I hope everyone had a good Thanksgiving. The Turk, along with little Turk and the whole Turk brood keep a low profile on Turk-ey day, but we feel pretty safe now that the feather frenzy is over.
I'm looking to handicap and enjoy 4 particular races today.
Race 3 at the Big A is The True Affair, a 7F jaunt around cold dirt for Fillies 2 YO.
The ML favorite is at 3-1, a Kiaran McLaughlin trained, Garcia ridden, West Point Tbreds owned Justwhistledixie. This is a tough race to call and I'm predicting a good payout for the winner as well as some insight into these baby girls, which is why we are paying atention instead of lined up like lemmings outside a box store.
Race 11 at CD is the 1 1/8 mile, G2, The Clark Handicap, being held for the 135th time. There are some horses as a horse fan I really enjoy and this is quite a treat to get this lineup. I most likely won't be betting because I think, but also want, Commentator, the ML 1-1 favorite, to run away with it. The Turk loves Commentator, and that's why I'm smart enough to not get too carried away with betting this one. I will say, if you can make make an arguement against Commetator, the money will be there. That will be my approach. I really liked Einstein early this year, unraced since the Arlington Mile way back in early August.
The last tw races for me today will both be at HOL. Race 6 is The Miesque, a 1 mile G3 for 2 YO Fillies on Turf. Kiaran McLaughlin again has the ML favorite, 5-2 Habaya, running for Shadwell Farms today with R. Migliore up. I wonder what's like to have a barn full of potential like Kiaran seems to have had the past few?
And finaly, Race 8 at Hollywood, The Citation Handicap, G1, 1 1/16 miles raced across Turf for 3YO and up. ML favorite is Whatsthescript coming off a 99 Beyer in the Breeder's Cup Mile. I'm going to be studying this one closely as I think it will be a great race with a good payout most likely.
The Turk is settling in for a little work and a little pleasure. I appreciated the kind notes of Thanksgiving blessings from strangers but readers of the Turk. I hope you all enjoy some good leftovers and some great races.
Friday, November 28, 2008
Saturday, November 22, 2008
The Nomination Selections: November 22, 2008
The Turk has a massive non-horse work load today, so forgive my brevity. Forgive the fact I do anything to do besides following the horses too.
Woodbine Race 6: The Kennedy Road, G3. 6f run on WO version of faux dirt.
I see three strong possibilities to win this race: From the 6 spot is Legal Move. The 4 YO is right about Grade 3 quality, perhaps a bit less. 6F seems to be a comfortable distance to him and he's won 9 times out of 16 races at WO, and he's 7 for 10 from the distance with a 99 high Beyer. ML had him at 3.5-1 and while not the chalk, he's close and will attract money.
From the 8 spot is Storm Treasure, who is the ML chalk at 5-2. He's returning to work after finishing third in the Breeder's Cup Turf Sprint. I think money will flow heavy to him and I'm hoping the commotion of the trip from SA to CD and now the cold of Woodbine gets to him.
And in the 9 spot, Just Rushing. The horse is a ML 4-1, who has had a series of good works, mostly consistent Beyers and 8 wins at WO, including a 40% win rate and a 99 high Beyer on the fake dirt.
My close and maybe in the exotic pool is the 5 horse, The Great Caruso and the 4 horse, Hosta Rica.
I like Legal Move to win. I'm betting if >7-2. I plan on taking a $2 flyer on the 7 horse, Main Executive. At a ML 12-1, I'm looking for at least >9-1 at post time. The horse did some work from the gate and is adding blinkers for the first time. He's capable of a 98 Beyer on this course at this distance.
I'm sticking to $4 bucks on this race and I might string an exacta together at post time as well that includes Legal Move.
And Race 9 at Churchill Downs, The River City Handicap, G3. 1 1/8 miles run over Ol' Kentucky turf for 3 YO and up.
I have two strong contenders for this race. In the 5 spot is Karelian. My knock on him is this maybe a 1/16 to long, but we'll see. He's 2 for 2 on CD turf and he brings alot of class to this race. He's a ML 5-1.
From the 11 spot is Thorn Song who will enter as the heavy ML chalk at 6-5. Forgetting the Breeder's Cup and this horse has been nothing but three digit Beyer's since since June. He's 4 for 5 on CD turf but again the distance has been a stumbling block.
I really like the 9 horse, Canela, who is a ML 8-1. The horse is 4-4 on CD turf, 4 for 5 at the distance and has J. Leparoux and his gaudy 29% winning record at CD up.
While I don't see him winning, from the 1 post, Yate's Black Cat is a ML 5-1 and a very consistent mid 90's Beyer. This horse is Dale Roman's other entry along with Thorn Song, but I don't see him as a rabbit but more as a stretch run competitor.
It's a big field and I think money will flow to the two horses I think are favorites, but especially Thorn Song. I'm looking for Canela if at least >7-1 to win. I like Karelian if >5-1 and I think I'll bet no more then 6 bucks with the last two bucks on an exacta I throw together, most likely with Thorn Song and a longer odds challenger.
As always, watch the tote. Only the foolish bet early.
Woodbine Race 6: The Kennedy Road, G3. 6f run on WO version of faux dirt.
I see three strong possibilities to win this race: From the 6 spot is Legal Move. The 4 YO is right about Grade 3 quality, perhaps a bit less. 6F seems to be a comfortable distance to him and he's won 9 times out of 16 races at WO, and he's 7 for 10 from the distance with a 99 high Beyer. ML had him at 3.5-1 and while not the chalk, he's close and will attract money.
