The Nomination Is In: The Woodward Stakes G1 at Saratoga

Seeking the Soul: Coady Photography

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk.  I'd like to thank the good people of The Thorofan and the Thorofan Handicappers Corner for allowing me the opportunity to share my thoughts with you today reading the $750 Woodward Stakes at Saratoga.

This has been a race I've gravitated to over the years as some of my favorites: Lawyer Ron, Curlin, Rachel Alexandra, Quality Road, Harve de Grace and Gun Runner have all won this since 2007.  Perhaps none of these runners are of that quality, but we at least certainly have quantity today with 14 in the starting gate.  This is going to be an excellent betting race.  There are no heavy chalks, no locks for Win-Place, I see this as a pretty wide open race and to me that's opportunity. I've got a tepid chalk on my board as Seeking the Soul, with my fair line odds 5-1 with his morning line 4.5-1.

You'll find Scratches and Changes here.  You'll find the weather here, and by the looks of it we should have a dry, fast dirt track.

Let's get after it!




It's been some time since I had a more tepid chalk than I have today.  I've put Seeking the Soul on top:4 Straight 100+ Beyers, 5 of 6in the money at the distance, 13 of 17 in the money on Fast Dirt, sharp work over the dirt and a Saratoga win.  Castellano up a week after Catholic Boy victory ride in the Travers for Dallas Stewart.

Pegasus World Cup G1: 1 1/8 Miles  Fast Dirt; GP; January 2018



Sunny Ridge comes in after setting career best Beyer of 102 in the State Dinner 98K at Belmont over fast dirt at 1 1/16 miles.



Trainer Servis and I. Ortiz are 29% at Saratoga in 55 starts and 33% over past year at all tracks in 181 starts.  One win in six starts at the distance but 6 wins in 13 starts over fast dirt.

Gunnevera is the Morning Line favorite and I would expect will enter the gate as post time favorite.  In his last ten races he's one three times:  an OC 62K 3 weeks ago (an 85 Beyer), a 107K Stakes one year ago and The Fountain of Youth G2 in March of 2017.  The link between all these wins are they were all at Gulfstream Park.  Woof!  He's got a huge late Timeform Pace of 131.  Here he was in good form at the Travers in 2017 taking a big, wide, dirty run at West Coast, but he doesn't reach him until 1 1/4 miles and this is 1/8 less.



Watching that Travers Stakes, I'll pause to remember Irap as well.  An absolutely beautiful colt who left us too soon.

Irap: WSVX FM

The nearly $3.0 Million dollar earning Gunnevera will be coming late, but will he have enough tactical speed early on to be well positioned.  That's something the handicapper must consider.  I'm betting against him to win and I'm not even sure I'll cover him to Place (and yes, that should all but assure he does win!)

I like two higher prices to contend for Place: Leofric and Zanotti.    I hate the draw for both of them and possibly it dooms them, but I'm thinking that this race might be won by a horse that's 5-1 or worse and the Place horse could be 15-1 or worse, so yes, its a bit of gut and gamble (we are gambling after all).

Leofric, a smallish grey/roan gelded son of Candy ride (Arg) is trained by Brad Cox.


West Virginia Governor G3; 1 1 1/16 Miles Fast Dirt MNR.



If it gets sloppy he has a 447 Tomlinson for Wet Dirt.

Razorback Handicap G3:  1 1/16 Miles Muddy/sealed




Again, he's not as talented as many of the horses her, but he ships well, wins on different tracks and he's gutty.  Place in an Exacta at 20-1 or worse is worth a wager to me.

Zanotti as an 8/5 favorite finished Place in the Monmouth Cup G3 last time out.  While a gutty stretch run he couldn't seal the effort and didn't look good at the distance.  1 win in 5 starts at the distance but 4 Places so 5 for 5 in the money at 1 1/8 Miles.  5 Place finishes in 6 starts in 2018.




While I have six runners listed as no higher than Exotic, I'll most likely play a few in the Place spot of the Exacta.

In that mix is both Tapwrit and Discreet Lover, running recently in the sloppy and sealed Whitney G1  at 1 1/8 miles. Discreet Lover has  big closing run speed while Tapwrit hasn't won since his Belmont win last year.  I'm more inclined to think that Discreet Lover has a better chance of hitting the board than Tapwrit.



Two Calumet Farms breds are in my next grouping, Patch and Hence.  Patch and Kurilov (Chi) squared off at 1 1/8 miles over fast dirt at Saratoga three weeks ago in the Alydar 97K. 





Hence enters 4 weeks after winning as a heavy chalk in a 200K Stakes at Albuquerque Downs.  Best known for his impressive Sunland Derby win in his 3 YO campaign that made him a trendy Kentucky Derby pick (and unimpressive 18 lengths behind Always Dreaming).



I like Yosida (Jpn) quite a bit but on Turf and not at 5-1 Morning Line.  Yes, I trust and respect Bill Mott so I will be watching the tote and if his price gets a but larger I'll consider him but I like others much more.

 I tossed Rally Cry (Mike Smith up) as I think he'll have to work too hard just to overcome his post draw.  I tossed Imperative as I  think the gelding deserves a retirement home, even though he's still shows flashes.  I tossed Term of Art, although more talented than some of these runners, winless at the distance in 3 starts, 1 win in last ten starts.  I respect Cox as a conditioner but its a 14 horse field and you can't cover everyone.

