Post Race Analysis for The Clark Handicap

Hopportunity winning the Rebel- Photo by AP

It doesn't matter sometimes if you are a visionary or just a bit lucky.  Sometimes you can do all the handicapping right and screw up the bet construction,  sometimes you can get it all wrong, or sometimes you can pass on a bet that hits.

My sin today was not betting a Super that I had nailed cold.  I focused on a Tri, didn't like the prospects of getting a return on investment and passed.

 In my pre race handicap, I had some good thoughts, but they hinged around Departing winning and Hopportunity and Constitution giving a very good showing of themselves.  Most of that happened.  I also liked the class of Protonico and the spunk of Pick of the Litter, and that was useful too.

I couldn't settle on a bet.  I ultimately liked this bet the most:

4-1-7 OVER 1-4-7-5-6-9 OVER 1-3-5-6-7-9, a $2 Tri for $134.

It just seemed illogical to me to invest that sort of cash into a race where I had the Tote boards 1-2-3 horses in my top three.  I've mastered the art of turning $100 into $50 at the race track and I try hard to avoid that.

What did I do?  I passed.  I didn't bet.  That's a skill I didn't possess in my 20's and 30's but I developed over time.  I could have bet $134 and made $300, not shabby, but I wasn't feeling it and I passed.  I will say I liked Hopportunity before the race and but I was surprised he took the chalk.  The bettors were right on Departing who will end 2014 on a much lower note than he ended 2013 with.

Moral to the story?  There is no moral, do your homework and assemble my base bet.  I had three horses (in blue) I thought could win and four more I thought had the potential to win the Trifecta. If I boxed them it would have been a losing investment, with a $420 price and a $120 loss.

I'm normally a Superfecta Bettor.  I had the Superfecta nailed.  A boxed bet wouldn't have worked at $1680,returning $1,540 for a $140 loss, but my matrix style Superfecta I normally play would have hit and hit hard:   4-1-7 OVER 1-4-5-6-7-9 OVER 1-3-5-6-7-9 OVER 1-3-5-6-7-9, a $2 bet for $472 would have returned a gain of $1,068.

I never get too emotional about money I leave on the table.  My approach is to treat each win and loss the same, analyze, see if there is anything to glean, and then move on.

Moving on....Turk out!

Thanks DRF 

The Nomination Is In: The Clark Handicap G1 at Churchill Downs

Departing (Photo by Reed Palmer Photography)

The Clark Handicap is a post Thanksgiving tradition for me like many racing fans.  It's a Grade 1, usually including some of the handicap divisions greats, vying for a last big win, possibly in an attempt to leaving a lasting impression with Eclipse Award voters.  This years, edition, not so much.  It might even be subtitled " Former Derby Darlings trying to get back to their winning ways"  as Hopportunity and Constitution were two of the biggest names in racing in February, but oh what a difference 9 months can make.  It may not be the handicap division all star game that I'd prefer, but in the horse racing game these days, you get what you get.

The track should be fast, even if the temperature a bit brisk.

Lets get after this!



I'm looking for the breakout performance that never seemed to happen this year for Departing.  Lost by a neck last time out to Pick of the Litter at KEE.  It was right there for him and he lost.



Distance isn't an issue for Departing; 3 of 3 in the money at CD, 4 of 5 in the money in 2014, 7 of 9 in the money at the distance, and a bullet 11/13 at 4f in :48 flat.

The next two are a coin toss for me, they could both win, they could both finish out of the money, I have no real notion how they will respond. Of the two, I like Hopportunity a bit better. 2nd race off the long layoff, something Baffert hits on 27% of the time.  Loved his Rebel, will see what he's got.  It means nothing today, but let's watch and remember this year's trail runners.



While we are on the nostalgia trail (which means NOTHING in racing for current form), let's look at the dream trip Constitution had in the Florida Derby.



The 3 YO Tapit would have been retired in the past, and the racing game needs more stars to come back and run, so it would be a boon to the sport to see runners like Constitution and Hopportunity find their second acts.

Today, I'm just thinking of their Class.  In a Class review, these two are near the top of the pack.  Current Form, I'm not sure.  As I said, either could win, both could finish far up the track.  I'm going to cover both and see what happens.

The next four runners I have slotted will make or break my betting I reckon, and the rest of the field I've tossed.

Easter Gift, a five year old Hard Spun (is that possible?  Time goes by too quickly!) is 0 of 2 at CD, 1 of 5 at the distance, a bit slow.

Pick of the Litter is capable of Show to Fourth, I don't think the win.  4 wins in 7 runs at the distance, 4 of 5 in the money at CD but only one win in 5 CD dirt starts.  Comes in off G2 Fayette that's posted above.