From the 8 spot is Storm Treasure, who is the ML chalk at 5-2. He's returning to work after finishing third in the Breeder's Cup Turf Sprint. I think money will flow heavy to him and I'm hoping the commotion of the trip from SA to CD and now the cold of Woodbine gets to him.
And in the 9 spot, Just Rushing. The horse is a ML 4-1, who has had a series of good works, mostly consistent Beyers and 8 wins at WO, including a 40% win rate and a 99 high Beyer on the fake dirt.
My close and maybe in the exotic pool is the 5 horse, The Great Caruso and the 4 horse, Hosta Rica.
I like Legal Move to win. I'm betting if >7-2. I plan on taking a $2 flyer on the 7 horse, Main Executive. At a ML 12-1, I'm looking for at least >9-1 at post time. The horse did some work from the gate and is adding blinkers for the first time. He's capable of a 98 Beyer on this course at this distance.
I'm sticking to $4 bucks on this race and I might string an exacta together at post time as well that includes Legal Move.
And Race 9 at Churchill Downs, The River City Handicap, G3. 1 1/8 miles run over Ol' Kentucky turf for 3 YO and up.
I have two strong contenders for this race. In the 5 spot is Karelian. My knock on him is this maybe a 1/16 to long, but we'll see. He's 2 for 2 on CD turf and he brings alot of class to this race. He's a ML 5-1.
From the 11 spot is Thorn Song who will enter as the heavy ML chalk at 6-5. Forgetting the Breeder's Cup and this horse has been nothing but three digit Beyer's since since June. He's 4 for 5 on CD turf but again the distance has been a stumbling block.
I really like the 9 horse, Canela, who is a ML 8-1. The horse is 4-4 on CD turf, 4 for 5 at the distance and has J. Leparoux and his gaudy 29% winning record at CD up.
While I don't see him winning, from the 1 post, Yate's Black Cat is a ML 5-1 and a very consistent mid 90's Beyer. This horse is Dale Roman's other entry along with Thorn Song, but I don't see him as a rabbit but more as a stretch run competitor.
It's a big field and I think money will flow to the two horses I think are favorites, but especially Thorn Song. I'm looking for Canela if at least >7-1 to win. I like Karelian if >5-1 and I think I'll bet no more then 6 bucks with the last two bucks on an exacta I throw together, most likely with Thorn Song and a longer odds challenger.
As always, watch the tote. Only the foolish bet early.
Friday, November 21, 2008
The Nominations Are In: November 21, 2008
It's a good time of the year for the Turk. Thanksgiving is only six days away, and some great stakes races unfold over the next eight days. Tomorrow I'll be handicapping two in depth at two different tracks.
At Woodbine Race 6, The Kennedy Road, G3, 6f raced over WO version of faux dirt for 3 YO and Up. The ML chalk is Storm Treasure at 5-2. Storm Treasure is coming off a 97 Beyer effort in the Breeder's Cup Turf Sprint, finishing third behind Desert Code and Diabolical. I think there are a few horses that could win this race that will go off at least 4-1. That's what we like.
I'll then turn my attention to Race 9 at Churchill Downs, The River City Handicap, G3, raced 1 1/8 miles on genuine Kentucky turf for 3 YO and up. ML 6-5 Thorn Song, coming off a weak 9th in the Breeder's Cup Mile looks to bounce back for trainer Dale Romans with Robbie Albarado up. The 5 YO will attract money and a betting opportunity should open up if he falters.
The Turk is going to stay busy during the next week or so. On Sunday the Turk and the Little Turk will be handicapping at WO The Bessarbian Stakes at 7f for 3 YO and up and also Hollywood Park, The Hollywood Prevue Stakes, 7f for 2 YO.
Starting on Thanksgiving and running through Sunday, there will be 9 stake races, including the G1 Cigar Mile, the G1 Citation Handicap, G2 Clark Handicap and G2 Demoiselle that I'll be watching and handicapping. This is like Christmas come early, or better yet, Turk-ey Day. Gobble Gobble....
At Woodbine Race 6, The Kennedy Road, G3, 6f raced over WO version of faux dirt for 3 YO and Up. The ML chalk is Storm Treasure at 5-2. Storm Treasure is coming off a 97 Beyer effort in the Breeder's Cup Turf Sprint, finishing third behind Desert Code and Diabolical. I think there are a few horses that could win this race that will go off at least 4-1. That's what we like.
I'll then turn my attention to Race 9 at Churchill Downs, The River City Handicap, G3, raced 1 1/8 miles on genuine Kentucky turf for 3 YO and up. ML 6-5 Thorn Song, coming off a weak 9th in the Breeder's Cup Mile looks to bounce back for trainer Dale Romans with Robbie Albarado up. The 5 YO will attract money and a betting opportunity should open up if he falters.
The Turk is going to stay busy during the next week or so. On Sunday the Turk and the Little Turk will be handicapping at WO The Bessarbian Stakes at 7f for 3 YO and up and also Hollywood Park, The Hollywood Prevue Stakes, 7f for 2 YO.
Starting on Thanksgiving and running through Sunday, there will be 9 stake races, including the G1 Cigar Mile, the G1 Citation Handicap, G2 Clark Handicap and G2 Demoiselle that I'll be watching and handicapping. This is like Christmas come early, or better yet, Turk-ey Day. Gobble Gobble....