So what to do with all this?

I'll be looking at Exacta and Win Bets.  I'm thinking of no more than $16 Wagered and I view this as low risk high reward.  My early thoughts are:

$1 Exacta:  10-8-12 OVER 10-8-12...11-13-7  $15

That's Seeking the Soul/Discreet Lover/Sunny Ridge Over Seeking the Soul/Discreet Lover/Sunny Ridge and Leofric/Zanotti/Kurilov (Chi)

That might not be the exact bet but you get the idea.  This is the sort of race you can Tote Board Handicap.  Pair a few favored horses with some longer prices and have some fun with it.


Thanks for reading, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Kentucky Downs Tourist Mile $750K

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk, now in our 9th Year and 11th month of providing horse handicapping and bet construction to people who neither asked for it nor read it much anymore!

The Turk absolutely loves the quirky turf only track in Franklin, Kentucky, Kentucky Downs. Quite frankly the only thing I don't like about this boutique meet is how short it is, as I'm always left wanting for more.  I'll be playing at least Race 7 (One Dreamer 250K, For F&M 3 YO and Up that haven't won a sweepstakes in 2018 and Race 8, The Tourist Mile 750K for 3 YO and Up, which I'm blogging the details of today.

Are you familiar with Kentucky Downs?  The video below gives you a feel for the Euro flavor sweeping first turn and the tighter second turn.  As well, last year's Tourist Mile is below for familiarization.  The only horse running back in the Tourist Mile is 5 YO Bandar.  Master Merion, a 4 Yo Quality Road gelding trained by Wesley Ward has a win in his only start here while Mr. Cub is 1 win in 2 starts here, a 125K ALW last year at 1 mile on good turf where he pressed the pace all the way before shaking clear as a 4-1 carrying 118# (125# today).   




2017 Kentucky Downs Tourist Mile; For 3 YOs and Up; Turf listed as Good




I went through quite a bit of analysis that was originally developed by Dick Downey of the Downey Profile.  You'll find Dick's Twitter feed here.

You find entries, scratches and changes and track condition here.  The weather looks right now to be wet and I would suspect the track will not be firm.  Let's get after it!

UPDATE 3:00 PM ET:  SCRATCH 2 Master Merion.  Turf FIRM. 




Mr. Misunderstood is having a wonderful turf career: 11 of 13 in the money over grass with 10 wins, setting his best 101 speed rating in the Grade 1 Makers Mark Mile at Kee.  This is a class drop for him, even from his second to last time out win in the Grade 2 Wise Dan at CD in June and his win in the Ellis Park Preview Mile for Kentucky Downs 26 days ago.

In general you'll note the Turk's Fair Line doesn't show much separation;  72.63% chance my top four wins.  This excites me thinking about the Will Pays on Exacta betting for multiple value combinations.

Mr. Cub is 8 of 14 lifetime in the money over turf, 3 of 3 lifetime at the distance and has a one mile win pressing the pace over good grass a year ago.  The 4 YO Artie Schiller gelding runs back on a 3 week layoff after a dull effort in Lure 100K, 1 1/16 Miles over good turf at SAR.



The running line calls his lost momentum a bobble.  It looked to me like a bobble or he just lost footing on his hard inside line, but whatever the horse was in front on a soft pace and at the top of the stretch dropped back to last quickly.

Bound for Nowhere, talk about a class drop, from a 6F  good turf race at Ascot to Franklin!  He ran a big race in field of 12.



118 Early US Timeform pace.  Distance increase, stretching out from his comfort zone of 5-6 F which makes some sense as the 4 Yo son of The Factor.  Julio Garcia is back up for Wesley Ward, and the combo are 41% winners  on 86 starts over past year all tracks. Here they win the Shakertown Stakes G2 at KEE, 5 1/2 Furlongs over soft footing.  Watch him explode in the straight.




Ken and Sarah Ramsey's Camelot Kitten has a very good late turn of foot with a 113 late Timeform pace fig. 1 win in last 9 starts, a fake dirt Turfway Park win in the Kentucky Cup Classic 100K.  4 wide in the last turn and his closing speed on full display.  I don't like the lack of winning, and he hasn't even been in the money but the one time in last 9 races




Krampus cuts back in distance while increasing in class.  He won last time out at 1 1/8th pressing the pace with an 89 Beyer over firm turf in a 62K OC N2X.  The 4 Yo gelded son of Shakespeare has 4 wins and is in the money 6 out of 8 starts over grass.

Master Merion, a gelded 4 Yo Quality Road ( a Turk favorite runner and a damn fine sire) is 10 of 11 in the money over grass and 4 of 5 in the money at the distance with a win at Kentucky Downs in one start.  He's also first time back from Ascot for Wesley Ward but didn't do as well as Bound for Nowhere.  Last turf win was a Breeders' Cup Weekend undercard race, Let It Ride Stakes 79K at Del Mar at 1 Mile over firm turf. I may have him too low and is a live threat at least for Place and Show.





Finally Great Wide Open (Ire) has one win in last 11, 4 wins in 24 turf starts and the 6 YO comes in on a 61-180 day break (June 23).  Big early Timeform Pace of 124.  Last few running lines: "....drifted...faltered late...no response...weakened late....game and faded.."  The "game" was his last win, 1 mile 80K OC on turf at FG.  Eh.

