Sunday, July 23, 2017

Post Race Analysis of Eddie Reed at Del Mar and Diana at Saratoga

Lady Eli up to win The Diana
Welcome friends to The Turk and The Little Turk Post Race Analysis.

Handicapping for these two races was not complicated and in many ways very similar.  Both had what should have been overwhelming favorites taking on slightly lesser competition.  The Chalks went into the gate at $0.95 to $1 for Lady Eli and $0.70 to $1 for Ashleyluvssugar.  It was tee'd up for the classic single the heavy chalk and find value in Place and Show -OR- Beat the favorite and watch the payouts go big (See Arrogate in the San Diego).  Speaking of Arrogate, The Turk said pre-race he really hates the returning from Dubai first race back angle.  I find it's almost as bad (with smaller sample size) than the first race back after Breeder's Cup.  These big events take a toll.

I said Lady Eli would win that race 90 out of 100 times.  I still believe that.  I said Lady Eli, Antonoe, Dickerson and Quidora would be 1-4 on the tote board and they were.  My handicap could have easily netted a $22.20 exacta and $66.50 Trifecta.

It's so rare to see a horse break through the gate and then run well.  Lady Eli really impressed me today.  I'll be curious where Antonoe is pointed next as I'm still high on the physically big filly.

In the Eddie Reed, my real coup was where I rated Mr. Roary.  I thought he'd be Place or Show and he was, while the betting public had her sixth out of 7th.  It's that sort of edge that separates you from the public and gives you an opportunity to make money in this game.   My handicap would have given you the Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta.  The $2 Superfecta paid $485.60.

Ashleyluvssugar is an inconsistent runner who Stevens usually gets the most out of.  Overbet, but the field didn't exactly lend itself to confidence in the other runners.  Hunt (Ire) and Mr. Roary should be added to virtual stables and kept tabs of.

Have fun with the races friends.  I'll be back with Tuesday's $500,000 Prince of Wales Stakes from Fort Erie.

Turk Out!

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