Sunday, April 11, 2010

Post Race Analysis for Race Day April 10, 2010; The Blue Grass Stakes Grade I at Keeneland

I shouldn't be happy but I am a bit. I started handicapping the Blue Grass Stakes on Wednesday evening, as I had a Friday morning 10 AM deadline to have the handicap finished for insertion into the THOROFAN website. I handicapped off the preliminary past performances, sans morning lines. Right off the bat I knew that the bettors would be divided amongst these horses, as there just wasn't accomplishment to go along with thier quality and class. Nowhere in my handicap did I mention that fine looking May foal, Ghostzapper's son, Stately Victor. After reviewing the PPs again this morning, about the only thing I denoted in red was that the horse made some move in every race he was in and I liked Trainer Maker's stats.

So I created this handicap of a Superfecta bet and I'm watching the post parade and I see the odds line and I go from feeling bad about my handicap to feeling pretty good. I thought I presented a pretty chalky view of things to my readers but the Keeneland bettors thought otherwise, installing Interactif as the top choice and Paddy O' Prado as the #2 choice. I've done this long enough to not second guess myself, plus there was NO WAY if I did win but changed my bet could I tell my readers that I know I said this, but I did this, and wow, look at me I'm the f**king King of the World! I plunked down my "aggressive" pre race superfecta handicap for $32 dollars but here's the but, BUT I also did what I said I would do pre race, I placed about 10% of my total betting dollars defensively.

I expected to get some snide comments about "defensive betting" and I would have deserved them. It's not a good practice to have conviction and place a bet and then turn around and spend more money on some horses you already said wouldn't win. I said pre race that the defensive bet isn't always a good answer but when you don't feel like your bet will return much, and that your risk/reward is a bit off kilter, go ahead and do it and potentially you'll cut the loss of a lousy exotic bet by returning something with the defensive bet. Pre race the only time I mentioned Stately Victor was when I discussed using him in defensive bets. My eyes lit up when I saw the odds and I put him in the Place spot on two stright exactas, bet him to win once, and also dropped a win bet on Aikenite who was set to pay $11.40.

I'm still shaking my head a bit at how the race unfolded. Fast fractions for poly, not suicidal, but fast, and alot of pressure from Paddy O'Prado that forced other riders to go way too early. Stately Victor sorta walked through and went on for a daylight seeing 4 1/2 length romp. The Kentucky Derby picture, already a bit cloudy, didn't clear up at all, not that I expected a fake dirt win by anyone would have done that. I was disappointed that my handicap for the Thorofan readers was so pathetic, but hopefully some of them drew on my defensive bet theme as well as got a little out of my simple methods.

Race 9 KEE: The Blue Grass Stakes Grade I; 1 1/8 miles on poly for 3 YOs

As I also said pre race, you can handicap, analyze, make fancy colorful spreadsheets, but you can still be wrong. I was wrong and right today, not the bet I wanted to win, but I never turn the winners away either nor should you.

Have fun, Turk Out!

1 comment:

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