I tossed Bandar from contention at my own peril

I'm not sure what I'm doing yet with this one.  I'm thinking about $8-10 of Exactas and $4 of Win Bets defensively bet.  I want to get a better feel for the surface and the Will Pays before committing.

Have Fun, Turk Out!

Anatomy of a Bet: The H. Allen Jerkens at Saratoga

Promises Fulfilled: Photo Horse Racing Nation @HR_Nation

Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk, Post Race Edition.

As I've been telling my readers, I'm a judicious bettor.  I'm a prolific handicapper, but the compulsion to bet doesn't exist in me.  I handicapped Races 6-12 at Saratoga today and only played a Pick 3 and one vertical bet, The H. Allen Jerkens.

I spent some pretty solid time analyzing this race, especially a breakdown of video on all the contenders and some of the late speed.  You'll find that blog post here.  

I swung for the fences on my primary bet.  In a rare WIN-PLACE bet I wagered $10 for $20 total on the turf to dirt switchover for Team Zayat/Pletcher and J. Velazquez, Gidu (Ire).  A $2 Win bet would have paid $21.60 and my $10 Win Bet would have paid $108.  I liked the pre race work on the dirt, especially the 4F 1st of 60 :47 3/5ths.  I don't mind taking a swing like that and missing.  I only need to hit one out of 5 to break even.

My defensive position was an Exacta.  I had determined to single the likely winner, Promises Fulfilled.  I really believed Engage or Firenze Fire would finish in Place and the bet would pay little.  I noted the Will Pays (on $2 Bet) just before Post Time:

#1 Promised Fulfilled with

• #2 Telekinesis    $48
• #3 Engage   $20
• #5 Seven Trumpets $70
• #6 Gidu (Ire) $74
• #7 Still Having Fun  $42
• #8  Firenze Fire $16

#4 Gemeaminit and #9 Funny Duck I tossed and  didn't even consider them.  

With the likely winning bet paying between $16 and $20 I limited my defensive bet to $8.

$2 Exacta #1 OVER 2,5,6,7 for $8  excluding #3 Engage and #8 Firenze Fire.  I wanted value in this defensive bet as I was wagering $28 total dollars and wanted to at least cover the risky Win Place Bet on Gidu (Ire).  I could have wagered $12 and included Engage and Firenze Fire but I just don't think that's smart money management (although I'm guilty of it at times)

I said Pre Race that Seven Trumpets had a solid 109 Late Pace Timeform and would be moving forward at the end.  I also showed some nice racing by Seven Trumpets late in the Dwyer, highlighting the exceptionally savvy riding of Robbie Albarado.  It was that work that paid off, putting the 32-1 win odds shot in the place spot and winning $82 on an $8 ticket.  

You can find the full DRF Race Chart at this link.

I've said it for years and I'll continue to say it:  You don't need to bet every race.  Do your homework, bet when you feel like you have a knowledge edge.

Thanks for reading.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The H. Allen Jerkens G1 at Saratoga

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk.  Don't bother coming to look for me today in the clubhouse, I won't be there.  I'm a bit under the weather and had to pass on the 300 mile drive from Buffalo to Saratoga.  I'll have to watch and play from home.  Feel free to go sit in Section H Row K seats 5 and 6 if they are an upgrade to what you have!

I took a deep dive into the H. Allen Jerkens G1 today.  I'll be playing all the races but this one interested me enough as quite frankly I don't spend much time with 3 YO sprinters.


The weather today seems to be dry.  You'll find Scratches/Changes and Track Conditions at this NYRA link.  By the way, it's pretty weak NYRA that this page is unavailable at 9:45 AM day of the biggest day of the meet.  As of 12:30 ET I see no changes to the sixth race announced.

Lets get right to this!


Race 6:  The H. Allen Jerkens (King Bishop) G1;  7 Furlongs; Dirt

Amsterdam G3: 6 1/2 F Good Dirt

Dwyer G3: 1 mile Fast Dirt



The race was really contested from the 1/2 mile pole up the stretch;  In this picture you'll see just before the 1/2 pole Firenze Fire (118 Late Timeform Pace) starting to move and looking to the outside as the rail is covered.   Seven Trumpets is covered in 4th along the rail






















With Robbie Albarado upon Seven Trumpets, he made a masterful move pulling away from the rail diagonally in the turn to clear Mendelssohn and continue the charge at Firenze Fire.

Ultimately, Firenze Fire rolled to 9 length win with Seven Trumpets took a well beaten Place


Let's go back to the Woody Stephens G2: 7F Fast Dirt




In this race we had absolutely blistering fractions set mostly by Promises Fulfilled: :21.46 First 1/4 and :22.22 Second Quarter and :24.75 third quarter with a plodding :27.58 adjusted last quarter (13.79 final 1/8).

Just look at the lane Still Having Fun (109 Timeform Pace Late) has to run into against tiring front runners.  The modestly bred Maryland bred set his career best Beyer on this day.  Engage (4 Places in seven career starts) again has no excuse for lacking a finishing kick. It didn't come out very clearly but that's Givemeaminit 18 lengths back before finishing about 7 back.  The Dallas Stewart trained La bred Star Guitar son followed this up with a dog of an Indiana Derby with a bad ride and he gets Leparoux up today.

