| Horse Name | PP | 1/4 | 1/2 | 3/4 | 1M | STR | FIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold Phoenix (IRE) | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 61 | 31 | 11 ¼ |
| Stay Hot | 6 | 5hd | 62 | 6½ | 7 | 7 | 2nk |
| Spycatcher | 3 | 22 | 21 ½ | 21 ½ | 21 | 1½ | 31 |
| Mondego (GB) | 5 | 61 ½ | 5½ | 52 | 5½ | 4hd | 41 ¾ |
| Balladeer | 2 | 12 ½ | 14 | 14 ½ | 12 | 2hd | 51 ¼ |
| Dicey Mo Chara (GB) | 4 | 42 | 3½ | 31 ½ | 4½ | 6½ | 6¾ |
| Rastaman Vibe | 1 | 31 | 42 | 41 ½ | 3hd | 5hd | 7 |
The Turk Blog, established in September 2008, has a narrow purpose: We analyze Turf Horse Races and Form Exacta Bets. Little Turk has retired from the blog and is now a Chiropractor.
Sunday, September 28, 2025
Post Race Review with Video: The John Henry G2 at Santa Anita and Joe Hirsch G1 at Aqueduct
Saturday, September 27, 2025
The Nomination Is In: The John Henry Turf Championship G2 at Santa Anita
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| Mondego (GB) gobbling up lengths at the wire |
Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, where I specialize in exactly the kind of race I'm handicapping today, the Grade 2 John Henry Turf Championship at Santa Anita, competed by mostly hard knocking veterans of the scene. This is the Turk's favorite time of the year as a horse player, getting ready for final prep races for Breeders' Cup over the next two weekends and then, what turns into a video review of the year in horse racing, my prep for Breeders' Cup, which will be extensive this year, as I'm finally able to have a bit of work-life balance again and feel calm enough to dedicate the time I use to for that homework assignment.
I looked at the marathon distance Joe Hirsch Turf Classic G1 run at Belmont at Big A (Temu Belmont), and while the purse was bigger, the class of horse was greater (magnificent Redistricting, $14M Rebel's Romance and Far Bridge), I'm going to just enjoy that one from a fans perspective as the field is a bit small.
Let's get right into it!
2 Wins.
23 Starts.
The number of winners at the distance and the combined starts at the distance. The field is a mixed bag with the real class and proven graded stakes competitors Stay Hot and Gold Phoenix (Ire).
30 August 2025; The Del Mar Handicap G2; 1 3/8 Miles on firm turf. Gold Phoenix won his fourth straight and The Turk blogged it here.
The two prime win candidates will be challenged by some unheralded horses that are trying to break into contender territory from mediocre.
Rastaman Vibe: cutting back 1f off his very game OC$50K win at Del Mar 20 days ago. Trainer Knapp claimed him on that day and entered the 4 YO here. 13 SA Turf Starts, no exacta finishes. Woof.
Mondego (GB): Why do we watch video? Watch the Del Mar Handicap above and watch Mondego (GB) at the top of the stretch go wide outside and watch his closing kicks: powerful, long strides. Less traffic, slightly less early speed pressure, you can't watch him and not think he's very dangerous, especially Conditioner McCarthy and Kimura, Up, get him into the right place.
Exacta History: Life, Turf, Distance, Track
Tomlinson Analysis
Exacta Comparison/Class
Timeform Early and Late US Pace
Saturday, September 20, 2025
The Nomination Is In: Princess Rooney at Gulfstream Park, a Win and You're In Breeders' Cup Prep
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| Vincey Girl reelin' in Haulin Ice |
Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, where I (usually) handicap Turf Racing and build Exacta Bets. When you start to get to this time of the year, the number of good Graded Stake Turf races starts to dwindle. The next few weekends, but especially Saturday September 27 and Saturday October 4 are really the last few big prep weekends prior to Breeders' Cup. When I started thinking about what I wanted to blog this weekend, I had the Ginger Punch here at GP, a few races at Aqueduct and JRA, but nothing excited me too much. We do, however, have a Breeders' Cup win and You're in dirt sprint at Gulfstream, The Princess Rooney Grade 3. As I was handicapping and watching video, I forgot how fast these sprints are run at, and look no further than the opening 1/4 mile in The Sheer Drama below at :21.7 Anyways, this is a horse racing blog, I'm a Turf, Dirt and Synth handicapper, so let's get it on!
