The Nomination Is In: The Diana G1 at Saratoga

 

She Feels Pretty/Photo Credit: Courtney Snow/Past the Wire

Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, where I focus on Turf Racing and Exacta Betting. 

$5.50 for a DRF Formulator Card at Saratoga, a price increase from DRF over the past year, after to be fair, the price was held constant for a very many years.  Still, for the monopolies that hold a tight reign over the information in this sport, it does seem excessive.  I say all that because it's hard to make a return on investment capital plus the high cost of information when you get a six horse Diana where the morning line favorite is 1-1, 50% of the odds.  That is, unless we can make a case for her to finish in Place, or worse.  That favorite is She Feels Pretty: 10-10 lifetime in the money, 2 starts at SAR, both in the money, the last on yielding turf at 1 3/16th was a career best 100 Beyer.  2 of 2 at the distance.  Lot's to like but 50%, this is less of a handicapping exercise and more of a betting opportunity.

Let's get after it.

The Diana G1: 1 1/8 Miles on Inner Turf for F&M 4 YO and Up

Most of the other runners competed in either the Gamely G1, Just a Game G1 or Jenny Wiley G1.  Let's take a peak.

12 April 2025 KEE: The Jenny Wiley G1:  1 1/16 Miles on Good Turf.  

 

6 June 2025 SAR: Just a Game G1: 1 Mile on yielding turf.  

26 May 2025 SA:  The Gamely G1: 1 1/8 Miles on Firm Turf

Finally, She Feels Pretty.

6 June 2025 SAR: The New York G1: 1 3/16ths on yielding turf.

A different horse from a  different time, but Lael Stables silks with a #8 Saddle Cloth always makes me think of this guy, the horse that made me start blogging, Barbaro.  Hard to believe next year will be 20 years!

Barbero: Photo Eliot Schechter/epa/corbis

  So what are we going to do with all this?  As I said, we have to bet against the heavy favorite. Horse racing code compels me, and even at a more realistic 2-1, 33% odds, there is still a 6 in 10 chance she loses.  

I like late closers Dynamic Pricing (Ire) or Lady Claypoole (Ire) to get her late.  The scratch of Be Your Best (Ire) however changes the race pace dynamics greatly, as his early pressure will be missing and I think that leaves Choisya (GB) and Excellent Truth (Ire) to press She Feels Pretty early.  Choisya's last outing at SAR was a disaster on yielding turf.  You can find Track Condition and Scratches and Changes Here.  Current inner turf condition is yielding and its raining.  

3-4-5 OVER 1-3-4-5, a $2 Exacta for $18 seems a bit pricy.  3-4-5 Boxed is $12.  I'll be thinking down these lines later today.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!