The Nomination Is In: The Stephen Foster G1 at Churchill Downs

 

    Welcome Friends to The Turk blog, where The Turk has been writing and ruminating about horse racing since 2008.  I'd like to thank the good people at The Thorofan for allowing me to share my thoughts with you today.  

    The Turk isn't much of a Triple Crown handicapper.  Truth be told, I'm primarily an older horse, running over a route of grass, type of fella.  I like data.  I like the data that a large field of turf veterans provides me.  That said, I've really refined my dirt thinking to ignoring the early part of the year and concentrating on July-early November, the run up to the Breeders' Cup.  The Stephen Foster  is generally the first dirt race I handicap in a year and this year is no exception.  Before we go too far, who was Stephen Foster, what is his enduring impact on our culture, and what makes the Stephen Foster an important race prospectively? 

    Stephen Foster (1826-1864) was an American songwriter known as the "father of American music." He composed over 200 songs, many of which remain popular, including "Oh! Susanna," "Camptown Races," "My Old Kentucky Home," "Old Folks at Home" (also known as "Swanee River"), and "Beautiful Dreamer." Foster's music became deeply ingrained in American culture, often reflecting themes of the antebellum South.  

    It's highly doubtful from the Turk's perspective that anyone under 40, and few above 40, would still consider Foster the father of American music, but at 58 I can say his songs were some of the first I learned to play and sing along to in school.  

    Foster's work has had a lasting impact on American music and culture. His songs have been performed and recorded by countless artists over the years, keeping his melodies and lyrics alive. However, his legacy is complex and controversial. Many of his songs reflect the racial attitudes and stereotypes of his time, which are now considered offensive (feel free to read the original lyrics to "My old Kentucky Home and you'll understand").  His work is an important part of American musical heritage, but it also serves as a reminder of the nation's complicated history with race and representation. 

    Some, not The Turk,  have done a re-examination of his work and its place in contemporary culture. The Turk believes you should consider historical figures contextually, based on the norms of their era, not against our evolution as a culture, which has righteously moved forward in race relations and attitudes.   Anyways, it's OK to understand Stephen Foster's impact on music, it's also important to understand some of his lyrics were racist, it was a more racist society then, and thank God we don't have racist lyrics anymore, just now someone get rid of Coldplay.  I digress.

    The Stephen Foster is a prestigious Grade I thoroughbred horse race held annually at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Surprisingly, it was only inaugurated in 1982 and named in honor of the beforementioned Stephen Foster and his "My Old Kentucky Home"  which associated with the Kentucky Derby.  If you want to have a beef with Stephen Foster's song, ask why it took 4 years after the race was started before the original lyrics were changed.  

Here are some key points about the history of The Stephen Foster:

   - The race was first run on June 26, 1982, and quickly became a significant event in the American horse racing calendar.

   - Initially, the race was classified as a Grade III event but was upgraded to Grade II status in 1988 and eventually to Grade I status in 2002, reflecting its increasing prestige and the quality of the competing horses.

   - The Stephen Foster is run over a distance of 1 1/8 miles (9 furlongs) on the dirt track at Churchill Downs (except last year)

   - It is open to horses aged four years and older and typically attracts top older horses from across the United States (relatively speaking!) 

   - Over the years, the race has been won by several notable horses. Some of the most famous winners include Black Tie Affair (1991), Awesome Again (1998), Victory Gallop (1999), and Curlin (2008), who have also made their mark in other major races. 

OK, enough Turk ramblings, let's get it on!  Let's look at some key videos.

17 May 2024; The Pimlico Special G3; 1 3/16 miles on Fast Dirt at PIM. Pyrenees/1, Kingsbarn/7 went for the exacta.  

3 May 2024; The Alysheba Stakes G2; 1 1/16 miles over sloppy dirt; First Mission/2, Steal Sunshine/8, the Winner and an also ran.  

1 June 2024; The Blame Stakes G3; 1 1/8 miles over fast dirt at CD.  Dreamlike/5 for Show.  Blinkers on today.  

20 April 2024; The Ben Ali Stakes G3; 1 3/16 over fast dirt; Kingsbarn/7, Happy American/3.  beaten Place for heavy chalk and also ran.

