Anatomy of a Bet: The H. Allen Jerkens at Saratoga

Promises Fulfilled: Photo Horse Racing Nation @HR_Nation

Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk, Post Race Edition.

As I've been telling my readers, I'm a judicious bettor.  I'm a prolific handicapper, but the compulsion to bet doesn't exist in me.  I handicapped Races 6-12 at Saratoga today and only played a Pick 3 and one vertical bet, The H. Allen Jerkens.

I spent some pretty solid time analyzing this race, especially a breakdown of video on all the contenders and some of the late speed.  You'll find that blog post here.  

I swung for the fences on my primary bet.  In a rare WIN-PLACE bet I wagered $10 for $20 total on the turf to dirt switchover for Team Zayat/Pletcher and J. Velazquez, Gidu (Ire).  A $2 Win bet would have paid $21.60 and my $10 Win Bet would have paid $108.  I liked the pre race work on the dirt, especially the 4F 1st of 60 :47 3/5ths.  I don't mind taking a swing like that and missing.  I only need to hit one out of 5 to break even.

My defensive position was an Exacta.  I had determined to single the likely winner, Promises Fulfilled.  I really believed Engage or Firenze Fire would finish in Place and the bet would pay little.  I noted the Will Pays (on $2 Bet) just before Post Time:

#1 Promised Fulfilled with

• #2 Telekinesis    $48
• #3 Engage   $20
• #5 Seven Trumpets $70
• #6 Gidu (Ire) $74
• #7 Still Having Fun  $42
• #8  Firenze Fire $16

#4 Gemeaminit and #9 Funny Duck I tossed and  didn't even consider them.  

With the likely winning bet paying between $16 and $20 I limited my defensive bet to $8.

$2 Exacta #1 OVER 2,5,6,7 for $8  excluding #3 Engage and #8 Firenze Fire.  I wanted value in this defensive bet as I was wagering $28 total dollars and wanted to at least cover the risky Win Place Bet on Gidu (Ire).  I could have wagered $12 and included Engage and Firenze Fire but I just don't think that's smart money management (although I'm guilty of it at times)

I said Pre Race that Seven Trumpets had a solid 109 Late Pace Timeform and would be moving forward at the end.  I also showed some nice racing by Seven Trumpets late in the Dwyer, highlighting the exceptionally savvy riding of Robbie Albarado.  It was that work that paid off, putting the 32-1 win odds shot in the place spot and winning $82 on an $8 ticket.  

You can find the full DRF Race Chart at this link.

I've said it for years and I'll continue to say it:  You don't need to bet every race.  Do your homework, bet when you feel like you have a knowledge edge.

Thanks for reading.

Turk Out!