Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, where I specialize in Turf Handicapping and Exacta Bet Construction.
Today I almost added to my resume: Magician. How to turn a big pile of money into a smaller pile of money! Luckily I didn't, but it's a good reminder to myself not to over bet. I've been playing Kentucky Downs for the past several weeks and I got a but caught up with high risk/high reward exactas. When you watch the closing kick of Notable Speech (GB) below in yesterday's Woodbine Mile you will realize that he was not just chalk, but heavy chalk, odds on favorite, nearly unbeatable in this field, barring a bad trip. The brilliant Buick, up, delivered on a classic trip just off the lead before taking it wide and down the straight after the final of two tight turns on the inner turf.
The handicap was fine. I handed out an A+ on Notable Speech (GB), a rare rating for me to give. I had the order of finish well enough to get a Trifecta, not a chance on the Superfecta with Naptown, 98-1 Naptown, just nipping One Stripe (SAf). Speaking of the South African, use the video to find the next bet sneaky potentials. He closed well from back of the pack in his first NA start.
The right bet was to single Notable Speech (GB) and put some value in the Place spot. It's a lesson I've learned many times, and forgotten just as often. As much as I want to beat chalk (remember they lose ~60% of the time), there is chalk and then there is chalk, and Notable Speech is the later.
13 September 2025: The Woodbine Mile G1; 1 Mile on firm inner turf.
Have Fun Friends, Turk Out!
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