Knights Nation, 4 YO gelding, has 13 of his 18 starts on Turf and owns 1 dirt win.  Slow, but will be coming late.

Prontonico, 3 YO Giant's Causeway, I don't know what to make of.  First trip to CD. Won G3 Discovery last time out in slop.  I'm not sure I put much on that. 3 of 6 on fast dirt.  Classier than rest.



So what am I going to do with this?  The Trifecta I assembled I'm not thrilled with thinking about what the tote board odds may look like:

$2 Tri:  4-1-7 OVER 4-1-7 OVER 1-7-5-9-3-6= $56

I'll have to watch the tote board but chances are My Win and Place horse will be 1-2 on the tote board.  A $56 investment would most likely provide a negative return.

I may want to play with some combinations like this:

$2 Tri:   4 OVER 9 (value) OVER 1-7-5-9-3-6 =$10  another alternative may be 4 OVER 9 OVER 6 for $2 and not loose any sleep over it.

In this bet I single Departing (eh), single a Place horse (perhaps one of the late hard runners) and then drop in 5 into Show spot.

Again, I'll be watching the tote board to get a feel for what other bettors think before I decide on the investment.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for the River City Handicap G3

Villandry: Photo by Reed Palmer

I'm not sure what the take away is on today's River City Handicap at Churchill Downs.  I guess I'll sum it up with a missed opportunity for me.

Silver Max falls to zero in two starts at this distance and it just doesn't seem like a distance that he wants.

Villandry was as I good as I thought he'd be.  I don't look at Morning Line odds and I was surprised by the Post Time odds that placed him second on the tote board, I guess it was more obvious than the Ol' Turk thought.

Hamp!  On a break since early September, Trainer Correas  was only winning 12% off those breaks.  In the 4 year old geldings last twelve races he's been in the money twice.  If you look at his running lines he has closed like a freight train but usually too late and the results weren't there.  We'll tuck his name away to keep our eye on.

Under Control (Brz) looked good on paper, and I respect Motion enough, but as I said pre race race, I'd like to see a bit more out of the 6 YO gelding.  I saw a nice closing turn of foot.

Anyways, keep plugging 'cappers.  Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The River City Handicap Grade 3 at Churchill Downs

Silver Max: Photo by Reed Palmer

Nothing like a handicappers holiday to refresh my handicappers mind.

The Turk hasn't felt very Turk-like over the past several months, as the demands of work have consumed any free time I may have previously had. I've added some efficiency to my job performance and realized that a little R&R, especially on my traditional handicapping and blogging day of Saturday could be possible.

But what to say?  I found the time, do I have anything left to add to my handicapping? Of course!  Ye' Ol Turk is always improving on his analytic skills and coming back off a layoff has done nothing but reinvigorate my mathematical mind.  Math?  It's horse racing Turk, what's up with Math?  It's all math friends, handicapping to me is the numbers on the paper, the incremental times, the workouts, the breakdown of the runners over a long and short period of time.  It's a crossword with 1,200 lb animals running about.  Betting?  Well that's just economics. I view betting as strictly an investment, an opportunity cost.  I measure success solely in terms of return on investment, and while I'm OK with breaking even over periods of time, I'm also realistic to know that I have to hit on a certain percentage of my exotics or my ROI won't stay positive for long.

I've been blogging for six years and my one consistent message has been to preach consistency:  do the same things, day in, day out, do what you do well more often than not.

For me it's about assembling a base handicap, tossing who I can, establishing potential winners and then developing an investment.  I like to blog exotics, but quite frankly Win and Exacta are my bread and Butter.  Not sexy, but I churn out positive ROI with consistency, allowing me to swing at the fences now and then.  If you can't consistently pick winners or exactas you have no business making an investment on a Tri or Super anyhow.




So what to make of today's River City Handicap? Well, the track should be Firm.  The weather is expected to be dry and cool.  I like these grade 3 turf routes.  The horses are the superstars of the industry, they are just honest animals grinding out a living on the edge of the big time.  A horse like Silver Max is the type of horse I adore: modest background, consistent, long career, successful.  18 of 26 in the money, 2 wins in 3 starts at CD, 10 wins in 20 turf starts.  He takes on the big guys in G1 matches and he holds his own.

Villandry is a bit of a stretch for me, but he's cutting back in distance, and I like his running lines of "gaining, gaining, rallied, all out, willingly" in his last five.  I'm thinking he could upset here but his lifetime stats don't give great hope: 3 wins in 11 turf starts, $191,000 career earnings, 10% of Silver Max's.

