Tuesday, September 8, 2009

Post Race Analysis for Race Day August 6th, 2009: The Vice Regent at WO and the Pacific Classic GI at Del Mar

Race 9 Del Mar Post Time 8:10 ET: The Pacific Classic Grade I; 1 1/4 Miles on Fake Dirt for 3 YO and Up.

Live and Long, Richard's Kid is a prime study in educated longshot selections. Two bullets pre race and three solid works since his last race, trained by a high level trainer (Hall of Fame Bob Baffert)and a great jock with Mike Smith up. Just based on the Past Performances, you never pick this horse. It's an angle you have to look for, and even then, its no sure thing, but it happens and it's blindingly obvious in hindsight.

Einstein and Rail Trip ran solid races and seemed to be caught off guard by the strong stretch run of Richard's Kid. Colonel John had a bad trip and had to check up a few times heading into the last 1/4 mile and never got rolling. Informed, my chalk, laid back and never really fired.

It was an odd pace with speed in front and the speed throttled back. That's why they run em'.

Race 8 WO: The Vice Regent; 1 Mile on Ontario Turf for 3 YOs sired by Ontario Stallion

In my pre race analysis I had Guipago with <10% chance of winning. In reviewing the PP I see nothing that would make me think this horse was primed to win this race.

That said, I was very surprised to see this horse rise up the tote board ranking as post time approached. I placed just a few Trifecta bets based on my base handicap with a few variation on the Show horse, all bust of course.

Sometimes, a handicapper has to move on. The races were a mixed bag for me, but a handicapper learns from the wins and the losses.

Turk Out!

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