Saturday, February 6, 2010

The Nominations Are In: February 6, 2010; Gulfstream Park Races 9-11 Pick Three

"Hey good looking, what cha' got cooking."

The handsome four year old son of Elusive Quality to the left is the Turk's heavy chalk in today's Grade I Donn Handicap at Gulfstream Park, Quality Road. Our gate loading bashful superhero is the headliner in a late pick three that includes the Grade I Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap and the Grade III Suwannee River. Good Stuff!

We thank Sarah K. Andrew for the wonderful photo of Quality Road chillin' at Saratoga, please visit Sarah's website when you get a chance, you won't regret it! Let's get it on.

Gulfstream Park Race 9 - Race 10 -Race 11: Race 9 post time 5:18 ET (spreadsheet attached).

Keep checking the scratches, as there have already been four scratches from Race 11 and just as I'm writing this, You and I Forever just scratched from the Donn. The weather has been dry but that can change and you can find the hour by hour at the hyperlink. The track is currently listed as fast and the turf as good.

I smoked a Gurkha Dragon Fury as I handicapped. It was heavy and meaty, and it was a bit too lumbering for me. My mood was already a bit sour with Santa Anita closing again with the heavy rains and an all weather track that doesn't drain.

In Race 9, a smallish field of six horses go to the gate. I've been a big Court Vision fan, Mr. R. Duttrow not withstanding, and I like him in this spot. Trainer Duttrow has just gaudy stats, but the 32% on wins off a 60 day layoff and 25% of routes are pretty hard to ignore. R. Albarado is up. I'm taking a low risk approach today and I'm only looking at a second choice, Take The Points for the pick three selection. If I bet the race and I'm looking for possible value, Yate's Black Cat most likely will be the 4th or 5th bettor's favorite and has a legitimate shot coming off a nice GP 1 1/8 turf win January 22.

In Race 10, The Donn Handicap, I'm singling Quality Road. That said, I like the exotic opportunities here although 10 Cent Supers aren't in fashion, I'll be looking at my base handicap and the tote board to find some value exactas. I'm a fan of Delightful Kiss and I'm happy to see him go to the starting gate today. Duke of Mischief and Kiss the Kid cannot be ignored.

And finally Race 11, because I'm at 2 X 1 so far, I'm going to add five choices to this race and we'll see if we are still alive if we can't find a way to not screw this up! I don't really like any of these runners that much but the top four in my base handicap I think are all capable and I like Long Approach and Cable the best.

Have Fun, Turk Out!


Amateurcapper said...

Great analysis once again!

The Turk said...

Thanks Rob...You handicap and sometimes you get excited and sometimes you go eh. I went eh when I mentally calculated the payout. Take em' as you get em'