16 August 2025; GP; The Sheer Drama $75K; 7f on fast dirt
22 June 2025; GP; The Musical Romance $75K; 6 1/2 F on good dirt.
Haulin Ice and Vincey Girl, wow. Contrasting styles, complimentary combatants.
9 August 2025; Cnl; The Tyson Gilpin $103K; 7f on fast dirt
Reputation, at, 3 YO, is $450,000 Bolt 'd Oro filly who has won 3 of 4 races in 2025, including the Tyson Gilpin by 6 lengths. Deeper waters today.
22 August 2025; CT; The Pink Ribbon $250K; 7f Fast Dirt.
Another beast, Mystic Lake. only four horses, slow fractions, glorified workout.
21 June 2025; CD; The Chicago Handicap G2; 7f on Fast Dirt
Claret Beret with a long sustained drive up the straight, including a very game final 1/16, just beaten as 10-1. yes, this race is missing Vahva.
What to do with this all?
Mystic Lake was entered at PRX for today as well. I find it incredibly frustrating that they don't scratch sooner when its known the horse will be thousands of miles away at a different track on the same day. Whatever!
I'm just looking for value here and Ultimate Authority has an incredible closing kick. I'm looking for her to stay close long enough to unleash it. It will be a tall order as Claret Beret and Haulin Ice can sustain over 7f, while tactical Vincey Girl and Reputation will be ether as well.
3 OVER 1-2-5-8, a $2 exacta for $8.
The tracks should be Fast. You can find scratches, changes and track condition here.
Have fun friends, Turk Out!
Timeform Early/Late US Pace
Sunday, September 14, 2025
The Turk Blog: 17th Blog Birthday and 750 Posts
Post Race Analysis with Video: The Woodbine Mile 2025
Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, where I specialize in Turf Handicapping and Exacta Bet Construction.
Today I almost added to my resume: Magician. How to turn a big pile of money into a smaller pile of money! Luckily I didn't, but it's a good reminder to myself not to over bet. I've been playing Kentucky Downs for the past several weeks and I got a but caught up with high risk/high reward exactas. When you watch the closing kick of Notable Speech (GB) below in yesterday's Woodbine Mile you will realize that he was not just chalk, but heavy chalk, odds on favorite, nearly unbeatable in this field, barring a bad trip. The brilliant Buick, up, delivered on a classic trip just off the lead before taking it wide and down the straight after the final of two tight turns on the inner turf.
The handicap was fine. I handed out an A+ on Notable Speech (GB), a rare rating for me to give. I had the order of finish well enough to get a Trifecta, not a chance on the Superfecta with Naptown, 98-1 Naptown, just nipping One Stripe (SAf). Speaking of the South African, use the video to find the next bet sneaky potentials. He closed well from back of the pack in his first NA start.
The right bet was to single Notable Speech (GB) and put some value in the Place spot. It's a lesson I've learned many times, and forgotten just as often. As much as I want to beat chalk (remember they lose ~60% of the time), there is chalk and then there is chalk, and Notable Speech is the later.
13 September 2025: The Woodbine Mile G1; 1 Mile on firm inner turf.
Have Fun Friends, Turk Out!
Saturday, September 13, 2025
The Woodbine Mile 2025: Turf Handicap and Exacta Bet Construction
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| Gas Me Up takes the lead in King Edward at WO |
Welcome Friends To The Turk Blog, where I specialize in Turf Racing Handicaps and Exacta Bet Construction. Everyone needs a POV and that's mine.
Woodbine is about 70 miles from my house, just across the Canadian border and up the QEW. It's one of my favorite tracks and I especially love days like today's Woodbine Mile Day, a Win and You're In Breeders' Cup event and a premier Grade 1. Today's is a bit unusual as they are racing on the inner turf as the E.P. Taylor Turf course gets some work done on it. The race starts just after the final of two turns (also different) so the horses have much of the straight to angle for first turn positioning. I'm looking at Closers still to do well, but decent tactical speed to not be too far back coming into and out of the tight turns.
