The Nomination Is In: Colonial Downs Turf Festival featuring the "Arlington" Million

 Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, with over 700 Blog Posts over the past 16 race seasons.  My primary focus is turf handicapping and exacta betting.  

The Turk's connection to Arlington was deep.  I've told the story many times, but I was stationed at Great Lakes Naval Training Center the night of the fire on 31 July 1985.  I was volun-ordered to get on a truck and about 15 of us were there helping with traffic and running supplies.  Flash forward and Arlington became a love of mine, with its lush turf and international turf festival.  It was my first race track vacation and it became an annual trip with my teen aged son to see the Million.  I also wrote many articles about the state of Illinois Racing, and how the corrupt and incompetent State government was killing the sport with their policies.   I don't blame the Bears, but CDI is not innocent:  They could have persevered, conducted more lobbying efforts, brought some races to the track, helped with purses, but no, they took the easy cash and again showed distain for the 'more than casual' fan. 

I don't believe in organized boycotts, although I think they can be effective, but who's really being hurt?  Blue collar employees, while the boss man sips champagne. I considered never playing a race called "Arlington Million", but who does that hurt? No one but me.  I can hate what happened to my beloved Arlington, I can mourn what I lost as a fan and a human, but I'm a turf racing handicapper and I remind myself the horses don't know or care about any of these first world problems.  They were bred to run and entertain us, give us pleasure.  It's symbiotic:  How many thoroughbreds would be born without racing? A tiny fraction of the 17,300-ish born now.  According to Jockey Club, that's already a 50% reduction from the 34,000 born in 2001.  That's startling when first read until you think about the shrinking of the sport, the industry, the field sizes.  How many Secretariat's or Zenyatta's were not born over the past 22 years?  Don't think about it.

That is an angle to consider when you think about the Europeans. There was a time when most of the Euro's on a turf festival day had to be respected.  As hard as it was to evaluate them on an apples to apples basis,  you could see the quality of the connections, read the running lines, and just know you had to include them or exclude them on not always ideal data.  Now, while anecdotal, I'm seeing fields get fleshed out with so-so Euro's, and the best not coming until Breeders' Cup final prep time.  

I'd be remiss to not talk about Maple Leaf Mel today.  I've seen breakdowns before, but I'm not sure I've ever seen one as horrific or shocking as hers last week. When I walked into Saratoga last Saturday I walked past the protesters who would be happy to see horse racing banned, not caring that Maple Leaf Mel would never even have been born if it were not for racing. We would have been denied the incredible stretch run the undefeated Maple Leaf Mel made as she was about to become a Grade 1 winner in The Test, we would have been denied the outpouring of love and support to the connections, starting with her Trainer, Mel Giddings and Football Hall of Fame owner Bill Parcells.  The NY Bred raced into imaginations and now into nightmares.  I'm glad Maple Leaf Mel was born, and I'm glad she ran, and I'm glad when she needed humans the most, in pain and shock, that she was given humane treatment, and I'm glad to get my regular reminder that this sport is about the horses and people that work with these horses.  Rest in Peace Maple Leaf Mel. 

Ok, lets get after this!

You'll find Scratches and Changes here as well as Turf Condition which I think will be Firm.  

 It's a deep field, even if class and quality is just a cut below the best editions of this race.  Notably missing are high end European's that were a staple of Arlington Park editions of this race.  Let's not cry any further for what was lost, lets focus on who is here. 

Catnip and Adhamo (Ire) have my top spots.  

Catnip is five of 8 Turf Exactas and 4 of 4 in the exacta in 2023.  Adding an 1/8 of a mile to the classic distance which he tries for the first time.  It's  a tough spot for a lightly run 4 YO,  but I'm intrigued and the price should be right.  

Catnip as a beaten Favorite on Haskell Day, the  1 3/8ths United Nations G1

Adhamo (IRE) goes for the first time since October 2022.  Chad Brown wins off of a +180 Day Layoff 29% of the time. 4 of 6 at the distance in the money, 7 of 16 on Turf in the exacta, the 5 YO has been training very sharply since early July in Saratoga.  

Those chalks of mine were as light as chalk get.  My next group of 4, and my top six in general, has little to differentiate them.  This next group are Turk favorites, the grizzled veterans.

Set Piece (GB) has to me the best late speed of the field.  Adding distance and running back as the beaten favorite over good turf at EIP on Stephen Foster Day.  At the back of a 10 horse field, forced to go six wide in the final turn, gaining at the end, just not able to get the trip Geroux, up, may have preferred.  Have to respect. 

Master Piece (Chi), now 7 YO, trained  by Dutrow, comes back after a yielding Turf  1 1/16 mile OC$80K on 4 July.  1 win in last 8 starts.  10 of 22 in exactas over grass.  Solid late speed.  Running well to Place finish, no excuses. Lezcano up today. 

Chad Brown's Rockemperor comes in off of a dog of a classic distance Manhattan on Belmont Day.   In what could be a duplicate pace scenario today, you'll see Strong Quality lead most of the race with it's good early speed, only to sink like a stone at the end.  Both Strong Quality and Rockemperor aren't in the frame when Up to the Mark blew the doors off this one.  I'm hard pressed to see this effort and think anything other than minor prize material.  

 

Never Explain, the $475,000 KEE sale son of Street Sense is at $302,000 of career winnings and a line of 17: 5W 2P 3S.   7 of 16 exactas over turf, no classic distance efforts, and cutting back 1/8 of a mile from the good turf Bowling Green at SAR on 30 July.  The ageless Channel Maker had easy fractions and plenty of stamina to seal this one off.  

What am I doing with this?  A 8-9-3-6-2 Boxed Exacta for $1 dollar will cost $20.  I'm including my top six with exception of Rockemperor, at my own peril.  I'm tempted to Catnip in the top spot and wheel him in my exacta with the other 4 below, a much cheaper bet, but I think the odds will be favorable and the will pay in many of these combinations able to cover the bet and give me a return.  That's the thought but I may adjust as we go.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!