Friday, August 4, 2017

The Nomination Is In: The Test Grade 1 at Saratoga and 1st leg of Race 8-10 Pick 3

American Gal- Benoit

Welcome Friends to the Turk and the Little Turk.

As I sat down to start studying the Saratoga Late Pick 3 that includes The Test G1, The Whitney G1 and De La Rose 100K, I became enthralled with the Test field And decided this race was deserving of its own blog post.

Why am I enthralled? It's a deep, experienced field:  64 career starts/32 Career wins for the field of 10. There appears to be opportunity to get a very good horse, like for example, Vertical Oak, at a nice price of $9-$12-1.

The field also has a mixture of horses that have run in slop and sealed surfaces, which I'm afraid tomorrow's Spa may turn into.  I like the handicapping challenge and the betting opportunity presented here In this Grade 1 Three Year Old Fillies race.  This isn't what I would say "my wheelhouse", but let's dive into it as I don't want to cover any more than I need to for my planned betting activity itself, the Race 8-10 Pick Three.  Watch the track conditions and Scratches and Changes.  The weather is bad headed towards Saratoga.

Before I go to far, I'd like to thank the good people at Feedspot for naming The Turk and the Little Turk one of the Top 60 Horse Racing Blogs, checking us in at 59.  It was an honor, deserved or not, and nice recognition in an era where few comment or even read full blogs anymore.

The Victory Ride G3: BEL 6.5f Fast Dirt 9 July

A romp by 4+ lengths for American Gal.  Vertical Oak is running nice in the last 1/16th to get up for Place.

Summertime Oaks G2 SA  1 1/16 Miles Fast Dirt  17 June

Faypien had a nice trip, but the re rally she makes to hold for Win was really solid.

Jersey Girl 150K  BEL 6f Fast Dirt 11 June Chalon cruising.

The chalk Vertical Oak pulled up with bad start.  Chalon had a soft quarter pace :23.62, and :23.78 soft half, Chalon just dropped the hammer to 1 min 10 sec 6/10ths.

Miss Preakness G3  PIM 6F Fast Dirt  19 May

Vertical Oak in peak form.

Gold Finch PrM  $67K 6F Sloppy/Sealed Dirt  29 April

Vertical Oak in a sloppy/sealed Prairie Meadows setting career high Beyer of 94

Race 3 Maiden $75K  GP 6F Fast Dirt  11 Jan

Divine Miss Grey breaking her Maiden at Gulfstream.  5 wins in 7 starts in 2017

I could make a case for four horses winning this race.  It's not often I have four horses in my possible win spot so when I feel good about four I can either cover all four in my Pick 3 or I can take the best two or three prices and take my chances.

Faybien ships in from Santa Anita for Baffert.  I suspect she will be the chalk, the Ghostzapper oozes class.  Never raced a wet surface although Tomlinson is at my Mendoza line of 400.  2 wins in 2 starts at the distance. Training exceptionally well including a :59 1/5th  5F bullet.  Baffert's numbers are absolutely gaudy: 25% Route/Sprint (cutting back from 1 1/16), 32% 31-60 day layoff, 41% won last start, 30% dirt wins, 34% graded stakes  in 135 starts and 32% winner with Bejarano Up.

American Gal left Baffert's barn and is trained by Simon Callaghan.  I like Callaghan and Baffert. 
 Callaghan, who had Abel Tasman, lost the talented Quality Road filly and had no qualms calling out a deep pocketed syndicate,  "...China Horse Club purchased a 50 percent interest in Abel Tasman from breeder and co-owner Clearsky Farms after her victory in the Grade 1 Los Alamitos Starlet in December. It was intended that she carry China Horse Club colors in the Santa Ysabel. Prior to race day, Callaghan said he confirmed with the silks room that the colors were available.
However, Callaghan said, when Talamo came to the walking ring, he was wearing the Clearsky colors. Talamo was asked to return to the room and change into the China Horse Club silks, but the silks could not be located. Talamo wore the Clearsky silks.
“They moved her purely because of the silks,” Callaghan said. “It’s a pretty heartless thing to do. China Horse Club brings a lot of money into the game, but they bring no class.”
A phone call Thursday to China Horse Club representative Mick Flanagan seeking comment was disconnected during conversation. Flanagan did not return a phone message seeking comment.
The move was a major blow to Callaghan, who developed Abel Tasman from an unraced 2-year-old into one of the leading members of her division. The filly, by Quality Road, has won three of five starts and is considered a leading prospect for the Kentucky Oaks.
Baffert, who trains American Anthem for an ownership group that includes China Horse Club, said he got the call Wednesday.
“I was surprised,” Baffert said. “They said they were going to move her no matter what, and they asked me"  (Free 2017).  
Your Love is a lightly raced Chad Brown Flatter filly.  2 starts/2 wins, stepping up from N1X territory today.  
I really like Vertical Oak.  She's had a really interesting 2017 with early success, some misfortune in the Jersey Girl, a well beaten but still running Victory Ride.  It's depressing her price and I dig that.  She's 4 wins in 10 starts and don't sleep on that speed.  
I'll take my chances not covering Chalon, but you can't cover them all.  She showed exceptional speed in the Jersey Girl so depending on her price I may include her.  Sorry to be less than definitive, I'm just not sure if I'm even building a horizontal bet on the race. 
I'm not sure what to make of Cursor. She's looked good in sprints and her price will be big.  Speed, and a lack of,  is the issue. 
I like the Divine Park filly Divine Miss Grey.  5 wins in 9 career starts.  Speed, and a lack of,  is the issue part deux. 
I think I'll cover the four and maybe assemble some prices into exacta and win bets as well.  
Have fun with it friends.  I'll be back to handicap the Whitney, the De La Rose and complete my Pick 3. 
Turk Out!

Free, Brad. (9 March 2017) Able Tasman in Callaghan to Baffert Trainer Switch.  Web. Daily Race Form.   Retrieved From

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