Saturday, November 28, 2009

The Nomination Is In: November 28, 2009; The Cigar Mile Grade I at Aqueduct

With the green yoke is Bribon (Fr), The Turk's chalk in today's Cigar Mile at Aqueduct. In this Vanessa Ng photo Bribon battles and ultimately beats Smooth Air at the Met Mile, the highlight so far in the 6 YO geldings career. Trainer Ribaudo brings the Mark of Esteem (Ire) son up against a small but strong field today for a stiff test. Let's go!

Race 9 Aqueduct; The Cigar Mile Grade I; 1 Mile on Dirt; A Handicap for 3 YOs and Up (Google Docs Spreadsheet attached)

Scratches and Changes you'll find here. The weather can be seen here.

Bribon (Fr) has rested and trained since a Woodbine Mile effort that produced a running line "in touch, all out drive". His 99 BSF was nowhere near good enough to beat Ventura on that day but this is a quality grade stakes miler. Capable of a mid 100+ BSF. Ran a :59 flat 5 furlong work at Belmont that past week. Looking for tenth win in thirty starts. It will take his best effort and I'll be hedging down on 1/2 of my tickets to Place.

Kodiak Kowboy will provide a very stiff challenge to Bribon and is more then capable of winning this race. Coming in off a Grade I win in the slop at Belmont at 6 furlongs. Was pointed to Breeders' Cup but had some mucus in his lungs that needed to be cleaned out. 13 day break in works from 2 November to 15 November, with a sharp 6 furlongs in 1:12 3/5ths on that day. Looking for third Grade I win in 2009 and makes twenty third career start and is looking for win eleven.

Pyro, the supremely talented 4 YO son of Pulpit is the career money earnings leader in this race, but an erratic career it has been, making seventeenth start and looking for win number six and his first at 1 Mile. He comes in off a rather pointless trip to the Breeders' Cup where he was forced to again prove he doesn't like fake dirt. Has Migliore up today for Trainer bin Suroor.

Coupled to Pyro is his stable mate, Vineyared Haven, another Godolphin runner that coulda, shoulda been better by this point in his career. A nice 6f Grade I win in the slop at Laurel in late October and before that a DQ in the King Bishop, also in the slop, in fact hasn't raced on fast dirt since a Grade I win at Belmont in October 2008 beating Munnings and Cribnote, two that could have spiced this event up today.

So what are we to do with this? A small field with two potential winners coupled together and one toss, Vacation)that offers value without any real prospect of cashing.

I'm thinking low risk, medium reward bet strategy. Driven by Success comes in off a sloppy win at 6f and most likely will set a blistering pace as he did in the Met Mile. I'll take a position of betting him to Show and then mixing and matching a few Win and Place candidates in straight Trifecta betting. We'll have some fun and keep the exposure low.

Have Fun, Turk Out!

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