Gentleman's' Kitten looks dangerous and has been training over the CD turf course since mid October. Trainer Maker is 24% of the break and 25% over the grass.  Hernandez up and has won 30%of his races in 2014.  Freshened this summer after a few clunkers, last two encouraging.

Canadian Aldous Snow is first back off a break since mid September, something Trainer Pierce wins 24% of the time. A grade 3 winner at 1 1/12 miles over grass, he's been no threat in subsequent step ups in class to Grade 2 and 1.

Set the Sail I have too low in my base handicap.  I bullet this week at 4f shows quickness and fitness.  he's 9 of 17 in the exacta on turf and 5 of 8 in the exacta at CD on the turf.  He was Place in this event a year ago.  Lots to like, I'll be shading him up as high as Place.

Guys Reward is the definition of journeyman at age 7, with 40 turf starts, 21 of 40 in the money and 1 in 5 turf races a winner.  I expect competitive and I expect him to be coming late.  Show or Place not out of question but I'm gambling its no higher than Show or Exotic fourth.

I'm predicting Motion's Under Control (Brz) could be the one that screws up my bet.  A nice horse that I'd like to see more of before I back him.

I'm not sure of the bet yet but I'm thinking some sort of Super with 4-6 OVER 2-3-4-6-9 OVER 2-3-4-5-7-9 OVER 2-3-5-7-9, a $2 bet for $248.  That's too rich and I need to trim, so possibly I'll go 4-6 OVER 2-3-4-6-9 OVER 2-3-5-9 OVER 2-3-5-7-9, a $2 bet for $172.  I'll think about that a bit more.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis: Breeders' Cup Classic 2014

Photo Credit: Mark J. Terrill

Photo credit: Kelvin Kuo

I'm not even sure where to begin with my analysis.  Yes, my handicap proved to be a failure, but were the race results a sham based on Bayern's hard turn left out of the gate?

I don't believe for one second it wasn't a planned tactic to get to the rail and cause most of the inside speed to check hard.  It was an aggressive move by Baffert and Garcia, but what did they have to lose? A DQ?  They gambled with the move and then they were rewarded when they weren't punished for their actions.  They gambled.

Is that racing?  Who knows. Actually, by the fact my social media feed is blowing up, mostly in sharp negative reaction to the ruling, lots of horse racing fans think they know the answer to that question.

I lost my Super High Five Bet.  I gambled.  I gambled and bet against Toast of New York, a horse I had no real feel for.  My loss had more to do with my handicapping and less with the aggressive move of Bayern.  That said, horses did check hard, and the way Santa Anita plays, that race was essentially finished at first call.  California Chrome bounced back from the Pennsylvania Derby and ran hard, and I think he wins the race if it's two hops more, but it wasn't.  I think back to watching mighty Zenyatta fall to the back of the pack as Blame took a big lead.  Zenyatta, unlike Shared Belief, rallied on a very different track to make the most heroic run  imaginable.  There was still  11 panels of  running after the start, on a different track, maybe that matters, at Santa Anita, goodnight Irene.  In my pre race Video Analysis earlier this week I suggested I'd try Bayern in the win spot.  "Think long, think wrong" I can hear the toothless guy saying at the OTB.

You can see the Breeders' Cup Classic DRF Race Chart at this link.



The Turk is feeling refreshed after scaling back my blogging efforts over the past year.  I've been blogging since 2008 and I'm not quitting anytime soon.  Now if I could just improve on my ROI for THOROFAN Handicappers Corner posts I'd be a blessed man.

Beware the Breeders' Cup bounce.  Most runners go thud in their next back race.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Breeders' Cup Classic Grade 1

Tonalist: Photo Courtesy of Gene Kershner Buffalo News

Welcome Friends to the Breeders' Cup edition of The Turk and the Little Turk.  The Turk would like to thank the good people of The Thorofan for allowing me to share my opinions on such a prominent race with you.

About this time of the racing season, after you've been looking at these horses battle for months now, what is there to handicap? Well, quite a lot still.   The track, the post position, the pace scenario, relative class, current conditioning.  I don't need to know much about Shared Belief or California Chrome, two of my most favorite three year old's  since possibly 2007's Street Sense and Hard Spun, but I need to know how they answer my questions as it relates to today's race.    Notice I care about today: I discount most of what these animals did before July 1, not to take it away from them, its just not as relevant as what they did one race back.

