Saturday, April 17, 2010

The Nomination Is In: April 17, 2010; The Aqueduct Late Pick 4 including the Grade II Distaff Handicap

The are several nice stakes races going on today: Keeneland's Lexington Stakes, The Charles Town Classic, and at Santa Anita, The Santa Barbara. Instead of handicapping those, I thought I'd dig in for a little gritty Aqueduct action for no other reason then I'm a New York fella at heart. That's Justwhistledixie, with her connections from West Point Thoroughbreds, and previous trainer K. McLaughlin. She's under the care of Bill Mott now, and she's at a longer price most likely today then she's been in awhile. A smallish but talented field of six after two early scratches greets her in the Grade II Distaff Handicap, the featured race today at the Big A. Let's get it on!

Aqueduct Race 7-8-9-10: The Pick Four

Gather your information before you start. You'll find the weather here and the scratches/changes here.

Race 7 is a $15,000 claiming race for 3 YOs foaled in NYS. There are a few horses here that have had good efforts in the slop; Our Special Effort/1 has a career best BSF of 66 on a sloppy Aqueduct track.

That said, I'm going with what I consider better horses in the first leg of the Pick Four. Odessa's Hope/6 is a 4 Yo with D. Cohen up for Trainer Gyarmati. Blow Up/9 is dropping back in class for Trainer Toscano and Never Give Up/10 also drops in class for Trainer B. Brown. brown has great stats with 21% claimer wins, 24% Won Last Starts, and 25% 2nd Off Over 180. Considering singling.

Race 8 is a 6 furlong 40K N1X for Fillies and Mares. I like three here and I think the bettors will too: Risky Rachel/2 has a good win on slop, Spanish Luck/4 is trained by R. Reid who has fantastic stats and this horse has the most earnings per race of the field. Positive Pitch/7 is a B. Levine trainee with a win at the distance but never on slop. Thinking of just betting the first two here.

Race 9 is the Grade II Distaff Handicap. Tar Heel Mom has 3 wins on an off track which makes her hard to ignore. Justwhistledixie is a quality horse who hasn't won in four races. Mott drops her distance and brings her in after sharpening her since late February. Matchless Orinda will provide lots of early speed but will fight the slowing track as she goes. Trainer Pletcher's Hour Glass also has shown a strong affinity for off track and is the most consistent runner of the bunch. I'm going to bet some exacta/trifecta combinations straight and have a bit of fun with it.

Race 10 is a 1 mile turf affair, currently still listed as on the turf. Marina Market/5 goes for Trainer S. Asmussen for the first time, something he pulls off wins with 21% of the time. No turf wins yet but Asmussen is 17% on the Dirt/Turf switch. Sydney Road/10 has 3 Turf wins and 5 of 7 in the money on Turf. Ballast (Ire) has 9 turf wins and is 25 of 46 in the money on Turf. I am considering inserting Ballast into my Pick 4 as long as I don't exceed my bet allowance of $54 dollars.

Have Fun with it, Turk Out! Go Sabres!

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