20 April 2024; The Oaklawn Handicap G2; 1 1/8 over Fast Dirt; Skipylongstocking/9 dominant chalk performance.  

What a field!  Its so rare that I say that these days but it is a very impressive group collected together.  

I could make a case for any of First Mission, Skippylongstocking, Disarm or Kingsbarn to win.  In doing so, I just discounted 4 straight winner Pyrenees who I think is tactically too slow, and mildly Dreamlike, who goes with Blinkers on for Pletcher today (18% Blinkers winner 65 starts).  I only discount Dreamlike because of consistency but I think is very worth a look at fair odds north of 9-1. 

I've rambled so long I'm going to actually keep the handicap very brief.  Looking at the weather, expect a fast track.  You can find track conditions and scratches and changes here.  

First Mission should win this race.  7 of 8 lifetime exacta, 6 of 7 lifetime on fast dirt, 2 of 3 exacta at the distance, back to back dominant wins and on Cox home turf  where he's training very sharp.  I will put him no higher than Place because I want value.  I like Disarm or Dreamlike in a deep stretch run to take the wire with both Skippylongstocking and First Mission covered in Place

As you can see, this is more of a betting strategy than just going with my base handicap.  If you are new to reading me, my chart is what I call the Base Handicap.  It's what should happen.  "Should" is boring and doesn't cover your losses over time.  My fair odds chart identified Disarm as running past his morning line.  I like the late speed and my gamble is a return to form.  

Have fun friends!

Turk out 

The Nomination Is In: The Mint Julep at Churchill Downs and Recapping Shoemaker Mile

Delahaye-Barbara D. Livingston

Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, where I specialize in handicapping older horses running over routes of grass, and I typically formulate exact bets around them. 

 Last week I talked about the struggles I've had this year with my work, and how it was affecting my handicapping. I've taken some time over the last few weeks to really concentrate on rediscovering a balance in my work-life balance. It will never be 50-50, that's just not how I approach my profession, but I've learned I can only sustain 90-10 for so long, and for me I've been clipping along at that rate for seven months, dating back to November 2023. I realized if I didn't take steps to clear my head and take balance back (the job won't give, only takes) I would burnout and be broken. Handicapping is a part of the balance. It doesn't seem like much, but hours go into one of these blog posts. I watch video, I update my databases, I pour over paste performances and race charts. A gambler can't do this, it's too much time. A track handicapper can't do this, it takes too much time. It gives me an edge, but low volume. Regardless, the mental escape it gives me is worth every second and takes nothing away from work. 

There was a time when I was wildly high volume, banging out whole cards at a time.  I respect that, but it wasn't for me.  I like to engage on one isolated segment of the sport, in this case, Turf racing older horses, primarily routes, because it allows a few things I enjoy:  larger fields, less focus than dirt which allows greater overlay potential, and just as important, identifying underlays, and then finally, really good older horses I can spend several years following.  I still think one of the greatest problems in our sport is the premature retirement to the breeding shed, denying casual fans a chance to get excited about known quantities.   I generally leave the "state of horse racing" stuff to people much more knowledgeable than me, but that's the Turk's two cents.  

So recapping, I'm placing an effort on handicapping each weekend a turf route that interests me.  Lets get after today's focus, the grade 3 Mint Julep at Churchill Downs.  The weather should be dry and warm.  Pay attention to track conditions and scratches and changes here. 

The Mint Julep G3; 1 1/16 Mile Firm Turf; Santa Anita  

   

The Turk never looks at Morning Lines as a tool for handicapping when I'm blogging.  I only look at the morning line after the handicap is complete and I'm building my fair odds assessment.  I had the top three exactly as Daily Race Form did.  Always pay attention to the tote board to get a feel for where the action is headed as post time approaches.  Remember, handicapping and bet construction are two very different things.  I'm not interested in building an exacta with a 2-1 over a 9-2 and neither should you.  Winning battles and losing wars is where that approach will get you.  When I first starting writing my blog, I struggled with the perception that if I wasn't "right" in my handicap, I'd lose credibility.  No, nailing $3 dollar will pays is not something to aspire for.  I'd rather lose six out of 10 races to make those four wins meaningful.  It doesn't often work out like that, but you get the idea.  I don't encourage normal fans to bet beyond what they are prepared to lose. The game is stacked against you.  The morning line odds added up to 129%.  I've routinely seen them up to 135%.  That's the track take, parimutuel at work, getting bigger and bigger as the handle slips and overhead and inflation rising.  Adjusting back to fair line odds is your best chance to identify those gems.  Sadly, I don't think I did here today.