With one hop to the wire, Engage has conceded to Still Having Fun while Givemeaminit is flying. Promises Fulfilled had nothing left.

Don't completely dismiss Ontario bred Telekinesis.  here he runs a pretty steady pace over fake dirt in the Plate Trial, beating the Place horse to Wonder Gadot next time out breaking from 15th post.






Pletcher brings an interesting Gidu (Ire) into this race.  First time dirt for the son of Frankel (GB) with J. Velaquez up.  He was the heavy chalk here beating Curlin's Honor at 7f over very firm turf at BEL in the Paradise Creek 98K.



Funny Duck  has a race third best Slop Tomlinson of 428 and won his only win on dirt in Pat Day Dirt Mile G3 at CD at 39-1.




Analysis by paralysis or good info?  I'll leave that to my readers to decide but I find these breakdowns very helpful to me as I'm assigning worth to an individual race effort.  These 3 Yo sprint classifications to me are random:  What makes this race today a Grade 1 and was the Amsterdam a Grade 3 or the Woody Stephenson a G2? To me, they are all about the same and I refuse to credit much of a difference to winning one over the other.




I can't say I have a very strong opinion and this should be a very good betting race.  I like Promises Fulfilled to break very fast and carry speed to win.  I would not be surprised if he was gobbled up in the last 1/8 of a mile.

I would not expect Engage to be the gobbler.  He's shown a propensity to finish in Place and that's where I'm tucking him in.

Firenze Fire will have to get a great ride breaking from the 8th post but should be flying late.

Gidu (Ire) is a real wild card and you have to respect Pletcher, The Zayat's and JV for placing the colt in this spot.  At the odds, worth consideration for Win-Place or Show.

Don't sleep on Telekensesis but I think its a minor prize only, and I could say the same about Seven Trumpets and Still Having Fun, both of these colts  have 109 Late Pace Timeforms and should be advancing at the end.

Have fun friends.  Turk Out!

Closer Look: Video Handicapping The Lake Placid G2 at Saratoga

Welcome to the Turk and the Little Turk.

I slept on the 8-9-10 pick 3 at Saratoga and thought I'd spend some time this morning building out my final thoughts and creating bet strategy.

The Turk isn't a high volume gambler.  There was a time in my life when I had lots of time to handicap, build bets and just watch the results.  I did that for years while I worked a job that had me sitting in a room watching computers for 12 hours at a time.  I did my job, did it well, but always had the race form nearby for a few minutes of handicapping.  The day would begin with reading the results in the sports page, an era when you could easily find limited results on the full card in each daily paper.  Over the years, I've become a selective player, mostly vertical betting of stakes races.  I gamble judiciously.  I realize when I gamble my edge goes away when the public has more information or is just as knowledgeable about the runners as I am.  Chalks are chalkier and wise guy horses mostly represent a way to look smart on Twitter before the race is actually run. How to find an edge in stakes?  Video and Trip Handicapping has become a bigger tool for me over the years.  I can glean information from the PPs but sometimes just slowing down to watch a two minute race in snapshots at points of call can really draw a picture.

Let's take a closer look at the Grade 2 Lake Placid  1 1/8 Miles on SOFT Mellon Turf.

G1 Belmont Oaks Invitational: 1 1/4 Miles Firm BEL turf:

Let's pay attention to:

• Thewayiam (Fr):  Light Blue/Pink Diamond #8 Pink Cloth with Black number

• Capla Temptress (Ire):  Forest green, Crimson Triangular panel: #4 Yellow (Gold) cloth with black numbers.

• Significant Form: Dark Green, Light Green Sash, White: #1 Red with White Number

Top of Stretch- Belmont Oaks Invitational

Athena makes her move

Deep Stretch-no excuses #8/#1

Tight Quarters after Athena on the wire

Hard to make excuses for Significant Form in particular.  While there may have been a bit of a bump, I. Ortiz was uncovered and lacked response.  Her Timeform late pace value of 79 seems valid here.  The cutback of 1/8 of a mile and class drop can't hurt.

I like how Thewayiam (Fr) competed for positioning.  9 of 11 in the money.  I'm considering she might like the turf softer than others here.

Mott's Capla Temptress (Ire) looked the part of a 59 Early/102 late pace form.  I really liked her late and with a ML of 6-1 I think she's a great Place candidate in the Exacta.



G3 Lake George: 1 1/16 on SAR outer (Mellon) Turf

• Daddy is a Legend: Florescent orange/Chartreuse Sash, Hot; #3 Horse Blue with White Number

• Andina Del Sur: Orange, Green Sleeves with Two White Hoops; #5 Green with White Number

One picture, whole story.  Andina Del Sur tracked along at at the top of the stretch found herself needing to split horses.  The gap seemed there, she did not and she stayed on flat in the pack.  Daddy is a Legend? With Franco up, the Red Sea parted, the rail was uncontested and she was gone with a pedestrian:29.25 final 5/16ths.



