Welcome Friends to the Turk Blog, where we specialize in turf handicapping and exacta bet construction. I was telling a co-Worker friend of mine this past week that I started using "The Turk" moniker because I was afraid that my employers would think I did not take my fiduciary responsibilities seriously if I was a gambler (and in my case gambler is lower case g.) How the times have changed in modern society, where just in my lifetime you couldn't get a corporate job with long hair, long beard and tattoos, or in my case, by being a degenerate gambler type. We use to judge many books by their cover and we had the social constructs of the era guide our biases. I don't know if it's better, or worse, but life is different in America, in everyday life, and horse racing is no different. It's days like Travers Day that remind me of horse racing in the mid 80's when I started to attend tracks. Perhaps fewer cosplay gamblers back then, but lively crowds nonetheless. I'm not the old guy railing about change, just observing.
If your a parent like I am, the end of August is nearing the unofficial end of summer, with the kids going back to school soon. While Little Turk is no longer the elementary school boy he was when we attended the 2007 Travers and he blindly picked Grasshopper who nearly upset the Kentucky Derby champ, Street Sense, I still think of Labor Day weekend next week as the unofficial ending of summer and I start to turn my attention towards Breeders' Cup. The circle of life in a horse players year.
I have to think I'm not the only one that walks into Saratoga and thinks about the ones no longer with us. I think about my Dad every time I'm there. My last visit with my father was Alabama Weekend in 2013, ten years ago. What I wouldn't give to have a time capsule, but being there is the closest thing to having one.
The Bowling Green G2: 1 3/8 Miles on Good Turf, SAR; 30 July 2023
Today's seven horse field lacks much front end speed, so Channel Maker's game plan will most likely mirror the Bowling Green. I don't see it happening with the extra distance and pressure from possibly Prat, up on Stone Age (Ire).
Where will pressure on Channel Maker come from?
Watch Pioneering Spirit open up in the stretch last time out OC62K 27 July at SAR. The horse has come a long way since a March gelding and a claim out of Pletcher's barn and into Rice's. 6 of 7 ITM in 2023. 4 Wins in 6 turf starts.
Bolshoi Ballet (Ire) has the class, the connections, but current form after running at Ascot 29 July I question. Feels more like step one of a Breeders' Cup prep plan from Conditioner O'Brien. 25 months since last win.
The beforementioned Stone Age (Ire) come back for Trainer Brown after running in Dubai in February. Prat and Brown have racked up 98 wins over rolling one year at SAR, 21%. Brown is 25% in 44 tries as 1st time Trainer and 30% in 191 starts on a +180 Day layoff. His gaudy 24%/889 Turf Start and 27% in 1158 Routes and 22% in Graded Stakes in 342 starts are hard to put in context with other trainers. I feel like the four year old is also starting a prep cycle for Breeders' Cup but I'd be inclined to back over Bolshoi Ballet.
Absolutely staggering morning line of 6-5 on Stone Age (Ire). He's the class of the race, but it is first time with Brown and it is first time in a long time. I've got no choice at that price to go after him and see what comes out of it.
I'm going to build an exacta, $1 Bet boxing the 5-3-1-7 Pioneering Spirit, Bolshoi Ballet and Soldier Rising and Stone Age for $12.
And inThe Travers:
The Jim DandyG2; 1 1/8milesover sloppy dirt at SAR 29 July.
The Belmont Stakes G1; 1 1/2 miles fast dirt 10 June 2023
The Haskell G1; 1 1/8 Miles on Fast Dirt at Monmouth; 22 July 2023
The Preakness Stakes G1; 1 3/16 Miles on Fast Dirt 20 May 2023
Matt Winn G3; 1 1/8 Miles Sloppy Dirt; EIP. 11 June 2023
The Curlin Stakes $130K; 1 1/8 Miles SAR 21 July 2023.
Similar to The Sword Dancer, Forte gets installed as a huge Morning Line favorite, and I'm going to go after him too even though his chalk is much darker than Stone Age's.
I've posted alot of video but to me this is less analysis and more tote board odd gambling. I'm going assume the track is not fast as the rains are expected to get heavier this afternoon. There are some big wet Tomlinson's in the field with exception of Mage and Scotland. I'm tossing both from my exacta pool. My value choice is Disarm. Adds Blinkers, training well, slop win and the best price.
$1 Exacta: 6-2-5-1 for $12. Alternatively, 6 Wheeled OVER 2-5-4-1 for $4.
Have fun friends, Turk Out.
I wish I could go back in time....Papa Turk, the Turk, Little Turk, one day together again.
Welcome friends to The Turk Blog, where I specialize in Turf Handicapping and Exacta Bet construction. Today's focus is on Woodbine's The King Edward Grade 2. How does the Turk pick which races he plans to handicap? I think one of my strengths as a handicapper is my experience handicapping all tracks, ages, surfaces, sexes, distances and class over decades, but also my refinement of my turf racing eye. You'll find me handicapping most weekends 8-10 furlong races with fields of at least 8. That's what makes the blogging interesting. I generally use the Bloodhorse Stakes Calendar to help me understand what's in the Conditions Book for the particular weekend and then I use the tracks website to look at entries before I shell out money for a DRF Formulator Past Performance card. I've used many PP's over the years but I enjoy Formulator and I believe in following a consistent approach to every handicap. I've gone horizontal more this summer than I have in some time. I like to anchor P4's to solid graded stakes on the turf.
