The Nomination Is In: The Turf Classic G1 at Churchill Downs

 

Hong Kong Harry (Ire) Del Mar Thoroughbred Club/Benoit Photo

Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, a horse race handicapping and bet construction blog focused on turf racing and exacta betting.  When I first started blogging, I felt compelled to get into the Kentucky Derby trail, the prep races and then the first Saturday in May. Some of the "too cool for school" bloggers that I was part of a blogging alliance with would poo-poo the Derby as beneath them.  I've never understood how the biggest racing day in America can be  beneath anyone writing about this game, but I do understand not caring that much about the 3 YOs.  I don't.  As a handicapper, their is only one group of horses I like to handicap and bet less, and that's 2 YOs.  I like history, video, consistency.  I have a soft spot for the veterans, the hard knocker's, the geldings, the survivors.  It's my favorite part of horse racing, the unheralded turf runners, big fish in a small pond of public recognition.  While I'm likely to tote board handicap the Kentucky Derby, especially with the chaos taking place with all the scratches, staying true to my brand, I'm blogging the race just before, the Turf Classic Grade 1.  Life is short, do what you like not what is expected. Let's get after it!

The ten horse field was impacted by two scratches, Master Piece (Chi) and Steady On.  Steady On would have pressed the early pace and Master Piece (Chi) had the best late speed.  Don't fool yourself, the loss of these pace presser on the front and back end of this field will affect how it unfolds. What to do with it? 

I'm putting Hong Kong Harry (Ire) and Up to the Mark in the win spots.  6 YO versus 4 YO.  But will be rolling late.  Hong Kong Harry has had a slow start to 2023, but Trainer D'Amato 25% off of the layoff.  3 of 3 in the money at the distance, 11 of 12 in the money over turf, but first trip over CD Turf.  

Up to the Mark was bred for this distance but goes at 1 1/8 for first time.  First time CD.  2 wins in 3 turf starts, 9th career start.  Nice late run in the Maker's Mark Mile G1 at KEE 21 days ago.  Good start to 2023 with two OC 62K wins at Gulfstream.  I.Ortiz, up, 26% in 566 starts over past year. Rooting for Repole here.  I honestly don't pay that much attention to owners, but he spoke to Fan Duel TV this AM as I was writing this blog and his genuine sadness for other people in his life and circle over the scratch of Forte in the Kentucky Derby made me a fan of the man's character.  

Santin and Spooky Channel could easily win this race. Brendan Walsh's Pretty Mischievous win in the Kentucky Oaks must have the  Godolphin trainer walking on sunshine.  5 YO Santin goes Synth to Turf here, which Walsh is only 14% doing.  Bad start in last start.  No bid in losing to Hong Kong Harry in the Seabiscuit Handicap 22 November 2022.  2 for 2 at CD, including this race last year and the faux Arlington Million.  Speaking of that, today would have been the opening day at what I considered the best turf track in North America, Arlington Park.  It was a wonderful track, I had a deep connection going back to it from 1985, and I'll never forgive this stupidly (un) managed sport, the corporate greed of CDI, and the moronic state government of Illinois.  Moving on...

Seabiscuit H. G2:  1 1/16 Miles Firm Turf; Del Mar

Spooky Channel, the 8 YO, has been in great form in 2023 and should be rolling late as well also.  

Muniz Memorial G2:  1 1/8 Miles Firm Turf at Fair Grounds, 25 March 2023.

29th start today, with 13 turf wins and 18 of 28 in the money over grass.  

I think those are the serious win candidates, and quite frankly only Wolfie's Dynaghost should be considered with the other Win candidates for the Place spot.  Wolfie's Dynaghost should go off at <10-1, also is a synth to turf runner with Trainer Thomas winning 25% of those.  Should be the early speed coming out of 3 spot, most likely next to Ocean Atlantique who I'm discounting at my own peril. 

I'm thinking I may single Up to the Mark for the best Value and play 3 or so under him.  Something like  5 OVER 3,7,8,9 a $2 bet for $8.  

Have fun friends, Turk Out!