G3 Wonder Again Stakes: 1 1/8 Miles Bel Inner Turf

• Andina Del Sur: Orange, Green Sleeves with Two White Hoops; #6 Black Cloth with Gold Number

• Daddy is a Legend: Florescent orange/Chartreuse Sash, Hot; #8 Pink Cloth with Black number

• Significant Form: Dark Green, Light Green Sash, White: #5 Green with White Number

1/2 Mile Pole

Wonder Again-Wire 3/5 sec gap

Paceless really:  The winner was 3 1/2 lengths in front at 1/2 mile and the three we are paying attention to are stretched out in the next three spots over 7-8 lengths.  At the wire, same line, a bit more bunched, same order.


G2 Appalachian:  1 Mile over yielding turf at KEE

• Rushing Fall Neon green, Purple Ball, Green 'E'; #2 White Cloth with Black Number.
• Thewayiam (Fr) #9
• Daddy is a Legend #1

Turn to 1 Mile Finish

Daddy is a Legend cracks under the drive of Rushing Fall.  Thewayiam (Fr) really comes at Rushing Fall in last 1/16 of a mile.  Have we seen anything to believe that Daddy is a Legend will want more ground?  This was listed as yielding.  Thewayiam seemed to like the footing as did Rushing Fall.  Small sample size with three year olds.


Penn Oaks $200K; 1 Mile on Firm Turf




Thewayiam (Fr) making a big run again between 15/16ths and 1 mile.



What to make of this?




I think I'm favoring Thewayiam (Fr) catching Rushing Fall in the last hops.  Capla Temptress (Ire) is live at a big price and Significant Form is most likely a step better than Capla Temptress (Ire).  Daddy is a Legend seems like a minor prize at best. 

As predicted, the rains have taken the 10th race off the turf and the grass is listed as Soft.  No scratches yet in the 8th and the 9th.  Keep your eye on this NYRA link for up to date information. 


Have fun with it. 

The Nomination Is In: The Grade 2 Lake Placid and the Grade 1 Alabama at Saratoga

Spa Giveaway-Alabama Day 2008

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog, now in our 9th year and 11th month of providing handicapping and bet construction to people who never asked for it.  It is, however free, and it as I might add, positive ROI over a long period of time.  

Why does the Turk blog?  I guess the easiest answer is he likes too.  Some people like crosswords, some watch Jeopardy, some online porn.  Me, I like my work very much and blogging is an extension of my work.  I analyze data and I develop good money strategy, which is exactly what I do for a living.  

I was out (albeit briefly) at Del Mar last week, and next Saturday I'll be in Saratoga for Travers Day. I haven't attend a Travers since 2007, when the Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense avoided the Spa Curse, and also the day Hard Spun became a Grade 1 winner in the King's Bishop.    I stopped going because I felt priced out.  I'm not super cost conscious, but Stub-Hubbed tickets in the clubhouse have gotten very pricey for the Travers and instead I started coming for either Alabama or Woodward Stakes day.  I purchased tickets in the hope of possibly seeing Justify, but I'm good with whomever shows up and quite frankly, I'm getting excited to see Wonder Gadot take on the colts.  I've enjoyed alot of Alabama Days and the hat pictured above was a bit of swag the Spa gave away in 2008.   I admit tho, I'm getting rain fatigue this meet and I'm dreading working hard on a multi race handicap only to see races pulled from turf or multiple scratches.  I'm going to hunker down and assume that the track is at least sloppy and sealed and the turf is soft.  The weather, is going to be wet.  You'll find the real Track Conditions and Scratches and Changes for NYRA/Saratoga here.  

My handicapping plan was to develop a Pick Three Strategy for Race 8-9-10, the G2 Lake Placid on Turf, The Alabama and a $25,000 1 Mile Turf Claimer that I fear will either be cancelled or shifted to the main track after I spend quality time on it.   Let's get after it!

Video Review for the G2 Lake Placid:  1 1/8 Miles on Mellon Turf.

G1 Belmont Oaks Invitational: 1 1/4 Miles Firm BEL turf 

G3 Lake George: 1 1/16 on SAR outer (Mellon) Turf



G3 Wonder Again Stakes: 1 1/8 Miles Bel inner Turf



G2 Appalachian:  1 Mile over yielding turf at KEE




Penn Oaks $200K; 1 Mile on Firm Turf




And the video review for The Alabama 1 1/4 Miles on Fast Dirt

G1 CCA Oaks 1 1/8 Miles on fast Dirt



Indiana Oaks G3: 1 1/16 Miles on Fast Dirt





Delaware Oaks G3:  1 1/16 Miles Fast Dirt



The Mother Goose G2: 1 1/16 Miles on fast BEL dirt.




What to make of this?




Instead of rambling about this one, I think I'm just going to let my base handicaps and fair lines speak for themselves.  These races were handicapped assuming soft turf and sloppy and sealed dirt. 

Midnight Bisou will most likely be singled on my Pick 3.  I'll be assembling value exactas on both races as I think there are some very good possibilities for both races. Hopefully the field sizes don't change.

I'll be back tomorrow with Race 10 once I get a feel for if the race will be run, by who and on what surface.

Turk out!

The Nomination Is In: The Secretariat and the Beverly D and the R 9-10-11 Pick 3

Million Preview Day July 2009

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog.

While I'm bummed to not be at this year's edition of Million Day, I know I'll be back soon and I'm still excited to play and be apart of the action.  That's Little Turk and I hanging out on Million Preview Day 2009.  AP gave away hats that day (Little Turk wearing) and I'm sporting a Santa Anita 2008 Breeders' Cup hat.  There should be better horse hats available for fans, but sadly they are mostly junk.

