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| 2024 United Nations at the wire: Get Smokin. |
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Today is one of the marquee days in horse racing, Haskell Day at Monmouth Park. The United Nations G2 just before the Haskell is today's turf racing mystery to solve.
Let's get after it!
Just a reference point
20 July 2024 Mth; The United Nations G2: 1 3/8 Miles Firm Turf
19 April 2025 Kee; The Elkhorn G2: 1 1/2 Miles Firm Turf
14 June 2025 Mth; The Monmouth Stakes $150K; 1 1/8 miles on good Turf
14 June 2025 DEL; The Cape Henlopen Stakes $200K; 1 1/2 Miles Firm Turf
The United Nations G2: 1 3/8 Miles on Turf
Interesting field with no heavy chalk but clearly a line between Graded Stakes class and Allowance/Minor stakes. The potential for a freaky finish and a higher payout is what attracts me to these sort of fields and races, although I find it some of the hardest handicapping I do.
Redistricting (GB) and Limited Liability seem like the cream of the crop.
Redistricting (GB) is a 5 YO, lightly raced making 10th career start, 5 of 9 in the exacta. Last win was here at Monmouth in the Monmouth Stakes, winning as the heavy chalk. Stepping up bigly in class, but a close Place in the G2 Seabiscuit Handicap in November 2024 gives me promise. Prat/Chad Brown are 26% together over past year in 291 starts.
Limited Liability comes in off a layoff since b19 April at KEE Elkhorn G2, a beaten head. 0 of 3 at this distance, 8 of 20 exacta finishes over turf. On a run of six straight in the money finishes.
Rebel Red (GB) and Grand Sonata are in my next layer of quality.
Rebel Red (GB) is a 5 YO son of Frankel (GB) with huge closing speed, the best late Timeform US Pace of the field. Winner last time out in $170K stake at Churchill Downs, setting a career best 100 Beyer at 1 3/8ths, today's distance. A race best Tomlinson at the distance and the 3rd best Tomlinson over grass.
Grand Sonata was a beaten nose at this race in 2024 to Get Smokin, the 10 horse. Also a solid closer. Walked off after Belmont Gold Cup in June, the 6 YO wanted nothing to do with the dirt slop when race moved off grass. G2 Kentucky Downs Turf Cup winner in 2024 and a beaten head at Gulfstream Park in a G2 in March.
Major Dude, Tawny Port and Get Smokin are where I cut off the contenders for the Exacta.
Trainer Todd Pletcher's Major Dude is a 5YO making 20th Turf Start. 9 of 19 in the exacta over grass, first time at this distance and first time at Monmouth. Last time out was at 1 Mile. Hasn't gone past 9f in 5 races, the Pegasus Turf G1 where he was in a position to close but didn't.
Tawny Port also wanted nothing to do with the slop in the Belmont Gold Cup and eased to be 81 lengths back (I'd called that eased). Two Show finishes in two tries at Monmouth, but both gutty efforts. Miguel Clement saddles him, the Turk still isn't ready to memorialize his favorite trainer, Christophe Clement, but rest in peace. No wins in four tries at this distance. 1 win in 12 turf starts.
8 YO Get Smokin must be respected for his game win here last year.
Starting Over and Vote No could have been considered, but I don't see it, although the 4 YO Vote No has 3 wins in 6 turf stars , closes well and is a last race winner.
I think I'd be foolish to not cover Redistricting and Limited Liability in the top two spots. Rebel Red and Grand Sonata, Vote No and Tawny Port are my contenders.
Rebel Red OVER Redistricting, Limited Liability, Grand Sonata, and Tawny Port, a $2 Exacta for $8.
A dart throw really. I think Rebel Red will be no better than 3rd on the Tote Board and I'm looking for value.
Have fun friends, Turk Out!
7 OVER 3-4-2
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