So what to do with all of this?  The best two horses in my opinion are early speed, Delahaye and Heavenly Sunday.  Chad Brown's (23% turf winner, 20% graded stakes) Delahaye is 3 for 3 at the distance, 4 of 5 Turf races has hit the exacta.  Adding a 1/16 of a mile.  $550,000 price tag at Auction, by far the class of the race.  Expect this 2-1 to be bet down, maybe even to 6-5.  In this case I want that.  I have to make a choice:  Who is the best late speed?  my identified choices are:  Excellent Question (Walsh saddles I. Ortiz-21% at CD) but isn't very classy; Fuente Ovejuna (GB) with Walsh/Dettori Up, 1 win in 9 starts at this distance; Henrietta Topham, 6 YO, modest connections but training sharp, first race back since October 2023; Immensitude (Fr) with conditioner Bill Mott, and Prat up, goes in second start of career in North America.  Remember, all of these options have fur on them, if they didn't they would be overvalued as well.

I'm going to put Immensitude/6 OVER Heavenly Sunday/8 and Excellent Question/5.  Delahaye will get added to the ticket depending on the tote board.

This is a $2 bet for either $4 or $6.  

Finally, last week's handicap (I didn't bet) was the Shoemaker Mile at Santa Anita.  I needed to get my handicapping chops working again. 

The Shoemaker Mile G1; 27May 2024 Santa Anita Park; 1 mile Firm Turf

The Nomination Is In: The Shoemaker Mile G1 at Santa Anita

 

Bill and Wilt

Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog.  I'm taking the opportunity on Memorial Day to do what has been rare for me this year, write.  The Turk doesn't like to talk about work too much, but I've been very busy.  On December 31st one of facilities suffered an operational error, a spill of hazardous liquid.  It should have never happened, but it did.  Every process and procedure we had in place failed us.  When you face failure you can recoil from it or go at it head on.  It's a thought that is on my mind this Memorial Day, the idea of the bravest soldiers running towards gunfire and not away from it.  What I do isn't life or death like those brave souls who lost their lives and whom we remember today,  but it still affects me.  It's almost 5 full months since the event, things are mostly under control now, and the Turk who has worked almost every day for five months straight, is taking the opportunity today to enjoy his favorite sport, run over grass, and to forget, even if just for a little while, the real world at the door.

Another person who had to face the real world almost from the time he was born is Bill Shoemaker, whom today's Shoemaker Mile G1 is named after. Born so small, there was serious fear he would survive.  Kept warm in a shoebox, Bill used the tools that God gave him to amass 8,833 wins.  Think about that another way: Santa Anita has 11 races today.  If the Great Race Place ran everyday, for 803 days straight, he would win every race every day to equal that mark.  That just floors me.  11 Triple Crown Wins and a Breeders' Cup Classic.  Hall of Fame 1958!  Paralyzed from the neck down in a car crash, he continued his life, training horses and writing pulp fiction with Dick Francis.  I think we have seen the apex of horse racing within our cultural horizon.  It's a sport that just doesn't appeal to the youth of America, not even recent Triple Crown's could reverse the damage done.  It's too bad really, but each generation chooses what it cares about and the days of a jock like Willie Shoemaker being at the same cultural relevance as other celebrities of our day is over.  Enjoy it while it still exists.  

Let's Get After this!

The weather looks gorgeousweather looks gorgeous in Arcadia today so expect a firm turf course.  As of right now there are no scratches or changes but you can keep your eyes herehere.  

The Shoemaker Mile G1; 1 Mile on Firm Turf for 3 YO and Up

I'm not going to prattle on too much about this one.  Let's look at De Jour last time out.  Also keep your eye on Easter and Goliad.  

The Kilroe Mile G1;  3 March 2024 SA;  1 Mile on Firm Turf.  

Now Johannes, War At Sea, Irideo and Air Force Red (easier company in the G3)

The American G3; 4 April 2024 SA;  1 Mile on Firm Turf 

Baffert saddles De Jour, not someone I think of on turf, has Prat up and they are 25% winners in 20 tries at SA.  Baffert himself is a 10% winner on turf.  

