Saturday, February 7, 2009

Post Race Analysis for Raceday February 7, 2009

The Turk enjoyed today's races, even if they were a bit chalky. As I show, mixing in some longer odd horses with the chalk can still produce a good Trifecta.

Race 8 at Aqueduct: The Whirlaway Stakes 100k, 1 1/16 on dirt for 3 YOs.

The Turk felt really good about Haynesfield today, and I also felt and wrote that I expected Mike from Queens to take show. I thought that Peace Town would take the place, and he was there to the top of the stretch before fading and giving way to Cellar Dweller, a horse I had a hunch could make some exotic tickets work today.

I don't think much was reveled today except there aren't many 3 YOs at this meet at the Big A of the quality to take on Haynesfield. His last four races have been won by a collective 19 1/2 lengths. How good is he?

Fair Grounds Race 9: The Risen Star Stakes, G3: 1 1/16 miles on Dirt for 3 YOs.

I'm still shocked that the bettors choice of chalks was Giant Oak. Yes, I liked this colt too, but Friesan Fire in my mind clearly has better current form, and I found it no surprise Larry Jones horse won again.

Post race analysis confirms my pre race opinion that Flying Pegasus was up to the challenge, but I had discounted Uno Mas. It seemed to me the horse had hit a wall and was as good as he would get. While not a great finish, I won't criticize a finish in the money too much. I guess I was most disappointed in Indygo Mountain. He really needs to show something soon, or he just isn't the colt I think he is.

Race 6 at Santa Anita: The Las Vigenes G1: 1 Mile on Pro Ride for 3 YO Fillies.

No great surprises here. Stardom Bound. Stardom Bound. Stardom Bound. My dearly departed Aunt Rosie would have loved this beautiful grey who showed speed and power today.

I was surprised to see Saucy Evening bet down as low as she was. She ran a gutty race, as did Haka. I discounted African Skies (GB) greatly, but she ran well and we'll look for her again.

Race 8 at Santa Anita: The Robert Lewis Stakes G2: 1 1/16 miles on Pro Ride for 3 YOs.

Break out the cigars. Pour the bourbon. The Turk hit himself a nice Trifecta in this race. I liked Papa Clem a lot, for no particular reason and he didn't disappoint. If you can insert a longer odds horse into the Tri with a chalk that will win, if gives you a good shot at payouts like this. I have to count, but I've hit maybe three of these since November. The money I've made just on those three wins easily balances the books on my misses. I have no illusions of beating the races, but I do like to prove that a $2 bettor can break even if he keeps his betting discipline. The tri paid $100.90.

Whew! It was a full day. Thanks to my horse racing friends who motivate me to do my homework and produce the best quality blog I'm capable of.

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