Welcome Friends To The Turk Blog, where we handicap turf races and place exacta bets.
Happy Memorial Day. We honor our war dead and those who gave the greatest sacrifice in the name of serving their country. This blog is written by a war veteran. My Dad, and my Grandfather, were both war veterans. I can only speak for myself, but war rhetoric has no place in modern American politics. A disproportionate amount of middle class and lower income men and women, whose parents are not politicians will die needlessly in the chess game of elites who have big mouths but lack guts. This blog is apolitical, but fiercely anti-war. Stop the rhetoric, Democrat and Republican, and defuse global tensions before its too late.
Today let's take a look at the Grade 1 Gamely at Santa Anita. I would have liked a slightly bigger field, but there is some real quality runners in this field. Let's get after it!
Royal Heroine G2; 1 April 2023 SA at 1 Mile on Fast Turf
The Wilshire G3; 30 April 2023 SA at 1 Mile on Fast Turf
Buena Vista Stakes G2; March 4 2023 SA at 1 Mile on Good Turf
RJ Frankel G3; 31 December 2022 SA 1 1/8 Miles on Good Turf
Allowance $99K; 21 April 2023 KEE 1 1/16 Miles Firm Turf
As I've said many times, I don't handicap with the Morning Lines. I don't look at the Morning Lines before I prepare my Fair Odds, and by then I have already handicapped. I was shocked to see 5-2 on Viareggio (Ire). I posted the Caravaggio (Scat Daddy) 4 YO last race, a $99K Allowance at Keeneland in Mid April. Solid late close. A really good ride by Gaffalione who isn't up today for Trainer Brendan Walsh. First time at Santa Anita. 4 of 12 in exacta on Turf, all wins. 1 Win in 1 start at distance. Seemed a bit rich at this point in her career.
Queen Goddess to me is the top choice. I'm choosing to look past her Jenny Wiley, which the Turk picked her third in and rightly so, as she was in deep like the rest of the field that day against a very sharp In Italian (GB). Cutting back, the 5 YO purchased for a whopping $1.5 MM and career earnings of $770,000 (sounds like my bankroll to winnings ratio!) is 7 of 10 in turf exactas, 3 of 3 in SA exactas, and last outing at SA a win on New Years Eve in the RJ Frankel.
I think any of Macadamia (Brz) (slight edge) or Viareggio (Ire) and Quattroelle (Ire) could hit the exacta. Macadamia ran April 30 at 1 Mile at SA in The Wilshire and ran exceptionally well. The 5 YO seems to have found a new level this year. Quattroelle beat Macadamia two back in the G2 Buena Vista, also 1 Mile at SA. 9 of 16 in Turf exactas, 7 of 11 in SA Turf exactas, 1 win in 4 tries at 1 Mile. Viareggio is a flyer, but I'm not a big fan of taking a flyer on an overhyped, over bet, 2nd time NA start horse.
If I'm looking for bigger value, Trainer Carla Gaines Closing Remarks: A win two back in the Royal Heroine at 1 Mile at SA in early April before faltering late as the chalk in The Wilshire. Same early and Late Timeform Pace Figs as Quattroelle. The 5 YO is off to a good 2023 but is 7 of 13 in the exacta at SA, 4 of 5 in the exacta at the distance and 9 of 17 in the exacta on turf.
School Dance isn't my choice to back in the exacta but not out of question for Tri or Exotics. I tossed Bellamore who does have a good late turn of foot.
$2 Bet, Queen Goddess/Macadamia OVER Closing Remarks and Quatroelle for $8 and my alternative is Closing Remarks OVER Quattroelle, Viareggio, Macadamia and Queeen Goddess , a $2 Bet for $8. I think I like my alternative better for value.
Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, where I generally handicap Turf Races and develop exacta bets. There was a time when I handicapped exclusively on the dirt, but times change, as do interests. I like big fields and horses with a lot of data. Today's Preakness offers neither, with the smallest field since the early 80's at seven, and the favorite, Kentucky Derby winner Mage, starting his fifth race.