Sunday, November 16, 2008
Post Race Analysis: November 16, 2008
Well, sometimes you are right, and sometimes you are wrong, and sometimes the results are a murky grey of right and wrong.
In the Coronation Futurity today at WO, the Turk thought the chalk was beatable and predicted a nice win payout and exacta payout, even with just a six horse field.
Pre-race I discounted the eventual winner Active Duty ($25 dollar win bet), as well as the horse (Gallant- finished fourth) that set the pace most of the way.
The two horses I keyed on, Cool Diablo (someone wake him up) and Khabibulin (who found a great turn of foot on the stretch and just needs a better start) didn't show the speed I expected, and the very heavy chalk, El Brujo, broke well, stalked but couldn't finish in front.
I'm disappointed as I smelled upset and big pay-out, but honestly, didn't see Active Duty winning this race, even in hindsight.
The only upside is the Turk flapped his blogging gums too long and too close to the start of the race and when I arrived back at Twin Spires I didn't allow enough time to place the bet. No money lost.
In the Coronation Futurity today at WO, the Turk thought the chalk was beatable and predicted a nice win payout and exacta payout, even with just a six horse field.
Pre-race I discounted the eventual winner Active Duty ($25 dollar win bet), as well as the horse (Gallant- finished fourth) that set the pace most of the way.
The two horses I keyed on, Cool Diablo (someone wake him up) and Khabibulin (who found a great turn of foot on the stretch and just needs a better start) didn't show the speed I expected, and the very heavy chalk, El Brujo, broke well, stalked but couldn't finish in front.
I'm disappointed as I smelled upset and big pay-out, but honestly, didn't see Active Duty winning this race, even in hindsight.
The only upside is the Turk flapped his blogging gums too long and too close to the start of the race and when I arrived back at Twin Spires I didn't allow enough time to place the bet. No money lost.
The Nomination Is In: November 16, 2008
Baby it's cold outside. I'm 70 miles from Woodbine, and the air is filled with freezing rain and inclement intentions. Still, I wish I was there today, but the Turk is watching the 2 inch video feed instead and lying with the warmth of my weimaraner and a blazing fire. In other words, I'm roughing it.
Today's race I'm handicapping is Race 6 at WO, The Coronation Futurity, for 2 YO's foaled in Canada, raced 1 1/8 miles across Woodbine's version of faux dirt.
The heavy ML favorite is El Brujo. The horse, and all the entrants, has never raced to this distance. El Brujo is coming off a n1X win on October 10th and he owns the best Beyer of the entrants at 79 and is the model of consistant Beyer's over four races since July.
Four of the horses coming into this race were last seen on yielding WO turf turning in awful performances. I'm going to throw those results out the window.
I've dismissed Gallant from the 5 post as being too slow and not very seasoned. I'm dismissin the 4-1 Active Duty as well from the 6 post.
I'm looking at Khabibulin at ML 8-1. His key race was 7f in 1:22.25. The Chalk's best 7f was 1:23.52. They both worked 5f on November 9th, seperated by 1/5 of a second. I'm on the hunt for a value exacta.
I also like the 1 horse, Cool Diablo. A similar 5f work was 3/5's faster the chalk. His last race was a mile over dirt and he won by 8 lengths.
Hmmmmmm.....
I could see a good payout winner and exacta if El Brujo falters.
I'm toying with a 4-1 box exacta (Khabibulin/Cool Diablo) or a 4-1-2 Straight Tri.
Today's race I'm handicapping is Race 6 at WO, The Coronation Futurity, for 2 YO's foaled in Canada, raced 1 1/8 miles across Woodbine's version of faux dirt.
The heavy ML favorite is El Brujo. The horse, and all the entrants, has never raced to this distance. El Brujo is coming off a n1X win on October 10th and he owns the best Beyer of the entrants at 79 and is the model of consistant Beyer's over four races since July.
Four of the horses coming into this race were last seen on yielding WO turf turning in awful performances. I'm going to throw those results out the window.
I've dismissed Gallant from the 5 post as being too slow and not very seasoned. I'm dismissin the 4-1 Active Duty as well from the 6 post.
I'm looking at Khabibulin at ML 8-1. His key race was 7f in 1:22.25. The Chalk's best 7f was 1:23.52. They both worked 5f on November 9th, seperated by 1/5 of a second. I'm on the hunt for a value exacta.
I also like the 1 horse, Cool Diablo. A similar 5f work was 3/5's faster the chalk. His last race was a mile over dirt and he won by 8 lengths.
Hmmmmmm.....
I could see a good payout winner and exacta if El Brujo falters.
I'm toying with a 4-1 box exacta (Khabibulin/Cool Diablo) or a 4-1-2 Straight Tri.
Saturday, November 15, 2008
Post Race Analysis: November 15, 2008
Race 8 at the Big A, the 1 1/8 G3 Stuyvesant Handicap was raced across genuine NYS dirt turned to pure slop. Helsinki and Phil the Power scratched and exercised good sense. My choice, Temporary Saint, went to the front and only surrendered the lead at the end of the stretch run. The Little Turk's eye for horse flesh was rewarded again today as he cashed tickets on Dry Martini who paid $10.20 to win. Stud Muffin, whom I dismissed as a pre-race contender, had a good run to take Place. To those who read the Blood Horse, there was a great article on Trainer David Jacobson (who claimed Temporary Saint earlier this year) in the issue that arrived today.
