Sunday, January 17, 2010

The Nomination Is In: January 17, 2010; Santa Anita Park Pick Three Races 6-8

The Turk had some fun with a low risk, and ultimately no reward day yesterday on a Pick Three at Santa Anita so I thought I'd do it again. I hit two out of three on a 3 X 2 X 3 $1 dollar, $18 dollar total bet that paid $33 dollars because of wins by two very favored animals.

I think the moral of this type of bet is to keep the risk low but don't bother betting it if you don't think you can make a case for the bettor's second or third or even lower choices, as chalk hunting won't pay off and this is a harder bet and costs a bit more then say a 10 cent super with a five horse box.

Ok, let's get after it!

Santa Anita Park Races 6-7-8; The Late Pick Three; First Post Time 6:06 ET

Right off the bat you'll notice I've sized the bet to fit the maximum I want to wager. Today's Pick Three is a 2 X 3 X 3 for $18 dollars. I have ranted before about how much I have enjoyed various handicapping books only to have my stomach turn when I read the money management sections of those tomes. Money management is a personal decision and your decision should be to carve out positive ROI using whatever manner of bet gives you the best chance to do that. I generally avoid multi race bets that include N1X,
N2X, OC ALW, as they are just fraught with too many intangibles. That said, they are fun and occasionally I like to just have fun and not focus on the workmanlike, salt mine worker mentality that I often need to scrape out positive cash on these heavily scrutinized stakes runners that I favor. I built a bet with a wager amount I feel comfortable knowing that I have a better chance of losing then winning with. This will get old very quick but for now, I'm amused. It's tempting to throw extra choices into these bets, don't!

In Race 6, a 6.5 furlong downhill turf course 32K Claimer, I chopped the 11 horse field down to 4 and then ultimately 2 horses, Noblety/3 and Crossing the Line (NZ)/7. I had the #1 horse, Figeac and the #6 Ten Meropa in the mix but this was the race I settled on getting myself to two choices. Noblety will most likely enter the gate as the bettor's favorite and Crossing the Line has won 5 times in 8 tries on turf and would give me more value.

In Race 7, a 6.5 furlong OC 80K/N1X fake dirt race for CA bred 3 YOs with other restrictions I narrowed the 8 horse field to three runners, A Plus Topper/2, High Success/3 and Runaway Bandido/7 with my last toss out Wolf Tail/6. Runaway Bandido will enter the gate somewhere around 3rd or 4th bettor's favorite and I like the horse to win after working nicely, a drop in distance from 1 1/16 in a 100K stakes race, and sporting Mr. Mike Smith up.

In Race 8, The El Encino Grade II, 1 1/16 miles on fake dirt for F&M 4 YO and up, I like Justwhistledixie/9 to win as the bettor's top choice, but she should get a better price because of the inclusion of Stardom Bound/7 in the field. I don't underestimate Rose Diamond (Ire)/1 as a possible winner and my last toss was Spirit Seeker/11.

Again, I think these Pick Three's are alot of fun, especially when you get past the first race alive, I just don't think they will help my ROI very much long term. That said, have fun and Turk Out!

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