In yesterday's blog posting I put up my thoughts on The Million and this morning I'm fleshing out my thoughts on at least the Pick Three that begins with Race 9, The Secretariat and continues on in Race 10, The Beverly D.

What am I looking for in Turf racers?  I like to see late turn of foot, trip information for at least the last three months of races, gas conditions and distance that the horse has had the most sucess with, and class.  I'm less interested in W-P-S results than the visual look of the race shape and what the horse was able to do with the trip and pace it was presented with.  When judging Euros I use the Timeform information available and gather as much information as I can.

Let's work our way through the video handicapping of both races first.

Let's get after this!

Working backwards, relevant video on Race 10, the 1 3/16 Mile Beverly D.


The Diana G1 1 1/8 Miles Firm Turf- Sistercharlie






New York Stakes G2 1 1/4 Miles Firm Turf



Jenn Wily G1 1 1/16 Miles Firm Turf KEE




Belmont Oaks Invitational G1 1 1/4 Miles Firm Turf- Athena (Ire)






2017 Beverly D Stakes G1 1 3/16 Mile Firm Turf




In Race 9, The Secretariat at 1 1/4 Miles for 3 YOs 

Belmont Derby 1 1/4 Miles Firm Turf- Analyze It and Hunting Horn (IRE)




Kent Stakes G3 1 1/8 Miles Firm Turf: Carrick and Untamed Domain.  The former had no excuse while the later had a horrible trip.







Nasrullah Handicap 1 1/4 Miles Left Handed on Good Ground. Lucius Tiberius (Ire)




You'll find video of the American Derby G3 7 July 2018 at this link:  Dubby Dubbie, Captivating Moon,Pont Du Gard and Real Story.

You'll find a scouting report on Lucius Tiberius and Hunting Horn here.




The cost to benefit ratio of any horizontal bet is the races that add uncertainty, and with that uncertainty, long prices in the Win Spot.  In this sequence, Race 9 to me seems the most possible to produce a >10-1 Winner and possibly>12-1.  Avoid the temptation to cover too many horses, as in my example a 5-2-4 combo at $2 is an $80 bet.  I would rather lose $16 with a chance at winning three figures than bet $80 to make $80.  I'm most likely settling on Lucius Tiberius and Hunting Horn OVER Sistercharlie OVER Robert Bruce, Oscar Performance, Spring Quality and  Almanaar.  I'd actually be OK to $32 but you get the idea.

Have fun Friends!

Turk Out!

Little Turk: Million Day 34th Edition 2016

The Nomination Is In: The 36th Running of the Arlington Million G1

The Turk's beverage before 35th running of the Million

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog, now in our ninth year and eleventh month of providing handicapping insights to people who never asked for it.  I'm the Turk, a 52 year old bald blogger who has been handicapping since 1987.  My first time visiting Arlington was in 1985, the day the old track burned down.  I was in the US Navy stationed at Great Lakes and I was rounded up, put on a truck.  It was another 22 years before I returned and now I try to make Preview Day or the Million Day part of my annual calendar.  Circumstances this year (Family Reunion/Little Turk preparation for College) has me watching on TwinSpires TV, but I'll be back for the 37th,  God willing.

I could ramble quite a bit about Arlington Park.  It's a shame that Illinois racing isn't better.  The track is fantastic, the staff friendly, the fake dirt plays fair and the turf, in my humble opinion, is the best in North America, and its my second favorite track to play besides Kentucky Downs.  Every track has a vibe.  I've been to many facilities, big and small.  Arlington has a vibe I appreciate, it's my speed, and I wish I could go more often.

I have to give a plug to the good people at Hello Race Fans!  You absolute must check out their post for the Arlington Million.  If you are a data junkie like I am, you will go into overload.

Where is Divisidero running?  Entered at both Saratoga and Arlington Park for Saturday, I've even gone to extreme measures (tweeting the trainer) to know for sure.  By the way, an excellent article written by Natalie Voss for the Paulick Report can be found here on Trainer Kelly Rubley, Divisidero's conditioner (Voss, 2018).  I'm going to go with Daily Race Form reporting that states he's going to the Fourstar Dave at SAR.  I think he had a great shot at Arlington, but I always trust the connections know best.

 Let's get after it!



Let's take a look at some recent and not recent, still relevant video.


G1 Manhattan @BEL Firm Turf 1 1/4 Miles (June 2018)



Watch Robert Bruce (Yellow/Blue Sleeves/Yellow Cap) and watch the bump in the straight but his surge at the finish.  This was no simple 6th place finish.  With an upgraded pilot (no offense to Gaffalione at all) in I. Ortiz for Trainer Chad Brown, I make him my (light) chalk. Take another look at him here in the Grade 3 Fort Marcy where he gets the better of Spring Quality.

G3 Fort Marcy @ Belmont Firm Turf 1 1/8 Miles





G1 Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap on Firm Turf  1 1/8 Miles (Feb 2018)



When a 5-1 runner beats Beach Patrol and Divisidero take notice.  Almannar (GB) in the royal blue Shadwell Stables silks looked impressive with the late turn of foot.  The 6 YO gelding came back and won a 100K OC at Belmont on Belmont Stakes Day.

