Sunday, February 15, 2009

Post Race Analysis for Raceday February 14, 2009

Aqueduct Race 3: The Dearly Precious Stakes 65K; 6f on the inner dirt for fillies 3 YO.



I was not enamored with this 5 horse field, but I had no doubt in my mind I could predict the top three horses. The dilemma I had was do I box or not? Looking at the tote board, I would have been boxing the top three bettors choices and I estimated the trifecta after the bet was no more then 25 bucks or so. While it would have worked in my favor this time, I protect my bankroll and this just isn't the type of bet for the conservative bettor I am. I passed and the trifecta paid $54.00.

I was a bit surprised at how dominant Dream Play was in the stretch. I liked Chatterbox and was right that Lisa Too was a bit overheated, and she was way over bet.

The game the Turk plays is small bets, mid sized rewards, and that means I'll sometimes leave money on the table, but it could have easily have gone south and you always have to weigh the risk and reward.

Tampa Bay Downs race 9: The Endeavour Stakes Grade III; For fillies and mares 4 YO and up.



I really liked this field. I knew Ballymore Lady and Elusive Lady were good horses, but I expected more of an effort from Ginger Brew and Stormy West. I had a straight tri bet that mirrored my pre race choices and lost.


Tampa Bay Downs Race 10: Sam F. Davis Stakes Grade III; 1 1/16 on dirt for 3 YOs.



Amateurcapper (http://amateurcapper.blogspot.com/) had talked up Sumo in a comment I saw him leave at another bloggers site. I tip my hat to him, as Sumo was truly live and long. I did win a nice $13.50 win bet on General Quarters but lost the straight tri I bet based on my pre race choices.


Sam F. Davis Stakes



Santa Anita Race 9: The Santa Maria Handicap Grade I; 1 1/16 miles on pro-ride for fillies and mares 4 YO and up.



I was shocked at how low the bettors bet down Visit. I think she's a fine horse, and I had her pre-race in a superfecta, which I didn't place, but I can't believe she went off as the chalk. Checking the board just before post, I liked the value on Santa Teresita and cashed a $13.40 win bet.



It wasn't a sexy collection of bets I made, but productive and I continue to scratch out decent returns with low risk. They won't write books about the Turk, but it ain't about sexy, it's about positive cash flow.

The Little Turk had a great birthday and I thank all the folks who sent him birthday cheer. We'll be back tomorrow for a pre race look at the Grade III Southwest Stakes from Oaklawn.

2 comments:

Keith - TripleDeadHeat said...

The Dearly Precious was a money maker for me but I think Liza Too was really hampered by her poor start and quick first quarter.

That's a horse I'll be looking for next time out...

The Turk said...

Keith, I think you're right on Lisa Too. This wasn't a good spot for her. I'm glad you made money on this one, I should have too, and the difference between me and a whale is I'm very, very conservative with my bankroll. I lack the mindset to ever be a big player, but instead I find it really fun to eeeck out profits while betting no more that 6 bucks most races. Everybody has to have their 'thang and that's mine.