The Nomination Is In: The Grade 1 Whitney at Saratoga

Charge It: Adam Coglianese Photo (Thanks)

 Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog.  I'd like to thank the good people of The Thorofan for allowing me to share my thoughts on this race with you today.  The Turk is in the Spa! Yes, for the first time since before COVID, I'm returning to Saratoga.   I lived in Saratoga in 1986 while I was training to operate Nuclear Reactors for the US Navy.  It was the 1986 meet where this casual horse racing fan from my childhood  became a closet race fan before embracing my red ink pen and nerdy handicapper persona after leaving the Navy.  Ironically I was stationed onboard the USS Louisville, SSN-24, Best of the Breed.  Louisville, with myself onboard, fired some of the first missiles on the opening night of Operation Desert Storm.  I digress, but it is funny the coincidences of life.  

The 1986 Whitney was won by Lady's Secret, the first filly since the 40's to win.  Some of my favorite horses since I became a full fledged fan of the game in the late 80's have won this race: Commentator in 2005 and 2008, Lawyer Ron in 2007, Tizway in 201, but 2010's Blame has me thinking about the Breeders' Cup Classic and an unbeatable Zenyatta, America's favorite, beloved.  Cody's Wish is on a Zenyatta like roll right now with the American public, I can't help but think could he be meeting his Blame today?  I was there watching in disbelief that Zenyatta, bad start and all, did not catch Blame that cold night in Churchill Downs.  Does this happen to me again?  Life is funny with the parallels and coincidences.  

I know as a gambler, that will be my intention, to bet against him.  I hope he proves me wrong, but this is a horse race investment and I'm thinking about high risk-high reward.  Let's get it on!

I'm expecting Fast Dirt.  The Weather is inclement for a few hours Friday but Saturday looks good.  It's a small field, six horses, so watch for scratches and changes here.  

Just a few relevant videos with The Met Mile the most relevant.  

8 July 2023: BEL; Suburban G2; 1 1/4 Mile Fast Dirt

10 June 2023: BEL; Met Mile G1; 1 Mile Fast Dirt

8 July 2023; PrM; Cornhusker Handicap G3; 1 1/8 Miles Fast Dirt

1 July 2023; EIP; Stephen Foster G1; 1 1/8 Miles Fast Dirt

Whitney G1; 1 1/8 Miles

Let's take a closer look at my handicapping analysis.

There are 4 wins in 25 lifetime starts at this distance!

It's been a very long time since I had a horse in my fair line at 50% odds to win.  Cody's Wish morning line is something like 1-2 and I have to think this horse will be the post time favorite.  Even at 66% win odds, there is still a 33% chance he loses.  As a gambler, with this type of underlay, and I think it's fair to call any horse at 1-2 an underlay going a distance they have never won at, and I want to take a swing at beating him.  

How I assemble my exacta?  Sitting here in Western New York on Thursday Night I'm contemplating wheeling Charge It OVER White Abarrio, Zandon and Cody's Wish, a $2 bet for $6.  For real value, I think I should go Charge It OVER the field, a $2 Bet for $10 and hope beyond hope that Giant Game or Last Samurai Place.  I'm not emotional about Charge It and quote frankly, I could swap Charge It for White Abarrio who I think is improving.   This is gambling, not an exercise in picking the best horses.  Always remember that and always try to exploit these feel good moments when betting dollars surge towards a fan favorite.  Yes, 7 out of 10 races, Cody's Wish walks away with this, but I just need Saturday to be one of the 3 of 10.  

Have fun friends.  Turk will be in the Clubhouse Section K with a bunch of rowdy degenerate gamblers, I hope to see some of you there.

Turk Out!