Post Race Analysis: The Canadian Stakes G2 at Woodbine

 

Ready for Shirl at the wire

Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, where I handicap turf racing, primarily older horses, and assemble exacta bets. Nothing that exotic, no complex systems, just my hyper attention on just one race, away from the distractions that occur at the track between the time one race ends and another goes to post. That's an important point, as this level of analysis isn't possible at the track nor do I pretend that it is.  I follow a very different process when I'm at the track for pleasure or if I am handicapping a whole card for serious gambling purposes.  For pleasure, I handicap off the simplified DRF past performance, and assemble simple bets off the tote board, tossing the favorite or skipping the race.  With a whole card, I'll start with video review and I'll build my contenders listing and use it to assemble bets.  

For these one off races, I deep dive on both video but also race charts. I like data, something that 3 YOs often lack.  Give me enough data and I'll build a very good handicap.   That said, it does nothing for bet construction.  Bet construction is to me about patterns and risk.  Understanding the patterns that appear over and over again with these races, be it a pace pattern, a field size pattern, how much handle the day may generate and then, the fair odds for over and underlays, and finally the most important data point, what does the betting public think of the horses as demonstrated on tote board and the Will Pays.  

When I see Gimme a Nother (SAf) being bet down that hard, I salivate. My handicapping skill tells me what I need to know about the field, and my bet construction skill tells me how to possibly exploit it.  

What do I mean?  Gimme a Nother (SAf) is a multiple grade 1 winner in South Africa.  I have no idea how that translates, but I definitely discount that.  Pre race I said "...Gimme a Nother (SAf), first time lasix, multiple G1 winner in South Africa, a place in G2 Hillsborough in Tampa, place in G3 Modesty at Churchill, well back of She Feels Pretty over yielding turf at SAR in the G1 New York.  45.5%, 6-5 Morning Line?  That has to be in metric or something.  A very good mare but will she win this G2 5 out of 10 times?"  

Watch Gimme a Nother (SAf) coming up the 2+ furlong straight and that stride didn't deserve 1-1 betting action.  

No bragging, this sport humbles the best.  I'm a very experienced handicapper.  That's my strength.  I'm a so-so bet construction gambler. I'd rather it was the other way around, but I have to leverage my strength and then I need to resist the urge to over bet.  I'd rather lose 6 out of 10 but make a larger net return on the 4 I hit.  That should be all of our objectives.

Have Fun Friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Canadian Stakes G2 at Woodbine

 

Starting in the chute, 2.2 Furlongs after the turn to the line

Welcome Friends To the Turk Blog, where I focus on turf racing and exacta betting.  It's been some time since I've handicapped Woodbine.  No particular reason for avoiding this track, it's actually not that far from my house (about 45 miles and one international bridge crossing away) and The Turk has enjoyed many an afternoon in the facility, with Woodbine Mile Day on my list of annual fun.  

It's a big track, a 1 mile dirt oval and an absolutely enormous turf route.  Today is Connaught Cup G2 day, which is Race 7, but I'm going to look at the race just before it for the blog, the G2 Canadian Stakes for Fillies and Mares 3 YO and Up.  

It's a small field with a HUGE morning line favorite.  I like to be contrarian in my betting but not in my handicapping.  Gimme a Nother (SAf), first time lasix, multiple G1 winner in South Africa, a place in G2 Hillsborough in Tampa, place in G3 Modesty at Churchill, well back of She Feels Pretty over yielding turf at SAR in the G1 New York.  45.5%, 6-5 Morning Line?  That has to be in metric or something.  A very good mare but will she win this G2 5 out of 10 times?

Let's get after it!

The Canadian Stakes G2:  1 1/8 Miles (1 turn) on Turf.

Let's take a look at that New York G1 race and see how she moves.

6 June 2025 SAR: The New York G1; 1 3/16ths on Yielding Turf

8 March 2025 TAM: The Hillsborough G2;  1 1/8 Miles on Firm Turf

What a difference in those two races.  She moved really well in a field that will be more like today's field than one with She Feels Pretty in it.  Carrying top weight at 124.  

28 June 2025 WO: The Nassau G2; 1 Mile on good Turf.

By all looks, Gimme Me Nother (SAf) should win this race, but let's think contrarian and make a low risk, high reward bet:

4-3 Over 2-3-4, a $2 Exacta for $8.  I will place a $2 Rolling Double on 4 in Race 6 and 3-8 Race 7.  

Not a lot of deep thought here, just looking to knock off that huge favorite.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The United Nations G2 at Monmouth Park

2024 United Nations at the wire: Get Smokin. 

                                                                                                                               Welcome friends to The Turk blog, where I handicap turf racing and build exacta bets.  I've been handicapping for 39 years and I've been a fan of the ponies since Seattle Slew when I was 11 years old.

If you are new to my blog, welcome.  I've never made much of an effort to distribute this blog widely, but I have created a new Facebook Page and a X/Twitter Account, so if you found me there, I am grateful.  

