The Turk absolutely loves the quirky turf only track in Franklin, Kentucky, Kentucky Downs. Quite frankly the only thing I don't like about this boutique meet is how short it is, as I'm always left wanting for more. I'll be playing at least Race 7 (One Dreamer 250K, For F&M 3 YO and Up that haven't won a sweepstakes in 2018 and Race 8, The Tourist Mile 750K for 3 YO and Up, which I'm blogging the details of today.
Are you familiar with Kentucky Downs? The video below gives you a feel for the Euro flavor sweeping first turn and the tighter second turn. As well, last year's Tourist Mile is below for familiarization. The only horse running back in the Tourist Mile is 5 YO Bandar. Master Merion, a 4 Yo Quality Road gelding trained by Wesley Ward has a win in his only start here while Mr. Cub is 1 win in 2 starts here, a 125K ALW last year at 1 mile on good turf where he pressed the pace all the way before shaking clear as a 4-1 carrying 118# (125# today).
2017 Kentucky Downs Tourist Mile; For 3 YOs and Up; Turf listed as Good
I went through quite a bit of analysis that was originally developed by Dick Downey of the Downey Profile. You'll find Dick's Twitter feed here.
You find entries, scratches and changes and track condition here. The weather looks right now to be wet and I would suspect the track will not be firm. Let's get after it!
UPDATE 3:00 PM ET: SCRATCH 2 Master Merion. Turf FIRM.
Mr. Misunderstood is having a wonderful turf career: 11 of 13 in the money over grass with 10 wins, setting his best 101 speed rating in the Grade 1 Makers Mark Mile at Kee. This is a class drop for him, even from his second to last time out win in the Grade 2 Wise Dan at CD in June and his win in the Ellis Park Preview Mile for Kentucky Downs 26 days ago.
In general you'll note the Turk's Fair Line doesn't show much separation; 72.63% chance my top four wins. This excites me thinking about the Will Pays on Exacta betting for multiple value combinations.
Mr. Cub is 8 of 14 lifetime in the money over turf, 3 of 3 lifetime at the distance and has a one mile win pressing the pace over good grass a year ago. The 4 YO Artie Schiller gelding runs back on a 3 week layoff after a dull effort in Lure 100K, 1 1/16 Miles over good turf at SAR.
The running line calls his lost momentum a bobble. It looked to me like a bobble or he just lost footing on his hard inside line, but whatever the horse was in front on a soft pace and at the top of the stretch dropped back to last quickly.
Bound for Nowhere, talk about a class drop, from a 6F good turf race at Ascot to Franklin! He ran a big race in field of 12.
118 Early US Timeform pace. Distance increase, stretching out from his comfort zone of 5-6 F which makes some sense as the 4 Yo son of The Factor. Julio Garcia is back up for Wesley Ward, and the combo are 41% winners on 86 starts over past year all tracks. Here they win the Shakertown Stakes G2 at KEE, 5 1/2 Furlongs over soft footing. Watch him explode in the straight.
Ken and Sarah Ramsey's Camelot Kitten has a very good late turn of foot with a 113 late Timeform pace fig. 1 win in last 9 starts, a fake dirt Turfway Park win in the Kentucky Cup Classic 100K. 4 wide in the last turn and his closing speed on full display. I don't like the lack of winning, and he hasn't even been in the money but the one time in last 9 races
Krampus cuts back in distance while increasing in class. He won last time out at 1 1/8th pressing the pace with an 89 Beyer over firm turf in a 62K OC N2X. The 4 Yo gelded son of Shakespeare has 4 wins and is in the money 6 out of 8 starts over grass.
Master Merion, a gelded 4 Yo Quality Road ( a Turk favorite runner and a damn fine sire) is 10 of 11 in the money over grass and 4 of 5 in the money at the distance with a win at Kentucky Downs in one start. He's also first time back from Ascot for Wesley Ward but didn't do as well as Bound for Nowhere. Last turf win was a Breeders' Cup Weekend undercard race, Let It Ride Stakes 79K at Del Mar at 1 Mile over firm turf. I may have him too low and is a live threat at least for Place and Show.
Finally Great Wide Open (Ire) has one win in last 11, 4 wins in 24 turf starts and the 6 YO comes in on a 61-180 day break (June 23). Big early Timeform Pace of 124. Last few running lines: "....drifted...faltered late...no response...weakened late....game and faded.." The "game" was his last win, 1 mile 80K OC on turf at FG. Eh.
I tossed Bandar from contention at my own peril
I'm not sure what I'm doing yet with this one. I'm thinking about $8-10 of Exactas and $4 of Win Bets defensively bet. I want to get a better feel for the surface and the Will Pays before committing.
Have Fun, Turk Out!
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