Let's take a look at some video:
2 August 2025; WO; The Niagara Stakes $120K; 1 1/4 Miles on Firm Turf, Outer.
17 August 2025; Deauville (Fr); Prix Jacques Le Marois G1; 1 Mile on "Good to Soft" Turf
As we start to prep for Breeders' Cup, an explanations of Turf Classifications from Europe is in order:
Firm (Fm): The hardest ground type, usually seen in summer when there is little to no rain.
Good to Firm (GF): Slightly softer than Firm, thanks to light rain or watering.
Good (Gd): Considered the most balanced and fair ground condition, suitable for most horses.
Good to Soft (GS): Softer ground with more moisture, common in early spring or late autumn.
Soft (Sft): Wet ground that significantly slows horses, requiring stamina.
Heavy (Hy): The wettest, toughest ground where only the most resilient horses perform well.
Before we explain all of them in depth, note that it’s possible to have two types of ground in one description.
For example, Good to Soft, Soft in places. This means that the track is mainly Good to Soft, but there are places of Soft ground along the way.
The most important factor to remember is the more it rains the softer the ground.
Firm (Fm) Ground
If we had no rain, the ground would be classed Firm. This isn’t as common as it once was because the racecourses now water their course to keep the ground safe. Basically, take the impact out of the ground so that less injuries occur. You will normally get this type of ground in the summer months. Firm ground means horses can run faster, and that’s usually when track records are set.
Good to Firm (GF)
After Firm ground, we have Good to Firm. This is when we’ve had enough rain (or watering) to take most of the firmness out of the ground but it’s still on the fast side. This is a lot more common than Firm ground because racecourses water the ground, especially if there is no rain forecast.
From a betting angle, understanding the meaning of Good to Firm can highlight value. Some horses bounce off this surface and run personal bests, while others find it too quick. Looking at a horse’s past records on GF going can often reveal profitable patterns overlooked by casual punters.
Good (Gd)
This is when we’ve had enough rain to take all of the firmness out of the ground. It’s fair to say that this is the best type of ground, and usually the type of ground that suits most horses. It’s easy to run on for horses and produces big fields because it’s the fairest type of ground. Of course, you may have horses who like really Soft ground. However, they could still race on Good ground.
In comparison to Firm ground where they would have to withdraw. Good ground is the most common type of ground at all racecourses – it’s just the perfect ground to race on.
Good to Soft (GS)
Next up is Good to Soft Ground. This is simply Good ground that is holding more water. It’s as simple as that.
We usually get this type of ground at the start and towards the end of the jumps and flat seasons (out-of-season ground usually). It would suit the majority of horses. The only horses that struggle with this are those that run better on firm ground.
Soft (Sft)
This is when we’ve had rain and it’s softened the ground, but the track can take more. Soft ground is very common in the jumps season, when we get more wet weather and it takes longer to dry out.
Horses will find this ground a lot harder to run on than Good ground, and the races will be much slower because of that. There are however, horses that excel on soft ground, and it would suit them better than racing on Good ground.
Heavy (Hy)
Heavy ground is the toughest test a horse can face – deep, energy-sapping conditions demand extreme stamina and endurance. Races on Heavy ground are often significantly slower, favoring strong-staying horses over speed-focused runners.