Today is one of the marquee days in horse racing, Haskell Day at Monmouth Park.  The United Nations G2 just before the Haskell is today's turf racing mystery to solve.

Let's get after it!

Just a reference point

20 July 2024 Mth;  The United Nations G2: 1 3/8 Miles Firm Turf

19 April 2025 Kee; The Elkhorn G2: 1 1/2 Miles Firm Turf

 

14 June 2025 Mth; The Monmouth Stakes $150K; 1 1/8 miles on good Turf

 

14 June 2025 DEL; The Cape Henlopen Stakes $200K; 1 1/2 Miles Firm Turf

 

 The United Nations G2: 1 3/8 Miles on Turf

Interesting field with no heavy chalk but clearly a line between Graded Stakes class and Allowance/Minor stakes. The potential for a freaky finish and a higher payout is what attracts me to these sort of fields and races, although I find it some of the hardest handicapping I do.  

Redistricting (GB) and Limited Liability seem like the cream of the crop. 

Redistricting (GB) is a 5 YO, lightly raced making 10th career start, 5 of 9 in the exacta.  Last win was here at Monmouth in the Monmouth Stakes, winning as the heavy chalk.  Stepping up bigly in class, but a close Place in the G2 Seabiscuit Handicap in November 2024 gives me promise.  Prat/Chad Brown are 26% together over past year in 291 starts.  

Limited Liability comes in off a layoff since b19 April at KEE Elkhorn G2, a beaten head.  0 of 3 at this distance, 8 of 20 exacta finishes over turf.  On a run of six straight in the money finishes.  

Rebel Red (GB) and Grand Sonata are in my next layer of quality. 

Rebel Red  (GB) is a 5 YO son of Frankel (GB) with huge closing speed, the best late Timeform US Pace of the field.  Winner last time out in $170K stake at Churchill Downs, setting a career best 100 Beyer at 1 3/8ths, today's distance. A race best Tomlinson at the distance and the 3rd best Tomlinson over grass.  

Grand Sonata was a beaten nose at this race in 2024 to Get Smokin, the 10 horse.  Also a solid closer.  Walked off after Belmont Gold Cup in June, the 6 YO wanted nothing to do with the dirt slop when race moved off grass.  G2 Kentucky Downs Turf Cup winner in 2024 and a beaten head at Gulfstream Park in a G2 in March.  

Major Dude, Tawny Port and Get Smokin are where I cut off the contenders for the Exacta.  

Trainer Todd Pletcher's Major Dude is a 5YO making 20th Turf Start.  9 of 19 in the exacta over grass, first time at this distance and first time at Monmouth.  Last time out was at 1 Mile.  Hasn't gone past 9f in 5 races, the Pegasus Turf G1 where he was in a position to close but didn't.  

Tawny Port also wanted nothing to do with the slop in the Belmont Gold Cup and eased to be 81 lengths back (I'd called that eased).  Two Show finishes in two tries at Monmouth, but both gutty efforts.  Miguel Clement saddles him, the Turk still isn't ready to memorialize his favorite trainer, Christophe Clement, but rest in peace.  No wins in four tries at this distance.  1 win in 12 turf starts.  

8 YO Get Smokin must be respected  for his game win here last year.  

Starting Over and Vote No could have been considered, but I don't see it, although the 4 YO Vote No has 3 wins in 6 turf stars , closes well and is a last race winner.  

I think I'd be foolish to not cover Redistricting and Limited Liability in the top two spots.  Rebel Red and Grand Sonata,  Vote No and Tawny Port are my contenders.  

Rebel Red OVER Redistricting, Limited Liability, Grand Sonata, and Tawny Port, a $2 Exacta for $8.  

A dart throw really.  I think Rebel Red will be no better than 3rd on the Tote Board and I'm looking for value.  

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

7 OVER 3-4-2

Post Race Analysis: The Diana at Saratoga

 

At the Wire in The Diana

Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog.  

The Diana represented an opportunity to remember a cardinal rule in horse racing: look for the underlays and overlays and exploit the inefficiency in the tote board odds.  With Morning Line odds of 1-1 (50%), a Turk Fair Line of 2-1 or 33%,  and an absolutely ridiculous  post time tote board odds of 3-5 (62.5%), She Feels Pretty was an overlay.  The overlay was there, I just wished a bigger field challenged her, as with one scratch only four other horses went to the gate, and there just wasn't a deep closer talented enough to bump She Feels Pretty from the Show spot, where the real exacta value would have been.  Credit where credit is due, Excellent Truth brought it but was the second best odds on the board which gave us a $2 Exacta Payout of only $17.  

Horse race handicapping is all about identifying who should win.  Bet Construction is about creating value.  She Feels Pretty is one hell of a horse, arguably the second best horse Lael Stables has ever fielded behind the mighty Barbaro.  Multiple Grade 1 winner, success at Saratoga.  I wasn't betting against the horse, I was looking for value, looking for an underlay, and reacting to unreasonable odds placed on the Mare by the betting public.  This was sort of a gross example but you get the idea, avoid the hoopla, look for chaos.  