Race 9 at CD, the 1 1/8 turf stakes G3, Cardinal, was a race I watched the tote board closely on up until post. Pre-race I liked Callwood Dancer, but the prerace chalk went off at paltry odds and I decided to look in other places. I settled on a Kent Desormeaux mount, Indescribable. I liked Lady Digby, but her odds were unacceptable as well, going off as the bettors second choice. I'd call this bet a flyer, an informed guess.
The Little Turk liked Long Approach. I placed a straight exacta bet down on the 10-3, Indescribable and Long Approach and was rewarded with a $15.40 win bet and a $199 exacta take.
One of those good, semi-unexpected days.
I did take sometime looking at WO Race 8, the 7f Glorious Song. I thought the chalk, Selva, would win and she did. No bet, but a horse to watch is just as good.
For those keeping track, Big Turk is now up $157.64 in operating income in this current Breeders Cup to Breeders Cup cycle. I bought a month's worth of PP's today from DRF, but I hit big on the win and exacta.
My current expenses are at $67.45 and earnings are now $225.09. The two dollar bettor can scratch out good days.
Race 9 at CD, the 1 1/8 turf stakes G3, Cardinal, was a race I watched the tote board closely on up until post. Pre-race I liked Callwood Dancer, but the prerace chalk went off at paltry odds and I decided to look in other places. I settled on a Kent Desormeaux mount, Indescribable. I liked Lady Digby, but her odds were unacceptable as well, going off as the bettors second choice. I'd call this bet a flyer, an informed guess.
The Little Turk liked Long Approach. I placed a straight exacta bet down on the 10-3, Indescribable and Long Approach and was rewarded with a $15.40 win bet and a $199 exacta take.
One of those good, semi-unexpected days.
I did take sometime looking at WO Race 8, the 7f Glorious Song. I thought the chalk, Selva, would win and she did. No bet, but a horse to watch is just as good.
For those keeping track, Big Turk is now up $157.64 in operating income in this current Breeders Cup to Breeders Cup cycle. I bought a month's worth of PP's today from DRF, but I hit big on the win and exacta.
My current expenses are at $67.45 and earnings are now $225.09. The two dollar bettor can scratch out good days.
The Nominations Are In: November 15, 2008
The Turk is looking at two races today at two different tracks.
At Aqueduct, Race 8 is The Stuyvesant, 1 1/8 miles on dirt for 3 YO and Up.
The ML Chalk at 5-2 is Solar Flare (ARG), a Larry Jones trained Fox Hill Farms 4 YO. The horse didn't fare well up in class, but bounced back to win a n4x with a 98 Beyer 3 weeks ago. I'll be looking for >3-1 or I'll be thinking exotic with him in it.
At 6-1, I like Temporary Saint, breaking from the 7 spot. The horse has two low 100 Beyer's and an upper 90 Beyer since mid September. The 5 YO grey/roan won a G3 at this distance at Aqueduct with a 105 Beyer in April 2008.
At 12-1 is Helsinki, racing for the first time in 51 Weeks. The horse has six works at Belmont since early October and may be worth a flyer at these odds.
The ML Place Horse at 7-2 is Brilliant Son. The horse hasn't won in a year, has 3 wins in 14 starts lifetime and the works for this 5 YO McLaughlin trainee don't seem that impressive, except for possibly a lone 47 and 3/5 at 4f in early October. I hope money flows to him, but I won't be (aka The Turk Kiss of Death).
So....I think the ML has this one right. I like Solar Flare, but only a win bet if >3-1. Instead I'll look to couple Solar Flare in a Tri and I may take a flyer on one of the horses I like for odds >8-1.
Little Turk is pleased to look for value and has an eye on Dry Martini, especially if >8-1.
Race 8 at CD, The Cardinal Handicap, G3, 1 1/8 on the turf for F&M, 3YO and up.
At ML 4-1, I like Lady Digby. Lightly raced since the summer, but working consistently since early October. A 30% winner on Turf, I'm looking for a Beyer approaching 97 today.
The ML Chalk is is Callwood Dancer (IRE). A 36% winner on Turf and a Turf Beyer of 100, the 4 Yo was formidable in the G1 EP Taylor at WO in early October giving Folk Opera all she could handle. This horse will be in the money today, and I'm thinking the odds could fall slightly.
Meribel at 9-2 and Ciao at 6-1 will look to fill out the finishers.
I'm going to watch the tote board and the track bias as the day goes on, especially as the weather is turning quickly in NY, and we'll see.
Little Turk cares nothing for the tote board and looks for Leparoux to stay hot and picks 6-1 Long Approach.
Woodbine has 2 nice 2 YO races this weekend, the Glorious Song today at 7f for fillies and tomorrow's Coronation Futurity at 9f for Canadian Bred. I'll be paying my attention to WO all weekend and if i get time later, will share my thoughts on both of these races.
At Aqueduct, Race 8 is The Stuyvesant, 1 1/8 miles on dirt for 3 YO and Up.
The ML Chalk at 5-2 is Solar Flare (ARG), a Larry Jones trained Fox Hill Farms 4 YO. The horse didn't fare well up in class, but bounced back to win a n4x with a 98 Beyer 3 weeks ago. I'll be looking for >3-1 or I'll be thinking exotic with him in it.
At 6-1, I like Temporary Saint, breaking from the 7 spot. The horse has two low 100 Beyer's and an upper 90 Beyer since mid September. The 5 YO grey/roan won a G3 at this distance at Aqueduct with a 105 Beyer in April 2008.
