Saturday, February 7, 2009

The Nominations Are In: February 7th, 2009

Spectacular, Spectacular. The Turk would love nothing better then to be at the track today, but which one? If forced to choose, I'd say Santa Anita. If I was picking for the most compelling race to me, it would be Fair Grounds.

The Turk has analyzed five races today: Race 8 at FG, The Risen Star G3, Race 8 at Aqu, The Whirlaway 100K, Race 6 at Santa Anita, The Las Virgenes G1, Race 8 at Santa Anita, The Robert B. Lewis G2 and finally Race 9 at Santa Anita, The Strub G2.

Fair Grounds Race 9: The Risen Star G3, 1 1/16 miles on Dirt for 3 YOs.

As usual, my analysis is not a betting strategy. I have constructed a matrix of my expected order of finish. As always, I believe strongly in watching the tote board and looking for value, even if that means betting my third favorite to win if his value is just wowza!

I think my two top horses, Fiesan Fire and Giant Oak are far from locks. My second tier of horses, especially Indygo Mountain and It Happened Here could surprise for a solid win payout. I'm intrigued by Flying Pegasus and Giant Oak, as I think their stock could really rise.

Aqueduct Race 8: The Whirlaway 100k: 1 1/16 miles on dirt for 3 YOs.

Ho hum field. I expect Haynesfield will continue his dominating streak.

Santa Anita Race 6: The Las Virgenes G1: 1 Mile on Pro Ride for Fillies 3 YO.

Another race with a dominating Chalk. Stardom Bound, the beautiful gr/ro hasn't raced since the Breeder's Cup and has a new trainer with Frankel. Work steady.

I'm going to take a 2 buck flyer in the race in the hope that Stardom Bound isn't sharp. My best two candidates are Navigator and Saucey Evening. Like I said, I'd love to see this one live.

Santa Anita Race 8: The Robert B. Lewis: 1 1/16 miles on Pro Ride for 3 YOs.

Pioneerof the Nile finds himself all over Derby favorite lists, and rightfully so. He's a synthetic monster and will be a force in California, of that I am sure. Since the Cash Call, he has worked steady and with urgency in his gallop. 6f and 5f work is very, very good.

I Want Revenge gave Pioneerof the Nile everything he could handle in the CashCall. Papa Clem, and a possible live wire, Oil Man, may compete. As I said, I wish I was here today.

Santa Anita Race 9: The Strub G2: 1 1/8 on Pro Ride for 4 YOs.
I'm burned out at this point, so now charts. i'll be watching Gio Ponti, Nownownow, Cowboy Cal, and from the 13 post Slew's Tiznow. I'm taking Nownownow.

1 comment:

Amateurcapper said...

Jay Privman calls days like today "sensory overload Saturday." Almost too much action for one day!

Check my post for details but here's the "Cliff's Notes" version.

I see your reasoning re: Friesan Fire's recency but recall that didn't help Z Fortune vs. comebacking Pyro ("Full of Fire") last year. Flying Pegasus drew horribly or I'd pick him over all.

Didn't look at the Whirlaway more than to notice Haynesfield will eventually feel his distance limitations. I hope he wins so I can play against him next out.

If Stardom Bound doesn't win I'd want to get paid. There's a 20-1 shot I think can make some noise.

The Lewis, short edge to I Want Revenge over Pioneer of the Nile but there's a LS with a big look.

In the Strub, I'm against the speed ('Cal, 'Tiznow) and for a stretch running winner. You're top choice is mine, but he's a tepid one over Gio Ponti. My post has two LS's with big looks.

Good luck