Friday, February 20, 2009
The Nomination Is In: February 21, 2009- The Rare Treat 65K at Aqueduct
The Turk is an optimist. He always sees his bourbon glass half full (with ice cubes solid) and his cigar humidor is always a perfect 70% relative humidity (with a fine Cuban via Canada waiting for him).
Saturday's race number 3 at Aqueduct, The Rare Treat 65K, 1 1/8 miles on the inner dirt track for fillies and mares 3 YO and up, tests my optimism. Of the 7 entrants, a total of 32 starts between them on the inner track, with only 5 wins in the bunch. Aristo in the 2 post earned three of them. By the way, that handsome colt is Stymie, sire of Rare Treat, Dam of What A Treat.
I can't see how Weathered won't be the chalk. She earned three 90 plus Beyers in 2008, far outstripping the field. She's been training well since her last race in early January. The knock on her is she's been fading in races at 1 mile. Today's stretch to 1 1/8 should test her, but the works seem to be building her towards this.
John Terranova is really sporting some big trainer stats. He brings Successful Sarah, who was successful before Terranova took her over, into the three post. Not sure what form she's in but the horse is a winner on fast dirt tracks.
The Turk isn't a name bettor, but he likes Bourbon Maid for the name but also as a runner. 6 starts and 6 finishes in the money on fast dirt. Only 1 win in 10 starts lifetime. Violette's trainer stats are really ugh.
I don't have a betting strategy yet, but it seems to me my top two horses will finish in the money, so I may stick with what has been working for me and insert several other horses into the show spot on a tri ticket and see what happens. I'll be watching the tote to see where the value is on the middle part of my grading, but I think I have the top and bottom down pretty good.
Update: The Turk doesn't like to handicap with the Morning Lines, just the weather report for the track. The other thing I sometimes miss is scratches. I saw in the PP that Sucessful Sarah was entered on the 20th but ignorned it until a few minutes ago. Yup, she raced.
The only thing it changes is my betting strategy. I will tentativly slide Bourbon Maid into place and Rap Tale into show and I'll watch the tote before making my final bet. Regardless of what I do, I'm sticking with Weathered to win and keying others to her.