At 12-1 is Helsinki, racing for the first time in 51 Weeks. The horse has six works at Belmont since early October and may be worth a flyer at these odds.
The ML Place Horse at 7-2 is Brilliant Son. The horse hasn't won in a year, has 3 wins in 14 starts lifetime and the works for this 5 YO McLaughlin trainee don't seem that impressive, except for possibly a lone 47 and 3/5 at 4f in early October. I hope money flows to him, but I won't be (aka The Turk Kiss of Death).
So....I think the ML has this one right. I like Solar Flare, but only a win bet if >3-1. Instead I'll look to couple Solar Flare in a Tri and I may take a flyer on one of the horses I like for odds >8-1.
Little Turk is pleased to look for value and has an eye on Dry Martini, especially if >8-1.
Race 8 at CD, The Cardinal Handicap, G3, 1 1/8 on the turf for F&M, 3YO and up.
At ML 4-1, I like Lady Digby. Lightly raced since the summer, but working consistently since early October. A 30% winner on Turf, I'm looking for a Beyer approaching 97 today.
The ML Chalk is is Callwood Dancer (IRE). A 36% winner on Turf and a Turf Beyer of 100, the 4 Yo was formidable in the G1 EP Taylor at WO in early October giving Folk Opera all she could handle. This horse will be in the money today, and I'm thinking the odds could fall slightly.
Meribel at 9-2 and Ciao at 6-1 will look to fill out the finishers.
I'm going to watch the tote board and the track bias as the day goes on, especially as the weather is turning quickly in NY, and we'll see.
Little Turk cares nothing for the tote board and looks for Leparoux to stay hot and picks 6-1 Long Approach.
Woodbine has 2 nice 2 YO races this weekend, the Glorious Song today at 7f for fillies and tomorrow's Coronation Futurity at 9f for Canadian Bred. I'll be paying my attention to WO all weekend and if i get time later, will share my thoughts on both of these races.
Thursday, November 13, 2008
When Life Gets in the Way
If I am like many of you, we live in a world where only a few people in our families get horse racing. Today, my cousin, Shawn Murphy, passed away after a short but brave fight against cancer.
In August, I saw my cousin the one time a year we saw each other, at the family reunion. This year, like the past several years, we spent hours talking horses, as well as our other shared interests like the Civil War and counter culture. A week before the Woodward, I suggested to Sister Turk that we call cousin Shawn and invite him to the Spa to see Curlin run. That's when I learned he was sick, but at the time we had no idea how serious.
We never called cousin Shawn but thought about him during the course of the day. This was his last summer at the Spa and he regretted the rain that plauged the early part of the meet. How could he know he'd never see another meet, but how do any of us?
Shawn leaves behind a loving wife, two beautiful daughters, and a cat. I was the ring bearer in his Wedding, I held his first born on the day she was baptized, and I lost somebody I didn't see often but thought the world of. Rest in Peace Shawn, we'll be talking over the ponies one day again, with Aunt Rosie I imagine.
In August, I saw my cousin the one time a year we saw each other, at the family reunion. This year, like the past several years, we spent hours talking horses, as well as our other shared interests like the Civil War and counter culture. A week before the Woodward, I suggested to Sister Turk that we call cousin Shawn and invite him to the Spa to see Curlin run. That's when I learned he was sick, but at the time we had no idea how serious.
We never called cousin Shawn but thought about him during the course of the day. This was his last summer at the Spa and he regretted the rain that plauged the early part of the meet. How could he know he'd never see another meet, but how do any of us?
Shawn leaves behind a loving wife, two beautiful daughters, and a cat. I was the ring bearer in his Wedding, I held his first born on the day she was baptized, and I lost somebody I didn't see often but thought the world of. Rest in Peace Shawn, we'll be talking over the ponies one day again, with Aunt Rosie I imagine.
Sunday, November 9, 2008
Post Race Analysis: November 9th, 2008
The Turk believes in one overwhelming handicapping goal: Identify what horses can win and which horses can't. Sound simple enough? Don't depend on the track handicapper who sets the Morning Line, too often they are safe bets. Then again, as a handicapper, that's what we want, a segment of the betting public plunking down cash on horses based on what the logical winner will be. We are betting horses, real flesh and blood, and logic only makes up 70% or so of the equation. The other 30% is where the handicapper's art comes into play.
I digress.
In Race 1 at HOL,a 1 1/16 Maiden race for 2 YO Fillies, The ML choice was Black Magic Mama. It made alot of sense. Black Magic Mama was coming off the Breeder's Cup Juvenile Fillies just a few short weeks ago. Her last two races were against some stiff G1 competition. The ML was 8-5 and the bettors sent her off with only a chance of winning 40 cents on their 1 dollar bets. This is the text book definition of a bridgejumper bet.
Pre-race, I thought there were only three legitimate winners in the race, Black Magic Mama, Vikkilee, and Box Office Queen. I didn't get the odds I wanted so I didn't bet. I considered a Trifecta with the three horses, but I would have gotten the second and third place finishers reversed on a straight bet, and the small amount this trifecta bet returned didn't justify boxing the three. I was happy to identify the possible winners and eliminate the also rans.
