The Nomination Is In: The Canadian Stakes G2 at Woodbine

 

Starting in the chute, 2.2 Furlongs after the turn to the line

Welcome Friends To the Turk Blog, where I focus on turf racing and exacta betting.  It's been some time since I've handicapped Woodbine.  No particular reason for avoiding this track, it's actually not that far from my house (about 45 miles and one international bridge crossing away) and The Turk has enjoyed many an afternoon in the facility, with Woodbine Mile Day on my list of annual fun.  

It's a big track, a 1 mile dirt oval and an absolutely enormous turf route.  Today is Connaught Cup G2 day, which is Race 7, but I'm going to look at the race just before it for the blog, the G2 Canadian Stakes for Fillies and Mares 3 YO and Up.  

It's a small field with a HUGE morning line favorite.  I like to be contrarian in my betting but not in my handicapping.  Gimme a Nother (SAf), first time lasix, multiple G1 winner in South Africa, a place in G2 Hillsborough in Tampa, place in G3 Modesty at Churchill, well back of She Feels Pretty over yielding turf at SAR in the G1 New York.  45.5%, 6-5 Morning Line?  That has to be in metric or something.  A very good mare but will she win this G2 5 out of 10 times?

Let's get after it!

The Canadian Stakes G2:  1 1/8 Miles (1 turn) on Turf.

Let's take a look at that New York G1 race and see how she moves.

6 June 2025 SAR: The New York G1; 1 3/16ths on Yielding Turf

8 March 2025 TAM: The Hillsborough G2;  1 1/8 Miles on Firm Turf

What a difference in those two races.  She moved really well in a field that will be more like today's field than one with She Feels Pretty in it.  Carrying top weight at 124.  

28 June 2025 WO: The Nassau G2; 1 Mile on good Turf.

By all looks, Gimme Me Nother (SAf) should win this race, but let's think contrarian and make a low risk, high reward bet:

4-3 Over 2-3-4, a $2 Exacta for $8.  I will place a $2 Rolling Double on 4 in Race 6 and 3-8 Race 7.  

Not a lot of deep thought here, just looking to knock off that huge favorite.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!