Lots of early speed in this one.  I'm just going to be watching as I get back into the swing of my handicapping.  I've been handicapping for nearly 40 years, yet I still have to dust off and get into a rhythm, which I know I'm not currently in.

Have fun friends, Turk Out! 

The Nomination Is In: The Santa Anita Handicap G1

 

Newgrange: Benoit Photo

Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, now in our 17th year of writing handicaps and assembling bets.    While I primary write about Turf Handicapping and Exacta Betting, I still keep my dirt chops up to speed.  Thanks to the good people at The Thorofan who asked me to write for this week's Handicappers Corner, I'm writing about the Santa Anita Handicap this week.  

If you haven't seen, the race has been moved to Sunday due to rain concerns Saturday.  I'm handicapping as if it's a fast track and will adjust accordingly.  You'll find Scratches and Changes and Track Conditions here.  

I'm not a turf writer nor do I pretend to be one.  I'm just a guy with a red pen and an opinion on what's on the paper and what I see in the videos.  I have no special insights into the industry or the horse racing elites.  To me, that makes things simpler.  I jump into handicapping when the mood strikes me and I take a hiatus when I'm turned off.  I saw a few horse racing fatalities in person last year, grizzly ones, and I needed a break over the winter.  I'm glad to see Santa Anita moving the card around to try and avoid running such a prestigious race in bad conditions and the second guessing that would follow any breakdown. 

Let's Get After It!

Santa Anita Handicap aka The Big Cap:  1 1/4 Miles on Dirt

  

17 November 2023 CD; ALW $125,000 N1X 1 1/16 Fast Dirt 

Highland Falls (2 back) win as chalk.

13 January 2024 SA; 1 1/16 Fast Dirt San Pasqual G2;  Newgrange/Newgate/Mixto

4 November 2023 SA; 1 5/8 Fast Dirt Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance G2; Salesman (Ire) 

I can't say I love this as a betting opportunity;  Watch the San Pasqual and tell me if you see any kinks in Newgrange armor? Does he have an extra 1/8 of a mile is the only real question.  Last year's 7th with Dettori up had to have been a disappointment and D'Amato immediately cut him back to what looks like a comfort zone at least one panel or two less.  I put him as chalk but we won't be betting him there.  

Highland Falls ships in from Brad Cox, and the Godolphin runner has done little wrong last two out albeit in sheltered company.  He has a class jump to make from Alw/OC races but the Curlin in him bodes well.  

I only see Newgate and Salesman (Ire)  as the only other possible winners.  

Salesman has been training very sharply at SA for Mandella but this is first back since Breeders' Cup Saturday.  26 career starts for the 7 YO, 24 of which on Turf or Fake Dirt.  His widening win over a small field his last time out at an extra 1/8 of a mile was only impressive in how he was running with little pressure towards the wire.  Mandella has won this three times so don't discount him.

Baffert has two in the race with Reincarnate and Newgate.  I'm not sure what instructions he'll give Deltorri, but perhaps he should try something different and use alot of that early speed and see if it carries, but like Newgrange, I question his ability over this distance, going in a sprint just two back in early January.  

I don't think much of Reincarnate.  Mixto has 1 win in 9 dirt starts.  Sadler's Subsanador (Arg) is a wild card and a value add to exacta.  

So what to do with all this?  I'm going to make a low risk exacta bet of Highland Farms OVER Salesman/Subsanador and Newgrange, a $2 bet for $6.  

I'm the sort of horse player that doesn't need action bets and believes that the best way to improve ROI is to know which races to avoid.  I'm not thrilled with this race and given my druthers, I'd walk away but if forced to bet a $2 Win on Salesman and Subsanador for $4 doesn't bother me.  

Have fun friends, Turk Out! 

Post Race Analysis: The Mother Goose. "It's Just Numbers and Patterns"

 It's just numbers and pattern recognition.  While there are always outliers, if you approach your handicapping from the same place mentally, with the same application of thoughts applied to the runners, if you avoid the greatest traps of all, "the biases", you'll likely predict winners regularly and be successful with your handicap to at least have a fighting chance at assembling a proper bet.  