I went to the Preakness Stakes just once, ten years ago. It was cold and rained. The Goo Goo Dolls, from Western New York just like The Turk, played in the infield. My mother and sister were in the same hotel as me without any pre planning. Trips to see graded stakes are some of the most relaxing vacations I've ever taken. I sit and contemplate the horses and time stands still. I don't believe in thinking about retirement before you actually retire, because as another famous Western New Yorker but Chicago native Marv Levy once said, once you start thinking about retirement, you're already retired, but that said, if I day dream a bit about it, I find my thoughts drifting to lazy days at the track. Last memory of Preakness 138? I stood in the valet line with Pitbull after the event. He was surrounded by women and dripped suave. La Vida Loca, DJ.
Mage is deserving of the top spot, especially with less pressure from First Mission who scratched on Black Eyed Susan Friday. At a seven horse field, this just isn't that fun a betting race unless chaos ensues. I think we can make a case or two for that.
I think National Treasure has a solid chance to win. Good Early speed and strong late speed, from the one post, with blinkers on (Baffert 17%), could take and hold the lead wire to wire. I have a soft spot for well bred Quality Road's.
Red Route One will be flying near the end but should be lagging out of the 5th post.
Blazing Sevens has been training very sharply for Chad Brown and also possess a strong late step.
Perform, from the six spot, is a Good Magic colt like Blazing Sevens, and has good tactical speed but overall slower than most. Don't expect the pace to favor a win but value in the place or Exotic spots possible.
As we are gambling, I'm going to put National Treasure and Red Route One in the win spot, with National Treasure, Mage, Red Route One, Blazing Sevens and Perform in Place; a $2 Bet of 1,5 OVER 1,3,5,6,7 for $16 bucks. If Mage wins I will perform a magic trick of making a big pile of dollars disappear. Covering Mage in the win spot adds $8 to the bet, for $24 investment. That doesn't work.
Welcome friends to The Turk Blog, focusing on turf racing and exact betting, and I am the Turk. For those of you that don't know me, I started handicapping at Saratoga in the summer of 1986 and started this blog in 2007. I like older runners over grass, as I find the data available on them, as well as their long careers as stakes runners, compelling. I'm not that wrapped up in Triple Crown euphoria, but I watched the Kentucky Derby for the first time since 2019 and handicapped it for the first time in many years, and do I love the handle and the big fields. Chaos pays. I did win the Trifecta on the Turf Classic and I won the Exacta on the Kentucky Derby, but I only netted about $46 dollars across both. I wasn't a very sharp bet constructor, but better than a sharp stick in the eye.
Today is more like the typical race I handicap, a Graded Stake older horse turf race, which I generally like between 1 1/8 miles and 1 1/4 miles in length to handicap. I'm not a marathon handicapper and I'm not a one turn sprinter handicapper either. Know thy self!
So what to do with this? Lets start with a piece of very relevant video, the Grade 2 Elkhorn from KEE on 22 April
I like how the four year old gelded Verstappen went eye to eye with the veteran Red Knight and found the will to pull ahead. Don't underestimate the competitive nature in video handicapping analysis. Everyone else in the Elkhorn that is going here did what you would expect, running style wise.
I wanted to find some video on Warren Point (GB), the 4 YO gelded son of Dubawi (Ire). This is over fake dirt from last October. Good staking trip and great late turn of foot.
I don't know if the Morning Line spread will hold, as I value Verstappen much more than the Belmont track handicapper did. I plan on putting Verstappen/4 and Warren Point (GB)/2 OVER 4-2-1-6-3, a $2 Bet for $16.
Have fun with it friends.
Turk Out
Welcome Back Friends to the Turk Blog. In my last post for Race 11, the Turf Classic, I prattled on about my love of the older horses running over grass, and my lack of enthusiasm for the 3 YO Kentucky Derby runners. Well, that's still true, but the gambler in me loves big handle and chaos, and with all the scratches including morning line and $2.0 MM winner, champion Forte, we have chaos. One thing I love about the Kentucky Derby is that one day a year it's like yesteryear, and everyone is a race fan and everyone has an opinion. My father, rest in peace, bet the grey horses because his sister, my dear Aunt Rose, loved the grey horses. It doesn't need to be anymore complicated than that. The good looking fella to the left is Rocket Can, but Hit Show, Tapit Trice, Reincarnate and King Russell are all Gr/Ro, so plenty to pick from.
From a handicapping perspective, I'm watching the undercard and speed seems to be carrying, but I'm favoring late speed to round out my potential exacta contenders. Let's get after it!