 I love to read Past Performances.  I think its an amazing art form, how much information can be condensed down onto paper.  People who know me know I went years, pre internet, by picking winners of races I never saw.  My handicapping was purely off of paper.  I'm a better visual handicapper now, and I'm smart enough to follow certain bloggers who tweet from paddocks with physical condition and demeanor prior to races.  That said, I get a hoot from the PP's.  I love the pithy and concise comments that follow the running line.  Comments so short it makes a Tweet look like War and Peace, but over time they tell you so much.  California Chrome last time out ..."had no response."  Bayern was..."clear,strong handling" while Cigar Street "repelled bid, cleared".

Santa Anita faithful will tell you the winner needs to be on the lead or pressing the pace within 2 lengths at first call.  I'm good with that at 10 panels, but 12 tends to equalize things.  The sample size is small too.  With my Past Performances now, checking for horses on the lead at 1st call, or within 2 lengths, is as easy a clicking a box.  So much has changed to help the handicapper.

Are you a dogmatic handicapper, with angles and rules that you absolutely adhere too?  That sort of thinking serves you well in most races but at the Classic distance, I think you need to look strongly at pace, pace intensity, and which horses will be moving forward and which ones giving ground over that merciless final 1/16 of a mile.

Let's review the runners and the key prep races on video

Awesome Again G1:  1 1/8 Fast Dirt; 27 September; SA





Jockey Club Gold Cup G1: 1 1/4 Fast Dirt; 27 September; BEL



Homecoming Classic  $135,000; 1 1/8 Fast Dirt; 27 September; CD




Pennsylvania Derby G2; 1 1/8 Fast Dirt;  20 September; Prx




Woodward Stakes G1:  1 1/8 Fast Dirt; 30 August; SAR




Pacific  Classic G1: 1 1/4 Fake Dirt; 24 August; DMR




Travers Stakes G1: 1 1/4 Fast Dirt; 24 August: SAR




Suburban Handicap G2; 1 1/4 Fast Dirt; 5 July; BEL




I'm not sure I like where I came out with my thoughts, but let me get it down into the chart and then we can talk it through and perhaps even make a few tweaks.



Tonalist breaks all my dogmatic rules:  Only wins at BEL, first SA start, trainer my favorite turf master but I'm not sure I've ever bet one of his dirt runners. I love his late one run burst and that seems to be what I'm fixated on, but that implies he is in a pack close to the pace near the top of the stretch.  I'm thinking he will be sitting two to three wide and in a good spot to close.

California Chrome owned this track at the time of his Santa Anita Derby win.  His five race win streak through the Preakness was as close to goose skin tingling for me as it gets.  I don't put much stock in his Pennsylvania Derby, stuck on the inside, fighting a serious track bias, quite frankly I'm not even sure why he was there instead of a week later in the Awesome Again.   His connections are like lightning rods among horse racing folks I talk to regularly, but remember one thing: the horse doesn't care what you think of  Sherman, Coburn or Martin.    The horse is the same horse that was a monster early in the year.  I like his positioning, I just think he'll be going backwards and getting caught by Tonalist.

Shared Belief would be the easy thing for me to do to seem smart (I'd pick Cigar Street if I wanted to appear savvy). What a series of races he has assembled, but its amazing to me that this is his first showdown with California Chrome.   I am not ready to concede he is the best horse in this group on dirt, an Awesome Again effort not making my case easier.  Unless he has a horrible trip and misses the break, he should be as well positioned as Tonalist to push forward.  I think he was a bit exposed in the Awesome Again, win aside, and against a field of top shelf class I think he has as great a chance to be out of the top 5 as he has of being in the top 2.

Cigar Street is perhaps the most beautiful animal in the race.  On the muscle is an understatement.  He should get a get trip tucked in behind the front running speed, he'll have a price I'm thinking similar to Bayern and Tonalist and Mott is always a dangerous adversary.  This is a serious animal, I'd like to see him come back in the Clark Handicap and have a good late season campaign.

So what am I going to do with this base handicap? With a race like the Classic you can overthink it very easily.  Let's be even more frank:  How many legitimate winners are in the starting gate?  I'm going with six (California Chrome, Shared Belief, Tonalist, Cigar Street, Zivo and V.E. Day) with possibly two more (Bayern and Majestic Harbor) in the conversation.  It's not the sexy thing for a handicapper to throw his hands up in the air and say I dunno, so clearly this bald handicapper won't be doing that.  I'm going to do what you should do: have a handicapping opinion and stick to your guns.  Don't go hedging yourself like mad, just pick the horses and let it ride, you'll always be more wrong than right, but if you bet wisely you'll be OK.