Two different sides of the coin, handicapping and bet construction.  I am a top shelf handicapper, especially with my approach to only handicapping in low volumes, but I'm just an OK bettor, much better as a bettor (say that three times) when I don't concern myself with losing.  That's a hard thing when you write about the races and your perceived credibility is measured strictly by wins and losses.  It took me a long time to realize that the only person who will ever truly know at how good I am at the horse game is me, and once I realized that, I stopped picking chalk to win in these written blog posts and started picking the best risk/reward combinations.  I always did that when I was just sitting in the stands and banging out bets, but it's more difficult than you might imagine when you write out the handicap and you are sticking your ass and credibility out there.  Anyways, I've been doing this a very long time and my closest readers know my handicappers eye, that's all I really care about.  

Bias.  Avoid the biases

•     Authority Bias:  Morning Line or TV Personality picks.  
•    Bandwagon Effect:  Putting aside my fan instincts.
•    Confirmation Bias:  Keep an open mind and don't prejudge the outcomes prematurely. 
•    Recency:  Important, but not everything.  Where are these athlete's in their cycle?
  

You'll find the Race Replay here at NYRA Website, I wasn't able to find a shareable Youtube video yet.  

As I said prerace, Xigera was heavy chalk and I predicted 5 out of 10 times he would win this race.  The real key is always identifying horses that can run better than their odds and horses that don't deserve their short odds. I already identified that Xigera deserved short odds, but look at Defining Purpose, fourth down the tote board at $7.2-$1 odds.   I thought she could match Xigera early (she did) I thought she could be better late (she couldn't).  Still, a simple $1 Exacta Box of these two returned $8.20 on a $2 investment.  That's how you make money better favorites in the Exacta.  

If you boxed my top four in the Superfecta a $1 bet for $24 returned $63.50.  It ultimately comes down to the handicapper's secret weapon, the Fair Odds table. I didn't win these bets, I would have never placed these bets, but the handicap and the analysis pointed to these selections and this race is a classic "don't overthink it" example.  Undervalued Asset was early speed and hadn't been past 6.5f.  Foggy Night was slow overall but had early speed.  Julia Shining has the flashy pedigree but doesn't know what she is, nor does Peak Popularity.  You see these sorts of patterns every week.  A handicapper must learn to understand why a horse is entered into the particular race and what the plan is for that horse by the connections.  

Xigera, if she comes back as a 4 YO, will be fun to watch.  Everyone else, what is the plan?

 It's all numbers friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Grade 2 Mother Goose at Aqueduct (It's not Belmont!)

 

Xigera:  Photo credit Coady Photography (thank you)

 Welcome friends to The Turk Blog.  I'd like to thank the good people of The Thorofan for allowing me to share my thoughts with you today.  

I've been on a Handicappers Holiday since late August.  Just like the horses need to go the the farm and freshen up, I find that my handicapping is better when I take some time away.  I've already started Breeders' Cup video preparation so this weekend is a good time for me to start looking at past performances again, and The Mother Goose at Belmont at the Big A is a good handicapping challenge for me.  Why?  These runners, most of who are Breeders' Cup eligible, most likely didn't peak well enough to earn a place on World Championship weekend.  It doesn't mean they are bad horses, it's just that their current condition wasn't where it needed to be in some of the key races in August, September and early October.  I count five graded stakes win amongst the seven horses, a G1, a G2 and three G3.  There is a lot to prove from the classiest of runners here, yes I'm looking at the $435,000 purchase of Peak Popularity, the $625,000 Occult, the $225,000 Julia Shining and the $190,000 Xigera.  I also think it's ok at this time of the year to start and  second guess the tactics of horses having underwhelming seasons who are in the barns of the mega trainers.  Two Browns and a Pletcher here that fit that description,  and I think it's fair game to question the choices made in their three year old campaigns.  I'm of the mind that owners should not be so differential to the Big Barns and get some more personalized attention with smaller outfits, but I'm just a handicapper and a fan of this game for the better part of 40 years, what do I know.  

Anyways, my other rule as a handicapper is to not worry about what runners aren't here, or what the field's overall quality is, just handicap what's on the paper and what you see in the video.  Let's get after it!

The weather should be beautiful and I'd expect the track to be fast, but check here for scratches, changes and track condition.   