4 January 2025; Kenilworth (SAf); King's Plate G1 (One Stripe); 1 Mile on Yielding Turf
2 August 2025; SAR; The Fourstar Dave G1; 1 Mile on Inner Firm Turf
16 August 2025; WO; The King Edward G2; 1 Mile on Outer Firm Turf
Timeform Early/Late US PACE:
Exacta History:
Tomlinson ComparisonSaturday, September 6, 2025
The Breeders' Cup Win and You're In Kentucky Down's Turf Cup 2025 G2; Handicap and Video Analysis
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| Utah Beach making his move |
Wednesday, September 3, 2025
The $500,000 One Dreamer at Kentucky Downs: Handicap and Exacta Bet Construction
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| Temp Rail at Kentucky Downs ~ 25 feet 8/31/25 |
Welcome Friends To The Turk Blog, where we write about Turf horse racing and build exacta handicaps. Kentucky Downs is over seemingly just as it starts. A fantastic meet that I wish was a bit longer, but perhaps that would take some of the alure away also. Our eyes will move towards Keenland and Santa Anita Turf in the next few weeks as Kentucky Downs wrap up, and we have this weekend, the first weekend in October, and then Breeders' Cup as the next three big weekends, and really, the end of Turf racing until SA Winter and Gulfstream Winter kick off. The cycle of racing is part of what I enjoy, understanding that cycle has been disturbed greatly by the loss of Arlington, Hollywood, and the temporary loss of Belmont. We can only handicap what they race.
Thursday racing does get me excited, especially with these big purses. Today's handicap is the One Dreamer $500k, for Fillies and Mares 3 YO and Up that haven't won a stakes in 2025.
One thing I wish we had was better track website for Kentucky Downs. I really hate having to use Equibase but that's what we have. There has been minimal rain and weather looks good. I expect Firm Turf. You can find scratches and changes and turf condition here. Note the temp rail was at 25 feet a few days ago. Pay attention to this as the turf track gets worn quite hard here as all races are on it.
Here’s why the turf rail setting matters—and how to use it when you handicap.
What “rail at X ft” means
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Tracks move a temporary inside rail out from the “true” (0 ft) position to protect worn turf. You’ll see settings like 0 ft (true), 9 ft, 18 ft, 30 ft, etc.
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Moving the rail out narrows the course and changes trip dynamics. Starters are repositioned so the official distance is still correct, but the race shape and trips are not the same as at 0 ft.
Geometry and trip dynamics (the big effects)
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Narrower lanes mean a premium on saving ground. With the rail far out, there’s less room to loop the field; wide moves cost more and hit traffic sooner.
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Inside posts and forward trips tend to do better as the rail goes out. Speed and pace-pressers can control and save ground; deep closers are more likely to get stacked or forced wide.
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Outside posts in routes are riskier with the rail out: shorter run to the first turn plus less width increases the chance of getting hung out.
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Surface freshness flips. Rails out often use more outside lanes (sometimes fresher); when the rail comes back in (true), the inner lane that was protected can be firmer and faster. Track-by-track quirks apply—log them.
Timing, starts, and figures
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Run-up and turn geometry change with different rail settings, so raw times aren’t apples-to-apples. Lean on figures (Beyer, TimeformUS) and sectional context rather than final time comparisons across rail positions.
A handy ground-loss rule of thumb
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Each “path” is about 3 ft. Around two turns, being 1 path wide adds roughly 19 ft (about 2 lengths); 2 paths is roughly 4 lengths. On rails-out days—when more horses are forced wide—this penalty shows up more often.
Practical betting takeaways
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Upgrade horses who were forced wide or trapped on a big rails-out day; they often improve next time, especially if the rail comes back in.
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Downgrade effortless inside/speed wins with the rail far out; they may not get the same trip when width and flow change.
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Track-specific notes pay. Saratoga, Kentucky Downs, Gulfstream, Del Mar, and others have distinct patterns by rail setting and distance. Keep a simple log: Track / Distance / Rail / Style that did best / Any post bias.
That's a lot of effort and I can't say I do that for every race. I do think about which horses I like the most and try to figure out how they will be affected by the increased distance or the cornering. This is advanced class and quite frankly you can ignore rail position and get away with it much of the time.
Let's get after this!
4 September 2025; Kentucky Downs; Dreamer $500K; 1 Mile 70 yards
Those 70 yards don't matter that much; it's 1/3 of a furlong. Most of the horses here should have no issue with the distance, but you really should think of it more as a sprint than a route. While I generally would discount the early speed to not carry, in this case, it's not unreasonable that a talented and classy horse like No Mo Candy can use her early speed, take control of the race, and ride it wire to wire. Paying attention to see if Irad Ortiz goes, I'm not that close to what he's doing after the fall this weekend.
Pace Visualization:






