Saturday, January 16, 2010

The Nomination Is In: January 16, 2010: Races 2-4 at Santa Anita ; The Early Pick Three

The Turk printed several races today to handicap and was nonplussed. Some of the races had fields that were no more then five deep and some lacked any excitation as my French friends would say. From Sunland Park, to Gulfstream, to Golden Gate Fields I looked and felt no joy. After a trip to the cigar shop, where I enjoyed an Alec Bradley Tempus and a great conversation with a few older gentlemen, I decided that the best thing to do was a pick three and make some excitement where there may not be any.

I had the Past Performances for Santa Anita already printed for Race 3, the Grade III San Rafael. On its own, the race offers little: A five horse field with a wildly heavy duty Baffert/Gomez chalk called Conveyance dominating the landscape. On the front end is a $44,000 Maiden Special Weight and on the back end is a $10,000 claimer. Let's get after it!

Santa Anita Races 2-4: The Pick Three

Race 2 is a 6.5 furlong downhill turf course affair for F&M Maidens 4 YO and Up. The field is currently at 8 horses with the 1 and 1A Coupled. If singling,#3 Aprisa Luna making her second career start interests me. She lost by a neck at 6f on the fake dirt at HOL in December for trainer Ellis. #2 Susan's Wildcat is a Sadler trainee trying to break her maiden on race 12 with Gomez up. #5 is Poetic License, a Canani trainee on lasik for first time, training well and making her first North American start. My last toss (usually a kiss of death for ye'Ol Turk) is the #8 horse, Khendum, a Moss owned, Shireffs/Mike Smith runner. It's the second start for the More then Ready 4 YO and Shireffs trainer stats for this type of race and this type of runner are pretty ugly.

In the San Rafael, a 1 mile route on fake dirt, #3 Conveyance is the wildly heavy chalk and makes this pick three payout sorta blah if he wins. Conventional wisdom is to single this horse but I'm adding #2 Domonation to the mix just in case to provide some upside. Last toss here was #5 Via Verde, training sharply and coming off a race where the saddle slipped and blinkers are off, something Sadler converts on 29% of the time.

In Race 4, a 1 mile $10,000 claimer on fake dirt, there were several horses I liked and one sad entrant. #5 Heroi De Bafra (Brz) ran in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap in 2009 and the Del Mar Handicap in 2008. A $45,000 claim a year ago, he's an 8 YO gelded fire sale today. Best of luck and I hope there is a good home for you when your days are over at the track. I like #6 Midwesterner here, but not by much and #4 Changing (Arg)is also in the mix with a last toss of #8 Mr. Wolverine.

This is a 3 X 2 X 3 bet at $1 for $18 total, low risk, medium reward.

Have Fun, Turk Out!


EquiSpace said...

At least your AB Tempus didn't cost you 200 beans like your last Fuente did...LOL. Sorry I missed you this morning...had to work.

The Turk said...

I had a great time at the smoke shop today. I hung out with the old timers and they treated me like a long lost son. Good times! Yeah, the cleaning lady who I tipped well blew me in. I went to a park in California a few trips back and it was a no smoking park. WTF was all I could think.