I think the pace scenario is pretty straight forward.  We'll assume Big Cazanova doesn't enter the starting gate, but if he does, we'll lump him in with early speed. Moreno has been 1st at 1st call 16 of his last 21 races.  Expect him there.  Bayern has been 1st at 1st call 6 of his last 8 races.  Expect him there.   I think Cigar Street will be near the front from his 2 post as well.

I think the next group back will include Shared Belief, California Chrome and Tonalist and Majestic Harbor and just behind them will be one run closers V.E. Day, Zivo, Candy Boy and Footbridge.

My handicap reflects the horses moving forward and backward as the struggle to the classic distance. What I have yet to identify is a bet strategy.   I'm typically an all in Super High Five fella on these big day races.  It's a high risk, high reward sort of bet, definitely not for everybody.



On a race where you conceivably win over $50,000 with a 6-1 shot on top, I think it's a good investment.  I only need to hit one in one hundred to break even and I'm hitting one every 20-30, even though I've only broken five figures once, and a low five figures it was. No matter, it gets me juiced up and I work my ass off during the week so a little bit of blown off steam isn't so bad.

Whatever you do friends, have fun with it and bet responsibly.  Exotic betting should never be a dart toss and if you can't pick exactas with regularity, stay away from these sort of wagers.  Remember, its not just cash you are betting, its an opportunity cost:  What are you not spending this money on in order to gamble?  I hope its not food or the mortgage.  If you have a problem, seek help.

Turk Out!

Breeders' Cup Classic Video Handicapping/Preliminary Handicapping

Tonalist; image courtesy of Chelsea Durand

The Turk has been on the blogging sidelines since the Triple Crown season ended.  While still playing the horses, I reckon after six years I didn't have much to offer my readers.  I'm not sure I have much to offer now either, but it's time to start banging the keyboard and talk about the horses again.

I could go to the Breeders' Cup:  I've been to a few, and I'm going to be around Arcadia most of the week, but quite frankly it is hands down my favorite betting/investment opportunity of the year and I'd rather be home at Turk Central with two laptops going, an iPAD and all my information around me with limited distractions.  I love being at the track, and next to my family, my job and my church, I'd rather be no where else, but it's distraction city, and I just can't assemble my exotic bets very well when I'm there.  I'll be happy for all my racing pals who will be there, but The Turk and lil' Turk have business to attend to.

My efforts begin with just a video recap of the major prep races leading up to next weekend.  For the Breeders' Cup, I usually start at the July 4th holiday and go forward, as Belmont Day back isn't that relevant at this time of the year.  Current form, current form on dirt, and carrying speed at distance are what I'm interested in seeing, including the gallop out, so thank you to the video feeds that focus on that.

I couldn't begin to tell you who I like yet; clearly Shared Belief will be heavily bet, for good reason. Santa Anita Wins:  Bayern X2 (ALW/MSW 56K's),  California Chrome X3 (G1 Santa Anita Derby), Candy Boy X1 (1 Mile MSW 49K), Footbridge X3 (OC's 62K), Majestic Harbor X2 (Hollywood, er Gold Cup G1 28 June), Shared Belief X1 (Awesome Again G1), Big Cazanova (Arg) X1 (1 mile MSW 57K)

Ugly Santa Anita records include Imperative (0 wins in 5 starts, 1 place and 1 show), Moreno (0 wins 6 starts, 3 Place, no Show), Prayers for Relief (0 wins 3 starts, 2 show).

First time at Great Race Place: Cigar Street, Toast of New York, Tonalist, V.E. Day, Zivo.

I haven't had a chance to study the work tabs close enough to have a better handle on my handicapping.  My first blush gut call is as follows:

Tonalist
Shared Belief
Bayern
California Chrome

My hunt for value will have me considering Bill Mott's Cigar Street, and Bayern for top spot.

I'm really not sure yet what I have yet so I'll take advantage of the time and think a bit more on the issue

Have fun with this friends, Turk Out!

Awesome Again G1:  1 1/8 Fast Dirt; 27 September; SA





Jockey Club Gold Cup G1: 1 1/4 Fast Dirt; 27 September; BEL



Homecoming Classic  $135,000; 1 1/8 Fast Dirt; 27 September; CD




Pennsylvania Derby G2; 1 1/8 Fast Dirt; 20 September; Prx




Woodward Stakes G1:  1 1/8 Fast Dirt; 30 August; SAR




Pacific  Classic G1: 1 1/4 Fake Dirt; 24 August; DMR




Travers Stakes G1: 1 1/4 Fast Dirt; 24 August: SAR




Suburban Handicap G2; 1 1/4 Fast Dirt; 5 July; BEL