G1 United Nations @ Monmouth Firm Turf 1 3/8 miles (30 June)



Money Multiplier (royal blue with white stars) ran a good race against 23-1 Funtastic.  With an extra 1/8 of a mile.....

And a few looks at Oscar Performance:  7 Wins in 12 Turf Ties, 2 of 2 at the distance and $1.9 MM lifetime earnings for the 4 YO.

G1 Secretariat Stakes 2017 1 1/4 Miles Firm Turf (turn sound down-bad music alert)




G3 Poker Stakes @ Belmont Firm Turf 1 mile




You can find race replays for Arlington Park through this link.  Of note is July 7th, Million Preview Day with G3 Arlington H. and Stars and Stripes.

I can't say I have a strong opinion on this field.  I've essentially place the runners in three buckets:

Robert Bruce (Chi)/10
Oscar Performance/11
Spring Quality/2

All I think will be near front of pace and all I think can win.  Spring Quality, a Quality Road 6 YO is lightly raced but I'm a big fan of Mr. George Strawbridge and his Augustin Stable and how they train and prepare these amazing turf runners.  80 years old, a classy man.

Almanaar (GB)/3
Money Multiplier/8

They can win, but both need things to go their way.  No reason to not believe they will receive some prize,  Place-4th.

Deauville (Ire)/9

In the lead as the favorite in last year's edition and couldn't stay on.  Did another year improve him? Capable, but he hasn't won in over 10 races.  I'm betting that the uninitiated flock to the Euro invader and I need him to lose for me to win.

Century Dream (Ire)/5

First time lasik, 7 time turf winner, 4 Yo Cape Cross (Ire).  he's been coming up empty in one mile straights.  Won his last LH and has won at the distance.  I dunno right now but would I be surprised if he was Show-5th?  No.


Finally,  insert handicapping every time Jarvis says practice and this is my weekend handicapping mood!




Have fun, Turk out!

The Nomination Is In: The Ellis Park Kentucky Downs Preview Day

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog, nearly 10 full years and over 630 blog post offers to a reading public that never asked for such dreadful writing.  

I'll be honest, I’m not sure The Turk, late in our 9th year of blogging and with over 600 blog posts, has ever blogged Ellis Park Racing.  The Turk has zero bias against the good people of Ellis Park and their fine track, I'm just not sure I ever found the occasion to handicap and gamble there.  

Sunday's Kentucky Downs Preview Day gives me just such occasion.  Ellis Park racing secretary Dan Bork conceived the idea, envisioning Preview Day as “…being a win-win-win for the two tracks and their horsemen. Hence, the Ellis stakes are designed as launching pads to lucrative stakes at Kentucky Downs’ elite meet that runs Sept. 1, 6, 8, 9 and 13th.   Following a concept popularized by the Breeders’ Cup, the four winners of the Preview stakes are guaranteed a spot in the corresponding race at Kentucky Downs, as well as having their entry fees waived, a savings of $3,000 or $4,000 for the owners, depending on the race” (Ellis Park, 2018). 

I fell in love with Kentucky Downs and their quirky short meet, all turf schedule. The racing to me is phenomenal and as a gambler, it represents an incredible mental challenge.  It comes just after Saratoga and Del Mar wrap up and is some of the finest turf racing in North America, regardless who comes. 

The weather in Henderson, Kentucky looks like it was good Saturday and will be good on Sunday, so expect firm turf.  The turf oval is exactly one mile.  For the classic distance, the gate is at the top of the stretch. I'm primarily focused on Races 6 and 8 with Race 6 the Turf Cup Preview at 1 1/4 Miles for 3 YOs and Up and Race 8  The Mile Preview for 3 YOs and Up.

Let's get after it!

Right off the bat, its clear Trainer Brian Cox has come ready to dominate.  In Race 6, an 8 horse field enters the classic distance route over grass.  Arklow, the 4 YO son of Arch will be the post time favorite and is my chalk for the win. The distance is something he's never raced at but is a cutback from 1 1/2 miles last time out.  He has the best late turn of foot.  Cox with Bridgmohan up are 38%  winners in 32 starts at EIP.  Cox's has great numbers period: 29% with 2nd off 45-180 days off, 28% turf winners in 552 tries, 29% route winners in 773 tries and 24% stakes winner in 229 tries. 

I show myself singling Arklow, but not completely sure I'll be doing that as he's no iron pipe lock for the win.  I have a trio listed just below:  Tizzarunner and Sir Dudley Digges are Classy while Harv Won't Tap represents late speed and value.  Harv Won't Tap is the classic overlay if I'm reading the tea leaves correctly, not for Win but Place or Show.  The 4 YO has solid late speed and appears to be improving for Trainer Stidham. 

Flatlined and Rated R Superstar aren't that different and each has excellent late turns of foot as well.  Rated R Superstar goes over grass for just the second time and I can't see the ML 9-2 justification.  Trainer McPeek's Dirt to Turf  is 10% in 80 tries and he's only a 9% Turf Winner in 214 tries.  Minor prize only.  