In Race 5 at WO, a 7f Maiden race for 2 YO's, I identified that I wasn't thrilled with the ML chalk, Airstrike. Pre-Race I liked a 12-1, lightly raced, Patena. Patena had a 5f bullet a week early in 1:00 2/5ths, and had been working regularly since September over the WO surface. The tote board odds dropped significantly just before the race, but I plucked my 2 bucks down and recovered $10.10 for my efforts. The bettors favorite was Red Wine, a $500,000 Distorted Humor colt trained by Steve Asmussen and campaigning in the Stonestreet Stables colors. It was an alluring choice, but the horse has done little in two races and had uninspiring works. It's a bettors dream, a bet magnet who you don't think will win.
My last handicapping adventure of the day was Race 9 at CD, a 1 1/16 Turf race for 3YO's, the GIII Commonwealth Turf Stakes.
The ML Chalk was Seaspeak, and this fine horse was the bettors choice as well. Seaspeak had a gaudy 96 Beyer on turf to hang his tack on, and I didn't think he would get beat. I was wrong. A horse named Nistle's Crunch coming off some mid 80's Beyer's on Turf closed like a freight train after getting stuck in traffic and nipped Seaspeak by 1/2 length. I wish I would have seen this coming, but i didn't. The horse was a 4.5-1 ML and the odds grew larger as the bettors looked elsewhere. A win bet returned a sweet 17.20.
Two weeks into the race year (Breeder's Cup to Breeder's Cup) and I now stand at ($3.40). That includes all expenses including PP's. As I said, I believe this exercise will show that I lose money each year willingly and it's not much different then the tomatoes I plant each year that cost me 10X what I can buy them for when my labor, money and time is factored in. I like horses more then tomatoes, but you get the point.
I digress.
In Race 1 at HOL,a 1 1/16 Maiden race for 2 YO Fillies, The ML choice was Black Magic Mama. It made alot of sense. Black Magic Mama was coming off the Breeder's Cup Juvenile Fillies just a few short weeks ago. Her last two races were against some stiff G1 competition. The ML was 8-5 and the bettors sent her off with only a chance of winning 40 cents on their 1 dollar bets. This is the text book definition of a bridgejumper bet.
Pre-race, I thought there were only three legitimate winners in the race, Black Magic Mama, Vikkilee, and Box Office Queen. I didn't get the odds I wanted so I didn't bet. I considered a Trifecta with the three horses, but I would have gotten the second and third place finishers reversed on a straight bet, and the small amount this trifecta bet returned didn't justify boxing the three. I was happy to identify the possible winners and eliminate the also rans.
In Race 5 at WO, a 7f Maiden race for 2 YO's, I identified that I wasn't thrilled with the ML chalk, Airstrike. Pre-Race I liked a 12-1, lightly raced, Patena. Patena had a 5f bullet a week early in 1:00 2/5ths, and had been working regularly since September over the WO surface. The tote board odds dropped significantly just before the race, but I plucked my 2 bucks down and recovered $10.10 for my efforts. The bettors favorite was Red Wine, a $500,000 Distorted Humor colt trained by Steve Asmussen and campaigning in the Stonestreet Stables colors. It was an alluring choice, but the horse has done little in two races and had uninspiring works. It's a bettors dream, a bet magnet who you don't think will win.
My last handicapping adventure of the day was Race 9 at CD, a 1 1/16 Turf race for 3YO's, the GIII Commonwealth Turf Stakes.
The ML Chalk was Seaspeak, and this fine horse was the bettors choice as well. Seaspeak had a gaudy 96 Beyer on turf to hang his tack on, and I didn't think he would get beat. I was wrong. A horse named Nistle's Crunch coming off some mid 80's Beyer's on Turf closed like a freight train after getting stuck in traffic and nipped Seaspeak by 1/2 length. I wish I would have seen this coming, but i didn't. The horse was a 4.5-1 ML and the odds grew larger as the bettors looked elsewhere. A win bet returned a sweet 17.20.
Two weeks into the race year (Breeder's Cup to Breeder's Cup) and I now stand at ($3.40). That includes all expenses including PP's. As I said, I believe this exercise will show that I lose money each year willingly and it's not much different then the tomatoes I plant each year that cost me 10X what I can buy them for when my labor, money and time is factored in. I like horses more then tomatoes, but you get the point.
The Nominations Are In: November 9th, 2008
The Nominations are in, November 9th, 2008:
The Turk is looking at three different tracks today, and from each I choose a seemingly ho-hum race to try and gleen handicapping gold from the PP.
Without further gum flapping....
HOL Race 1: 1 1/16 Maiden Special Weight, for Maiden Fillies 2 YO, on HOL version of Faux Dirt.
The ML chalk is at 8-5, an O'Neill trained, Garett Gomez ridden horse last seen in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile Fillies, Black Magic Mama. This girl has lost two G1's in a row and now just looks to punch her maiden box. I think heavy money will flow to her, and that should open up some possibilities.
At 2-1 is a Cerin trained, Bejarano ridden filly named Vikkilee, in the 5 spot. If the horse falls >4-1, it will interest me, as will Box Office Queen will if she slips to >6-1. This will be a post time decision.
Race 5 at WO is a 7f Maiden Special Weight , for 2YO.
ML chalk is 5-2 Air Strike, unraced and on lasik today. The horse has worked regularly at WO and has two nice works in a row.
At ML 8-1 from the 10 Spot is Smart Selection, a Reade Baker trainee, again unraced and again trying lasik for the first time. His 5f works are OK.
At ML 6-1 is Red Wine, a Steve Asmussen trainee. With two races under this Distorted Humor's belt, and a $500,000 price tag, expectations are high.