I won't elaborate too much on the why's to my ranking. I looked at recency/current form, class and effort, plus I do favor late pace figs over early. I could post 10 videos but really, have fun with this and look for value.
If I just boxed my top ten, a $1 bet is $90. Depending by the finish, the risk/reward can be justified with the field size and handle expected.
I will not box however, I will whittle down my potential winners and come up with something a bit more risky but even more reward-y.
Hong Kong Harry (Ire) Del Mar Thoroughbred Club/Benoit Photo
Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, a horse race handicapping and bet construction blog focused on turf racing and exacta betting. When I first started blogging, I felt compelled to get into the Kentucky Derby trail, the prep races and then the first Saturday in May. Some of the "too cool for school" bloggers that I was part of a blogging alliance with would poo-poo the Derby as beneath them. I've never understood how the biggest racing day in America can be beneath anyone writing about this game, but I do understand not caring that much about the 3 YOs. I don't. As a handicapper, their is only one group of horses I like to handicap and bet less, and that's 2 YOs. I like history, video, consistency. I have a soft spot for the veterans, the hard knocker's, the geldings, the survivors. It's my favorite part of horse racing, the unheralded turf runners, big fish in a small pond of public recognition. While I'm likely to tote board handicap the Kentucky Derby, especially with the chaos taking place with all the scratches, staying true to my brand, I'm blogging the race just before, the Turf Classic Grade 1. Life is short, do what you like not what is expected. Let's get after it!
The ten horse field was impacted by two scratches, Master Piece (Chi) and Steady On. Steady On would have pressed the early pace and Master Piece (Chi) had the best late speed. Don't fool yourself, the loss of these pace presser on the front and back end of this field will affect how it unfolds. What to do with it?
I'm putting Hong Kong Harry (Ire) and Up to the Mark in the win spots. 6 YO versus 4 YO. But will be rolling late. Hong Kong Harry has had a slow start to 2023, but Trainer D'Amato 25% off of the layoff. 3 of 3 in the money at the distance, 11 of 12 in the money over turf, but first trip over CD Turf.
Up to the Mark was bred for this distance but goes at 1 1/8 for first time. First time CD. 2 wins in 3 turf starts, 9th career start. Nice late run in the Maker's Mark Mile G1 at KEE 21 days ago. Good start to 2023 with two OC 62K wins at Gulfstream. I.Ortiz, up, 26% in 566 starts over past year. Rooting for Repole here. I honestly don't pay that much attention to owners, but he spoke to Fan Duel TV this AM as I was writing this blog and his genuine sadness for other people in his life and circle over the scratch of Forte in the Kentucky Derby made me a fan of the man's character.
Santin and Spooky Channel could easily win this race. Brendan Walsh's Pretty Mischievous win in the Kentucky Oaks must have the Godolphin trainer walking on sunshine. 5 YO Santin goes Synth to Turf here, which Walsh is only 14% doing. Bad start in last start. No bid in losing to Hong Kong Harry in the Seabiscuit Handicap 22 November 2022. 2 for 2 at CD, including this race last year and the faux Arlington Million. Speaking of that, today would have been the opening day at what I considered the best turf track in North America, Arlington Park. It was a wonderful track, I had a deep connection going back to it from 1985, and I'll never forgive this stupidly (un) managed sport, the corporate greed of CDI, and the moronic state government of Illinois. Moving on...
Seabiscuit H. G2: 1 1/16 Miles Firm Turf; Del Mar
Spooky Channel, the 8 YO, has been in great form in 2023 and should be rolling late as well also.
Muniz Memorial G2: 1 1/8 Miles Firm Turf at Fair Grounds, 25 March 2023.
29th start today, with 13 turf wins and 18 of 28 in the money over grass.
I think those are the serious win candidates, and quite frankly only Wolfie's Dynaghost should be considered with the other Win candidates for the Place spot. Wolfie's Dynaghost should go off at <10-1, also is a synth to turf runner with Trainer Thomas winning 25% of those. Should be the early speed coming out of 3 spot, most likely next to Ocean Atlantique who I'm discounting at my own peril.
I'm thinking I may single Up to the Mark for the best Value and play 3 or so under him. Something like 5 OVER 3,7,8,9 a $2 bet for $8.