Let's start with video of  the runner's last starts.  

The Cotillin G1:  1 1/16 miles over slop at PARX;  23 September 2023; Foggy Night/1, Occult/5, Defining Purpose/7 

Seneca Overnight Race 9 23 September 2023:  1 1/16 on Fast Dirt

Allowance $115K N1X; SAR 1 1/4 miles off turf sloppy dirt:  Peak Popularity/2

The Alabama G1;  SAR 1 1/4 Miles Fast Dirt; Julia Shining/3  Defining Purpose/7

The Gallant Bloom G2:  BEL Big A; 1 October 2023 6.5F Fast Dirt; Undervalued Asset/4

I don't think this was an overly difficult field to handicap on paper, but the video was an exercise in trying to see potential that hasn't translated into performance. 

Xigera is the most impressive to me.  In a recent interview with the NYRA press, trainer Bauer said "...we made sure the work two out (from the Breeders' Cup) was a good one and we were still trying to decide if we were going to fly out to California.  We talked in circles about it and decided that maybe the best thing at the moment would be to get her a graded black type win, if we can."  That seems like a logical and reasonable approach and she comes in with by far the most impressive last race out.  Exceptional early speed, this versatile Turf and Dirt runner comes to NY after training up exceptionally well.  Heavy chalk. 

Defining Purpose cannot be overlooked.  A good place at 14-1 odds in The Alabama before a flat Cotillion in the slop at Parx last time out and a Grade 1 winner at 20-1 at KEE and a Grade 3 winner in the Indiana Oaks.    McPeek/Alvarado are not a very successful pairing.  Will keep pace early and possibly be better late. 

Occult is a bit of a wild card.  Very classy, Brown/I. Ortiz combo sizzles, but just hasn't found her defining moment as of yet.  Destroyed a pretty weak Monmouth Oaks field for a Grade 3 win at $1.40-1 odds.  Rallied, but didn't seem to ever really stretch in the slop of the Cotillion.  Went off at 27-1 in the Acorn at Belmont and finished a so-so Place to Pretty Mischievous.  What do I know, but maybe a different barn than Brown's would be a better place for her.  Dangerous, but hard to depend on the danger.  

I have similar thoughts on Julia Shining: I am no pedigree expert but the daughter of Curlin and Dreaming of Julia  is having what can only be described as a disastrous 3 YO campaign after winning a Grade 2 at Aqueduct in the slop last December.  Two Place finishes, a freshening up and a terrible 57 lengths back beat down at $5.30-1 odds in the Alabama.  The works have been steady since mid September and Castellano gets the mount from Saez.  Dart throw as to which filly shows up.

Undervalued Asset is another Brown runner and makes the sprint to route jump, stretching out from the 6.5 f of her last race.  I'm not sure why she hasn't run past 8f yet, but what do I know, especially with 1 win in 6 tries this year and 3 Place finishes where she was moving forward at the wire.  

So what do I do with all this?  I like Xigera a lot and toyed with making her shorter than 7-5 (42%)  in my fair odds chart.  I also have no interest in betting her if her odds shorten from her Morning Line of 6-5.  I'm thinking something along the lines of $2 Exacta 7-5-3-4 OVER 6 for $8.  I like the risk/reward of putting the heavy chalk in the Place spot but I think if this race is run ten times she wins maybe 5 times and the Bauer team gets rewarded for their patient approach.  

Have fun friends!  Turk Out

The Nomination Is In: The G1(T) Sword Dancer and the G1 Travers Stakes

Three Generations of Turk: 2007

 Welcome Friends to the Turk Blog, where we specialize in turf handicapping and exacta bet construction.  I was telling a co-Worker friend of mine this past week that I started using "The Turk" moniker because I was afraid that my employers would think I did not take my fiduciary responsibilities seriously if I was a gambler (and in my case gambler is lower case g.) How the times have changed in modern society, where just in my lifetime you couldn't get a corporate job with long hair, long beard and tattoos, or in my case, by being a degenerate gambler type.  We use to judge many books by their cover and we had the social constructs of the era guide our biases.  I don't know if it's better, or worse, but life is different in America, in everyday life, and horse racing is no different.  It's days like Travers Day that remind me of horse racing in the mid 80's when I started to attend tracks.  Perhaps fewer cosplay gamblers back then, but lively crowds nonetheless.  I'm not the old guy railing about change, just observing.