And the Race 9 at CD, the 1 1/16 Turf Race, GIII, The Commonwealth Turf. for 3YO's.
ML chalk is Seaspeak, coming off a 96 Beyer, 1 Mile Turf race at KEE on October 12th.
At 20-1 is a 97 Beyer, 1 1/4 dirt winner Allsarott.
Turk's going to go to Church, meditate on the PP's, and make some selections. I'll reconvene with the Race Charts later today.
The Turk is looking at three different tracks today, and from each I choose a seemingly ho-hum race to try and gleen handicapping gold from the PP.
Without further gum flapping....
HOL Race 1: 1 1/16 Maiden Special Weight, for Maiden Fillies 2 YO, on HOL version of Faux Dirt.
The ML chalk is at 8-5, an O'Neill trained, Garett Gomez ridden horse last seen in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile Fillies, Black Magic Mama. This girl has lost two G1's in a row and now just looks to punch her maiden box. I think heavy money will flow to her, and that should open up some possibilities.
At 2-1 is a Cerin trained, Bejarano ridden filly named Vikkilee, in the 5 spot. If the horse falls >4-1, it will interest me, as will Box Office Queen will if she slips to >6-1. This will be a post time decision.
Race 5 at WO is a 7f Maiden Special Weight , for 2YO.
ML chalk is 5-2 Air Strike, unraced and on lasik today. The horse has worked regularly at WO and has two nice works in a row.
At ML 8-1 from the 10 Spot is Smart Selection, a Reade Baker trainee, again unraced and again trying lasik for the first time. His 5f works are OK.
At ML 6-1 is Red Wine, a Steve Asmussen trainee. With two races under this Distorted Humor's belt, and a $500,000 price tag, expectations are high.
And the Race 9 at CD, the 1 1/16 Turf Race, GIII, The Commonwealth Turf. for 3YO's.
ML chalk is Seaspeak, coming off a 96 Beyer, 1 Mile Turf race at KEE on October 12th.
At 20-1 is a 97 Beyer, 1 1/4 dirt winner Allsarott.
Turk's going to go to Church, meditate on the PP's, and make some selections. I'll reconvene with the Race Charts later today.
Saturday, November 8, 2008
When Life Gets in the Way
The Turk is back. To those of you familiar with The Turk, you'll know that he has a special bond with the man he calls Papa Turk, my dad. Papa Turk ended up in the hospital this week when his heart got a bit wonky. I can laugh about it now, but as I sat in his hospital room this week, the nurse came in a gave him an injection of lasik. I daydreamed of placing a dark circle and a capital L on his door to signify his "first time lasik" condition and consider him as an underlay. Papa Turk is a thoroughbred in every sense of the metaphor. He's a patriot, serving his country for many years in uniform, as well as serving for many weeks at ground zero after 9/11. He's doing well and he has many more trips left with me to Saratoga. Maybe next year we can see a Triple Crown Winner at the midsummer derby.
I'd like to thank the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance for extending an invitation to me to join their crew of outstanding thoroughbred online journalists. What I like the most about the TBA is the diversity of interests and opinions. I'm not worthy to be in the company of many of these authors, but then again, the Turk has a loud Hawaiian Shirt, a red flair pen, a copy of the Form, and a desire to crash the party....Let the Horse's, Handicapping and Hijinks's begin again!
It's been a challenging week. I'm paying attention to Calder today and I'll be back tonight to handicap a few Woodbine races for tomorrow.
I'd like to thank the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance for extending an invitation to me to join their crew of outstanding thoroughbred online journalists. What I like the most about the TBA is the diversity of interests and opinions. I'm not worthy to be in the company of many of these authors, but then again, the Turk has a loud Hawaiian Shirt, a red flair pen, a copy of the Form, and a desire to crash the party....Let the Horse's, Handicapping and Hijinks's begin again!
It's been a challenging week. I'm paying attention to Calder today and I'll be back tonight to handicap a few Woodbine races for tomorrow.
Saturday, November 1, 2008
Post Race Analysis: November 1, 2008
Not a bad day of identifying the winners in four races that I handicapped. Unfortunately, no real good underlays popped out of the PP's and onto the track.
Race 3 at HOL, I picked Pamona Ball to win and she did. The bettors agreed and sent her off at 1.90. I liked Pamona Ball and Magic Roberta in an exacta (Trifector wasn't offered), and I thought Toro Bonito would take show. It was Pamona Ball and Toro Bonito at the wire. I didn't like the Tote Board and I placed no money, made easier by the stupid internet waging silliness.
At WO in race 6, I said I liked Retractable to beat the heavy chalk, High Mist. Retractable was the bettors second choice at 2.10, and won the race 3 1/4 lengths in front of second place. The Turk took a 2 dollar flyer on Sanguine, a first time Lasik horse racing for the first time. She led for awhile and faded to finish last.
The 9th race at CD, the G3 Pocahontas Stakes, I liked Rachel Alexandra and Sara Louise. Sara Louise took the wire 3 3/4 lengths in front of Rachel Alexandra. The top four horses in the race were picked by me, but the bottom three were really outclassed anyway. No bets placed.
The 10th race at CD I was out to lunch on. It's one of those moments we all have. Pre Race, I typed Capt. Candyman Can as my favorite, only to delete it after second guessing my selection. I made my selections without seeing the Morning Line, and I was surprised to see that Capt. Candyman Can did go off as the bettors favorite. I picked Monty's Best, who finished second. No bets placed.
