Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog, nearly 10 full years and over 630 blog post offers to a reading public that never asked for such dreadful writing.
I'll be honest, I’m not sure The Turk, late in our 9th year of blogging and with over 600 blog posts, has ever blogged Ellis Park Racing. The Turk has zero bias against the good people of Ellis Park and their fine track, I'm just not sure I ever found the occasion to handicap and gamble there.
Sunday's Kentucky Downs Preview Day gives me just such occasion. Ellis Park racing secretary Dan Bork conceived the idea, envisioning Preview Day as “…being a win-win-win for the two tracks and their horsemen. Hence, the Ellis stakes are designed as launching pads to lucrative stakes at Kentucky Downs’ elite meet that runs Sept. 1, 6, 8, 9 and 13th. Following a concept popularized by the Breeders’ Cup, the four winners of the Preview stakes are guaranteed a spot in the corresponding race at Kentucky Downs, as well as having their entry fees waived, a savings of $3,000 or $4,000 for the owners, depending on the race” (Ellis Park, 2018).
I fell in love with Kentucky Downs and their quirky short meet, all turf schedule. The racing to me is phenomenal and as a gambler, it represents an incredible mental challenge. It comes just after Saratoga and Del Mar wrap up and is some of the finest turf racing in North America, regardless who comes.
The weather in Henderson, Kentucky looks like it was good Saturday and will be good on Sunday, so expect firm turf. The turf oval is exactly one mile. For the classic distance, the gate is at the top of the stretch. I'm primarily focused on Races 6 and 8 with Race 6 the Turf Cup Preview at 1 1/4 Miles for 3 YOs and Up and Race 8 The Mile Preview for 3 YOs and Up.
Let's get after it!
Right off the bat, its clear Trainer Brian Cox has come ready to dominate. In Race 6, an 8 horse field enters the classic distance route over grass. Arklow, the 4 YO son of Arch will be the post time favorite and is my chalk for the win. The distance is something he's never raced at but is a cutback from 1 1/2 miles last time out. He has the best late turn of foot. Cox with Bridgmohan up are 38% winners in 32 starts at EIP. Cox's has great numbers period: 29% with 2nd off 45-180 days off, 28% turf winners in 552 tries, 29% route winners in 773 tries and 24% stakes winner in 229 tries.
I show myself singling Arklow, but not completely sure I'll be doing that as he's no iron pipe lock for the win. I have a trio listed just below: Tizzarunner and Sir Dudley Digges are Classy while Harv Won't Tap represents late speed and value. Harv Won't Tap is the classic overlay if I'm reading the tea leaves correctly, not for Win but Place or Show. The 4 YO has solid late speed and appears to be improving for Trainer Stidham.
I show myself singling Arklow, but not completely sure I'll be doing that as he's no iron pipe lock for the win. I have a trio listed just below: Tizzarunner and Sir Dudley Digges are Classy while Harv Won't Tap represents late speed and value. Harv Won't Tap is the classic overlay if I'm reading the tea leaves correctly, not for Win but Place or Show. The 4 YO has solid late speed and appears to be improving for Trainer Stidham.
Flatlined and Rated R Superstar aren't that different and each has excellent late turns of foot as well. Rated R Superstar goes over grass for just the second time and I can't see the ML 9-2 justification. Trainer McPeek's Dirt to Turf is 10% in 80 tries and he's only a 9% Turf Winner in 214 tries. Minor prize only.
In Race 8 at 1 Mile, Mr. Misunderstood does look like very heavy chalk: 9 wins in 12 Turf Starts, 4 wins in 5 starts at 1 Mile, and enters off G2 Wise Dan win beating World Approval who is pretty good at the turf racing thing. Another Cox/Bridgmohan combo. Cowboy Culture, a 4 YO Quality Road colt enters also for Cox. First start of 2018.
Newly gelded Parlor is 8 of 12 in the money over grass and has the race best Timeform US late Pace fig of 124. He's been a 82-87 Beyer horse until last race out 97 (Also the Wise Dan G2). Beware regression. Seim Reip is a classy under performer. Very big early speed, the only question will be for how long he can carry it. 4 wins in 7 tries at 1 Mile and 6 of 7 in the money at the distance is encouraging.
I'm not sure what I'm doing yet with the betting. My initial thoughts working backwards is to single Mr.Misunderstood in the 8th and slot the 9-2-6-1-8 for a $10 bet and hope for some value in the Place position. In the 6th, the easy button is a $2 7-6-3-2 box for $24 but I don't like spending $24 on an exacta so I may just go 7-6 OVER 7-6-2 3 for $12.
Have fun friends. Turk Out!
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