If your a parent like I am, the end of August is nearing the unofficial end of summer, with the kids going back to school soon.  While Little Turk is no longer the elementary school boy he was when we attended the 2007 Travers and he blindly picked Grasshopper who nearly upset the Kentucky Derby champ, Street Sense, I still think of Labor Day weekend next week as the unofficial ending of summer and I start to turn my attention towards Breeders' Cup.  The circle of life in a horse players year.

I have to think I'm not the only one that walks into Saratoga and thinks about the ones no longer with us.  I think about my Dad every time I'm there.  My last visit with my father was  Alabama Weekend in 2013, ten years ago.  What I wouldn't give to have a time capsule, but being there is the closest thing to having one.  

Anyways, let's get after this!  The Dirt Track is listed as Muddy Currently and the Inner Turf as Good.  Stay tuned here for Scratches and Changes and Track Conditions.  So far no scratches in 11 or 12.  

First up, the 7 horse Sword Dancer.  

The Bowling Green G2: 1 3/8 Miles on Good Turf, SAR; 30 July 2023

Today's seven horse field lacks much front end speed, so Channel Maker's game plan will most likely mirror the Bowling Green.  I don't see it happening with the extra distance and pressure from possibly Prat, up on Stone Age (Ire).

Where will pressure on Channel Maker come from? 

Watch Pioneering Spirit open up in the stretch last time out OC62K 27 July at SAR.  The horse has come a long way since a March gelding and  a claim out of Pletcher's barn and into Rice's.  6 of 7 ITM  in 2023.  4 Wins in 6 turf starts.  

Bolshoi Ballet (Ire) has the class, the connections, but current form after running at Ascot 29 July I question.  Feels more like step one of a  Breeders' Cup prep plan from Conditioner O'Brien.  25 months since last win.  

The beforementioned Stone Age (Ire) come back for Trainer Brown after running in Dubai in February.  Prat and Brown have racked up 98 wins over rolling one year at SAR, 21%.  Brown is 25% in 44 tries as 1st time Trainer and 30% in 191 starts on a +180 Day layoff.  His gaudy 24%/889 Turf Start and 27% in 1158 Routes and 22% in Graded Stakes in 342 starts are hard to put in context with other trainers.  I feel like the four year old is also starting a prep cycle for Breeders' Cup but I'd be inclined to back over Bolshoi Ballet.  

Absolutely staggering morning line of 6-5 on Stone Age (Ire).  He's the class of the race, but it is first time with Brown and it is first time in a long time.  I've got no choice at that price to go after him and see what comes out of it.  

I'm going to build an exacta, $1 Bet boxing the 5-3-1-7 Pioneering Spirit, Bolshoi Ballet and Soldier Rising and  Stone Age for $12.  

And in The Travers: 

The Jim Dandy G2; 1 1/8 miles over sloppy dirt at SAR 29 July.  

The Belmont Stakes G1; 1 1/2 miles fast dirt 10 June 2023

The Haskell G1; 1 1/8 Miles on Fast Dirt at Monmouth; 22 July 2023

The Preakness Stakes G1; 1 3/16 Miles on Fast Dirt 20 May 2023

Matt Winn G3; 1 1/8 Miles Sloppy Dirt; EIP.  11 June 2023

The Curlin Stakes $130K; 1 1/8 Miles SAR 21 July 2023.

Similar to The Sword Dancer, Forte gets installed as a huge Morning Line favorite, and I'm going to go after him too even though his chalk is much darker than Stone Age's.  

I've posted alot of video but to me this is less analysis and more tote board odd gambling.  I'm going assume the track is not fast as the rains are expected to get heavier this afternoon.  There are some big wet Tomlinson's in the field with exception of Mage and Scotland.  I'm tossing both from my exacta pool.  My value choice is Disarm.  Adds Blinkers, training well, slop win and the best price.  

$1 Exacta:  6-2-5-1 for $12.  Alternatively, 6 Wheeled OVER 2-5-4-1 for $4.  

Have fun friends, Turk Out.  

I wish I could go back in time....Papa Turk, the Turk, Little Turk, one day together again.  

2007 Travers Stakes