In Race 8 at 1 Mile, Mr. Misunderstood does look like very heavy chalk: 9 wins in 12 Turf Starts, 4 wins in 5 starts at 1 Mile, and enters off G2 Wise Dan win beating World Approval who is pretty good at the turf racing thing.  Another Cox/Bridgmohan combo.  Cowboy Culture, a 4 YO Quality Road colt enters also for Cox.  First start of 2018.

Newly gelded Parlor is 8 of 12 in the money over grass and has the race best Timeform US late Pace fig of 124.  He's been a 82-87 Beyer horse until last race out 97 (Also the Wise Dan G2).  Beware regression. Seim Reip  is a classy under performer.  Very big early speed, the only question will be for how long he can carry it.  4 wins in 7 tries at 1 Mile and 6 of 7 in the money at the distance is encouraging. 

I'm not sure what I'm doing yet with the betting.  My initial thoughts working backwards is to single  Mr.Misunderstood in the 8th and slot the 9-2-6-1-8 for a $10 bet and hope for some value in the Place position.  In the 6th, the easy button is a $2  7-6-3-2  box for $24 but I don't like spending $24 on an exacta so I may just go 7-6 OVER 7-6-2 3 for $12. 

Have fun friends.  Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Whitney G1 at Saratoga

Diversify: Photo credit by Susie Raisher with appreciation

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk blog, a Thorofan Handicapper's Corner special edition. Thorofan is is the only national fan organization created specifically to serve the Thoroughbred horse racing fan, so if you aren't a member, please consider joining a community of like minded horse players and fans.

The Turk loves the handicap division, even when it's a hot mess.  With Pavel pointing at the Pacific Classic on August 18th, one week before the Travers Stakes, it's not my inclination to lament who isn't here.  My job as handicapper is to read the tea leaves before me for this race and worry about who will contend at the classic distance three weeks later.  Do you look ahead?  I do, I can't help it, especially with my tickets in hand for Travers Day and Mrs. Turk and I planning our Breeders' Cup trip as well.  I'm hoping three weeks from now will be drier than this weekend should be.

Will speed carry or will the track play fair and give closers a chance?  I like to keep my eye on what the NYRA lists as  "track trends" and I'm leaning towards speed favoring, especially if they get the rain they are expecting Friday and part of Saturday.  I'm going to assume the track is a bit sloppy but speed carrying.   I may adjust that thinking after watching some two turn runs tomorrow and early on the card.  On 7/26 and 7/27 when the track was listed as sloppy and sealed speed was dominant.

Where is the early speed:  Timeform US Early Pace figs in the Whitney are Diversify/6 @127;  Dalmore/3@121; Backyard Heaven/2@117; and no one else is greater than 100.

Let's get after this!




When I handicap a track I expect to not play fairly, I focus strongly on what the pace and race shape should look like. I have a mental picture for this race forming:  Dalmore and Diversify are in front on the first turn followed closely by Mind Your Biscuits, Backyard Heaven and Tapwrit and strung behind them are Good Samaritan, Discreet Lover and McCracken. By the top of the stretch, I'm imagining a pretty clean silk Joel Rosario up on Diversify with Dalmore dropping, Mind your Biscuits slowing slightly, inexperienced Backyard Heaven wanting the slopfest to end and Tapwrit and Good Samaritan moving forward. 

I don't like being the public handicapper predicting chalk, but I think chalk wins convincingly here and I'll make my money singling Win and looking for value in Exacta and Trifecta.

The modestly bred New Yorker Diversify was dominant in the Suburban last time out.  9 wins in 13 fast dirt starts and a >400 Tomlinson for Wet Tracks.  A win over the main track in a state restricted romp in 2018.


The Suburban G2 : 1 1/4 Miles 7 July



Over a fast track, I think I'd be looking at Backyard Heaven to upset Diversify.  His Stephen Foster Handicap is the sort of race you can draw a line through, not as bad as Twitterverse thought but not the results expected after a G2 Alysheba romp.  Only his 6th start, boom or bust, I could easily see him in the far back of the pack or on the edges of the exotics. 


The Stephen Foster Handicap G1; 1 1/8 miles 16 June



 It's hard to be negative in any way over Mind Your Biscuits last race out in the Met Mile.   The 5 YO is going two turns for just the first time and I tip my hat to Trainer Chad Summers for that.  He clearly looms and I think the track should aid him.  He has not been good at Saratoga at shorter distances hes more suited for, so is this just a dice toss?  Possibly.  I'll be covering him in Place and Show with some longer prices and won't be upset if he drops back. 

The Met Mile G1:  9 June



Looking at prices that could surprise for Place or Show, I like Good Samaritan.  Mott's runner will be coming fast at the end of this race and as long as he has an open path he could easily be flying at the end with lots of speed to run at. 


New Orleans H. G2; 1 1/8 Miles 24 March




With the handicap out of the way, it's a bit early but lets start thinking about the bet. 

A $2 Exacta with 6 (Diversify) OVER 1 and 7 (Tapwrit and Good Samaritan) for $4 bucks is my initial thought.  It's not sexy, but these sort of low cost bets are what can really make your day and meet.  If I'm looking at a Trifecta, a $2 bet of 6 OVER 1-4-7-2 (Tapwrit, Biscuits, Backyard and Good Samaritan) over 1-4-7-2-3 (Add Dalmore) for $32 bucks gets my early nod. 

Have fun with it friends!

Turk Out