Post Race Analysis: The Canadian Stakes G2 at Woodbine

 

Ready for Shirl at the wire

Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, where I handicap turf racing, primarily older horses, and assemble exacta bets. Nothing that exotic, no complex systems, just my hyper attention on just one race, away from the distractions that occur at the track between the time one race ends and another goes to post. That's an important point, as this level of analysis isn't possible at the track nor do I pretend that it is.  I follow a very different process when I'm at the track for pleasure or if I am handicapping a whole card for serious gambling purposes.  For pleasure, I handicap off the simplified DRF past performance, and assemble simple bets off the tote board, tossing the favorite or skipping the race.  With a whole card, I'll start with video review and I'll build my contenders listing and use it to assemble bets.  

For these one off races, I deep dive on both video but also race charts. I like data, something that 3 YOs often lack.  Give me enough data and I'll build a very good handicap.   That said, it does nothing for bet construction.  Bet construction is to me about patterns and risk.  Understanding the patterns that appear over and over again with these races, be it a pace pattern, a field size pattern, how much handle the day may generate and then, the fair odds for over and underlays, and finally the most important data point, what does the betting public think of the horses as demonstrated on tote board and the Will Pays.  

When I see Gimme a Nother (SAf) being bet down that hard, I salivate. My handicapping skill tells me what I need to know about the field, and my bet construction skill tells me how to possibly exploit it.  

What do I mean?  Gimme a Nother (SAf) is a multiple grade 1 winner in South Africa.  I have no idea how that translates, but I definitely discount that.  Pre race I said "...Gimme a Nother (SAf), first time lasix, multiple G1 winner in South Africa, a place in G2 Hillsborough in Tampa, place in G3 Modesty at Churchill, well back of She Feels Pretty over yielding turf at SAR in the G1 New York.  45.5%, 6-5 Morning Line?  That has to be in metric or something.  A very good mare but will she win this G2 5 out of 10 times?"  

Watch Gimme a Nother (SAf) coming up the 2+ furlong straight and that stride didn't deserve 1-1 betting action.  

No bragging, this sport humbles the best.  I'm a very experienced handicapper.  That's my strength.  I'm a so-so bet construction gambler. I'd rather it was the other way around, but I have to leverage my strength and then I need to resist the urge to over bet.  I'd rather lose 6 out of 10 but make a larger net return on the 4 I hit.  That should be all of our objectives.

Have Fun Friends, Turk Out!