So, that's it, no great mystery to the why's or the where's I handicap. I do have favorite tracks, and Kentucky Downs has really become a favorite track of mine over past several years. I just find it compelling, and for a grass junkie, it checks all the boxes.
Bloodhorse Stakes Calendar
Let's get after it!
I'm on a bit of a time crunch today so I'm just going to jump right to it: I see Treason, War Bomber and Shirl's Speight as the class of the field with primarily the best late turns of foot and class.
While I don't think he's the best, this is gambling: I'm going to wheel War Bomber OVER Treason, Shirl's Speight, Pao Alto and Lucky Score, a $2 Exacta for $8. Nothing complicated. I liked War Bomber leaving The Connaught Cup at 7f a month ago, and with a better trip and more grass I like him even better.
Treason cuts back 1 panel from his Place effort in early July on Canada Day in the Dominion Day G3. Watch War Bomber get dusted, now two efforts back from today.
Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, with over 700 Blog Posts over the past 16 race seasons. My primary focus is turf handicapping and exacta betting.
The Turk's connection to Arlington was deep. I've told the story many times, but I was stationed at Great Lakes Naval Training Center the night of the fire on 31 July 1985. I was volun-ordered to get on a truck and about 15 of us were there helping with traffic and running supplies. Flash forward and Arlington became a love of mine, with its lush turf and international turf festival. It was my first race track vacation and it became an annual trip with my teen aged son to see the Million. I also wrote many articles about the state of Illinois Racing, and how the corrupt and incompetent State government was killing the sport with their policies. I don't blame the Bears, but CDI is not innocent: They could have persevered, conducted more lobbying efforts, brought some races to the track, helped with purses, but no, they took the easy cash and again showed distain for the 'more than casual' fan.
I don't believe in organized boycotts, although I think they can be effective, but who's really being hurt? Blue collar employees, while the boss man sips champagne. I considered never playing a race called "Arlington Million", but who does that hurt? No one but me. I can hate what happened to my beloved Arlington, I can mourn what I lost as a fan and a human, but I'm a turf racing handicapper and I remind myself the horses don't know or care about any of these first world problems. They were bred to run and entertain us, give us pleasure. It's symbiotic: How many thoroughbreds would be born without racing? A tiny fraction of the 17,300-ish born now. According to Jockey Club, that's already a 50% reduction from the 34,000 born in 2001. That's startling when first read until you think about the shrinking of the sport, the industry, the field sizes. How many Secretariat's or Zenyatta's were not born over the past 22 years? Don't think about it.
That is an angle to consider when you think about the Europeans. There was a time when most of the Euro's on a turf festival day had to be respected. As hard as it was to evaluate them on an apples to apples basis, you could see the quality of the connections, read the running lines, and just know you had to include them or exclude them on not always ideal data. Now, while anecdotal, I'm seeing fields get fleshed out with so-so Euro's, and the best not coming until Breeders' Cup final prep time.
I'd be remiss to not talk about Maple Leaf Mel today. I've seen breakdowns before, but I'm not sure I've ever seen one as horrific or shocking as hers last week. When I walked into Saratoga last Saturday I walked past the protesters who would be happy to see horse racing banned, not caring that Maple Leaf Mel would never even have been born if it were not for racing. We would have been denied the incredible stretch run the undefeated Maple Leaf Mel made as she was about to become a Grade 1 winner in The Test, we would have been denied the outpouring of love and support to the connections, starting with her Trainer, Mel Giddings and Football Hall of Fame owner Bill Parcells. The NY Bred raced into imaginations and now into nightmares. I'm glad Maple Leaf Mel was born, and I'm glad she ran, and I'm glad when she needed humans the most, in pain and shock, that she was given humane treatment, and I'm glad to get my regular reminder that this sport is about the horses and people that work with these horses. Rest in Peace Maple Leaf Mel.
It's a deep field, even if class and quality is just a cut below the best editions of this race. Notably missing are high end European's that were a staple of Arlington Park editions of this race. Let's not cry any further for what was lost, lets focus on who is here.
Catnip and Adhamo (Ire) have my top spots.
Catnip is five of 8 Turf Exactas and 4 of 4 in the exacta in 2023. Adding an 1/8 of a mile to the classic distance which he tries for the first time. It's a tough spot for a lightly run 4 YO, but I'm intrigued and the price should be right.
Catnip as a beaten Favorite on Haskell Day, the 1 3/8ths United Nations G1
Adhamo (IRE) goes for the first time since October 2022. Chad Brown wins off of a +180 Day Layoff 29% of the time. 4 of 6 at the distance in the money, 7 of 16 on Turf in the exacta, the 5 YO has been training very sharply since early July in Saratoga.
Those chalks of mine were as light as chalk get. My next group of 4, and my top six in general, has little to differentiate them. This next group are Turk favorites, the grizzled veterans.
