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| At the Wire in The Diana |
Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog.
The Diana represented an opportunity to remember a cardinal rule in horse racing: look for the underlays and overlays and exploit the inefficiency in the tote board odds. With Morning Line odds of 1-1 (50%), a Turk Fair Line of 2-1 or 33%, and an absolutely ridiculous post time tote board odds of 3-5 (62.5%), She Feels Pretty was an overlay. The overlay was there, I just wished a bigger field challenged her, as with one scratch only four other horses went to the gate, and there just wasn't a deep closer talented enough to bump She Feels Pretty from the Show spot, where the real exacta value would have been. Credit where credit is due, Excellent Truth brought it but was the second best odds on the board which gave us a $2 Exacta Payout of only $17.
Horse race handicapping is all about identifying who should win. Bet Construction is about creating value. She Feels Pretty is one hell of a horse, arguably the second best horse Lael Stables has ever fielded behind the mighty Barbaro. Multiple Grade 1 winner, success at Saratoga. I wasn't betting against the horse, I was looking for value, looking for an underlay, and reacting to unreasonable odds placed on the Mare by the betting public. This was sort of a gross example but you get the idea, avoid the hoopla, look for chaos.
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