Have Fun Friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Diana G1 at Saratoga

 

She Feels Pretty/Photo Credit: Courtney Snow/Past the Wire

Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, where I focus on Turf Racing and Exacta Betting. 

$5.50 for a DRF Formulator Card at Saratoga, a price increase from DRF over the past year, after to be fair, the price was held constant for a very many years.  Still, for the monopolies that hold a tight reign over the information in this sport, it does seem excessive.  I say all that because it's hard to make a return on investment capital plus the high cost of information when you get a six horse Diana where the morning line favorite is 1-1, 50% of the odds.  That is, unless we can make a case for her to finish in Place, or worse.  That favorite is She Feels Pretty: 10-10 lifetime in the money, 2 starts at SAR, both in the money, the last on yielding turf at 1 3/16th was a career best 100 Beyer.  2 of 2 at the distance.  Lot's to like but 50%, this is less of a handicapping exercise and more of a betting opportunity.

Let's get after it.

The Diana G1: 1 1/8 Miles on Inner Turf for F&M 4 YO and Up

Most of the other runners competed in either the Gamely G1, Just a Game G1 or Jenny Wiley G1.  Let's take a peak.

12 April 2025 KEE: The Jenny Wiley G1:  1 1/16 Miles on Good Turf.  

 

6 June 2025 SAR: Just a Game G1: 1 Mile on yielding turf.  

26 May 2025 SA:  The Gamely G1: 1 1/8 Miles on Firm Turf

Finally, She Feels Pretty.

6 June 2025 SAR: The New York G1: 1 3/16ths on yielding turf.

A different horse from a  different time, but Lael Stables silks with a #8 Saddle Cloth always makes me think of this guy, the horse that made me start blogging, Barbaro.  Hard to believe next year will be 20 years!

Barbero: Photo Eliot Schechter/epa/corbis

  So what are we going to do with all this?  As I said, we have to bet against the heavy favorite. Horse racing code compels me, and even at a more realistic 2-1, 33% odds, there is still a 6 in 10 chance she loses.  

I like late closers Dynamic Pricing (Ire) or Lady Claypoole (Ire) to get her late.  The scratch of Be Your Best (Ire) however changes the race pace dynamics greatly, as his early pressure will be missing and I think that leaves Choisya (GB) and Excellent Truth (Ire) to press She Feels Pretty early.  Choisya's last outing at SAR was a disaster on yielding turf.  You can find Track Condition and Scratches and Changes Here.  Current inner turf condition is yielding and its raining.  

3-4-5 OVER 1-3-4-5, a $2 Exacta for $18 seems a bit pricy.  3-4-5 Boxed is $12.  I'll be thinking down these lines later today.

Have fun friends, Turk Out! 

The Nomination Is In: The Kelso, G3 at Saratoga

 

Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, where I specialize in Turf Racing and Exacta Betting.  

I've been handicapping since the mid 1980's and I've posted over 725 blog entries here since 2008.  What I am not is a horse racing insider or someone who even remotely gets caught up in the news or the personalities.  I don't want racing coverage with the sound up (except the race calls) and I don't read about the races in advance.  I handicap off of what I see on DRF Formulator PPs (not sponsored!) and from Youtube race videos. These days I'm much more likely to be making theoretical bet, as I seldom gamble anymore. I don't do this for monetization, and quite frankly, I'm not doing it for views, as very few people actually read long form blogs anymore in the horse racing space. Take it for what it's worth, but when I'm handicapping consistently I have a positive ROI.

Work takes up a lot of my time. When I retire, my plan is to take the blog in new directions, data scrapping from API feeds to improve my analysis and product.  For now, I blog to stay fresh, as handicapping is a muscle that needs exercise.  

I generally like to handicap 4 YO and Up going greater than 1 mile.  Beggars can't be choosers these days, with fewer tracks and less races.  I wasn't even sure why Saratoga was running this weekend and I understand they have a 4 July Holiday mini-meet before the main meet opens late next week.  Fine with me, it fills a gap where I would have been handicapping Arlington in the past, or even Belmont.  

I settled on the G3 Kelso for my effort this week.  The weather should be good and the turf firm.  You'll find track conditions and Scratches and Changes here.  My handicap is only for turf and if it moves to main track, while unlikely, ignore this post.  

I didn't have a lot of video I wanted to look at.  I'm frustrated with finding Churchill Downs video again. 

Hall of Fame G2, SAR, 1 Mile Firm Inner Turf.   2 August 2024.  Neat.

Poker G3, SAR 1 Mile Firm Inner Turf.  5 June 2025.  Intellect (FR), Donegal Momentum

5 July 2025:  The Kelso G3;  1 Mile on Inner Turf at SAR for 4 YO and Up

I'm leaning towards 2-8 OVER 1-2-4-5-6-8, a $2 Bet for $20.  Feels like I'm going to do a possible magic trick of turning $20 into $0 dollars, but we'll see.  I always reserve the right to adjust based on the tote board, which I think every horse player should reassess, as this is about informed risk and value more than being "right".

Have fun friends, Turk Out!