Set Piece (GB) has to me the best late speed of the field. Adding distance and running back as the beaten favorite over good turf at EIP on Stephen Foster Day. At the back of a 10 horse field, forced to go six wide in the final turn, gaining at the end, just not able to get the trip Geroux, up, may have preferred. Have to respect.
Master Piece (Chi), now 7 YO, trained by Dutrow, comes back after a yielding Turf 1 1/16 mile OC$80K on 4 July. 1 win in last 8 starts. 10 of 22 in exactas over grass. Solid late speed. Running well to Place finish, no excuses. Lezcano up today.
Chad Brown's Rockemperor comes in off of a dog of a classic distance Manhattan on Belmont Day. In what could be a duplicate pace scenario today, you'll see Strong Quality lead most of the race with it's good early speed, only to sink like a stone at the end. Both Strong Quality and Rockemperor aren't in the frame when Up to the Mark blew the doors off this one. I'm hard pressed to see this effort and think anything other than minor prize material.
Never Explain, the $475,000 KEE sale son of Street Sense is at $302,000 of career winnings and a line of 17: 5W 2P 3S. 7 of 16 exactas over turf, no classic distance efforts, and cutting back 1/8 of a mile from the good turf Bowling Green at SAR on 30 July. The ageless Channel Maker had easy fractions and plenty of stamina to seal this one off.
What am I doing with this? A 8-9-3-6-2 Boxed Exacta for $1 dollar will cost $20. I'm including my top six with exception of Rockemperor, at my own peril. I'm tempted to Catnip in the top spot and wheel him in my exacta with the other 4 below, a much cheaper bet, but I think the odds will be favorable and the will pay in many of these combinations able to cover the bet and give me a return. That's the thought but I may adjust as we go.
Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog. I'd like to thank the good people of The Thorofan for allowing me to share my thoughts on this race with you today. The Turk is in the Spa! Yes, for the first time since before COVID, I'm returning to Saratoga. I lived in Saratoga in 1986 while I was training to operate Nuclear Reactors for the US Navy. It was the 1986 meet where this casual horse racing fan from my childhood became a closet race fan before embracing my red ink pen and nerdy handicapper persona after leaving the Navy. Ironically I was stationed onboard the USS Louisville, SSN-24, Best of the Breed. Louisville, with myself onboard, fired some of the first missiles on the opening night of Operation Desert Storm. I digress, but it is funny the coincidences of life.
The 1986 Whitney was won by Lady's Secret, the first filly since the 40's to win. Some of my favorite horses since I became a full fledged fan of the game in the late 80's have won this race: Commentator in 2005 and 2008, Lawyer Ron in 2007, Tizway in 201, but 2010's Blame has me thinking about the Breeders' Cup Classic and an unbeatable Zenyatta, America's favorite, beloved. Cody's Wish is on a Zenyatta like roll right now with the American public, I can't help but think could he be meeting his Blame today? I was there watching in disbelief that Zenyatta, bad start and all, did not catch Blame that cold night in Churchill Downs. Does this happen to me again? Life is funny with the parallels and coincidences.
I know as a gambler, that will be my intention, to bet against him. I hope he proves me wrong, but this is a horse race investment and I'm thinking about high risk-high reward. Let's get it on!
I'm expecting Fast Dirt. The Weather is inclement for a few hours Friday but Saturday looks good. It's a small field, six horses, so watch for scratches and changes here.
Just a few relevant videos with The Met Mile the most relevant.
8 July 2023: BEL; Suburban G2; 1 1/4 Mile Fast Dirt
10 June 2023: BEL; Met Mile G1; 1 Mile Fast Dirt
8 July 2023; PrM; Cornhusker Handicap G3; 1 1/8 Miles Fast Dirt
1 July 2023; EIP; Stephen Foster G1; 1 1/8 Miles Fast Dirt
Whitney G1; 1 1/8 Miles
Let's take a closer look at my handicapping analysis.
There are 4 wins in 25 lifetime starts at this distance!
It's been a very long time since I had a horse in my fair line at 50% odds to win. Cody's Wish morning line is something like 1-2 and I have to think this horse will be the post time favorite. Even at 66% win odds, there is still a 33% chance he loses. As a gambler, with this type of underlay, and I think it's fair to call any horse at 1-2 an underlay going a distance they have never won at, and I want to take a swing at beating him.
How I assemble my exacta? Sitting here in Western New York on Thursday Night I'm contemplating wheeling Charge It OVER White Abarrio, Zandon and Cody's Wish, a $2 bet for $6. For real value, I think I should go Charge It OVER the field, a $2 Bet for $10 and hope beyond hope that Giant Game or Last Samurai Place. I'm not emotional about Charge It and quote frankly, I could swap Charge It for White Abarrio who I think is improving. This is gambling, not an exercise in picking the best horses. Always remember that and always try to exploit these feel good moments when betting dollars surge towards a fan favorite. Yes, 7 out of 10 races, Cody's Wish walks away with this, but I just need Saturday to be one of the 3 of 10.
Have fun friends. Turk will be in the Clubhouse Section K with a bunch of rowdy degenerate gamblers, I hope to see some of you there.