That drops the Turk to ($6.75) after Week 1 (Breeder's Cup to Breeder's Cup) . I'm tracking all my expenses (PP's, race charts, Blood Horse, Track Admission, etc) just for kicks. As a friend recently told the Turk, "There's nowhere to hide when you blog". Ain't that the truth!
Race 3 at HOL, I picked Pamona Ball to win and she did. The bettors agreed and sent her off at 1.90. I liked Pamona Ball and Magic Roberta in an exacta (Trifector wasn't offered), and I thought Toro Bonito would take show. It was Pamona Ball and Toro Bonito at the wire. I didn't like the Tote Board and I placed no money, made easier by the stupid internet waging silliness.
At WO in race 6, I said I liked Retractable to beat the heavy chalk, High Mist. Retractable was the bettors second choice at 2.10, and won the race 3 1/4 lengths in front of second place. The Turk took a 2 dollar flyer on Sanguine, a first time Lasik horse racing for the first time. She led for awhile and faded to finish last.
The 9th race at CD, the G3 Pocahontas Stakes, I liked Rachel Alexandra and Sara Louise. Sara Louise took the wire 3 3/4 lengths in front of Rachel Alexandra. The top four horses in the race were picked by me, but the bottom three were really outclassed anyway. No bets placed.
The 10th race at CD I was out to lunch on. It's one of those moments we all have. Pre Race, I typed Capt. Candyman Can as my favorite, only to delete it after second guessing my selection. I made my selections without seeing the Morning Line, and I was surprised to see that Capt. Candyman Can did go off as the bettors favorite. I picked Monty's Best, who finished second. No bets placed.
That drops the Turk to ($6.75) after Week 1 (Breeder's Cup to Breeder's Cup) . I'm tracking all my expenses (PP's, race charts, Blood Horse, Track Admission, etc) just for kicks. As a friend recently told the Turk, "There's nowhere to hide when you blog". Ain't that the truth!
The Nominations Are In: November 1, 2008
The Turk is looking at 4 races at three different tracks today. Of course, until the end of the year, the Turk is all about the 2 YO's, next year's stars.
I've been quiet this week, just sucking up the analysis from last weekend's Breeder's Cup. I throughly enjoyed the Breeder's Cup, and I'm excited already thinking about the Euro invasion next year. I know as we enter 2009, I'll be paying attention to the Euro's much more closely. I thought I did a good job this year, but I would watch the races this year, and they were more like curiosities. I couldn't and still can't watch a European race and relate the the trip to what my mind is conditioned to. I'm getting better reading the Euro PP's, I've taken the time to learn the trainers, the tracks, the races. I think what happened last weekend was a good thing for the sport, although that appears to be a contrarian position. It's good to be the Turk: I neither take myself too seriously, nor should my opinion be treated as anything more then it is; One Turk crying out in the wilderness.....
I digress.
HOL Race 3: The Sharp Cat, 1 1/16 miles on Hollywood's version of faux dirt, for 2YO Fillies
A five horse field with 2 maidens. The top Beyer belongs to Ten Churros at 85, but that was back in June. Toro Bonito, one of two Baffert horses in the race, comes in with an 84 at 6f at SA.
I like Pamona Ball to win. She's won at this distance recently. I like Magic Roberta to Place. A maiden, she has drilled quickly regularly over the HOL surface, and completing the trifecta is Toro Bonito.
2 bucks on the straight Trifecta.
WO Race 6: The Princess Elizabeth, 1 1/16 miles over Woodbine's verison of faux dirt, for 2 YO Fillies foaled in Canada.
The chalk should be High Mist. The filly is 3-0 and has three very consistant Beyer's. She's trying a new distance, but all wins are over this surface.
I like the filly, Retractable, to upset High Mist. She has one win, consistant but lower Beyer's then High Mist, and is also familar with WO. I'll like Retractable to win if >4-1 (possible).
I also like the unraced Sanguine. On Lasik for the first time, seemingly being placed in a difficult first race. This might be the only bet I place based on the tote board, and I'll look for huge odds and a prayer.
CD Race 9: The Pocahontas, G3, 1 Mile on good ol' fashioned KY dirt, for 2YO Fillies.
I like Rachel Alexandra in this race, and she most likely will be the bettor's chalk as well. 4 races under her belt, and the owner of two 80 plus Beyer's. The horse has drilled bullets at CD and is coming off a solid N2L at CD. This is a pretty nice field and I'll watch the tote board for better then 4-1 (maybe, doubtful).
Sara Louise is intriguing to me. Nothing special on the PP, this girl won her last race at 7f and has had some good works.
Pretty Prolific has one win at 5f and a dud of a 1 mile effort her last race out. She's raced in a G2 and a G3 and has been drilling at CD since early September.
Dr. Zic comes in with one race, one win, a wire to wire at KEE
The last possible for me is Selective, last raced in early September, and working without much fanfare at CD since.
I'm going to bet 2 bucks to win on the horse with the best long odd's. I may take an exacta play as well.
CD Race 10: The Iroquois, G3, 1 mile on dirt for 2 YO .
The 2yo races give me a headache! So much promise, so little to analyze, so much to be confused by.
I like three horses in this race. The first is Brave Victory. Coming off a so so G1 effort, his previous two races at 7f were consistent efforts of about 90 Beyer's each. He worked twice at SAR and today has her 4th jock in five races for Nic Zito.
Monty's Best is coming off a 7f win at WO . No real good reasons.
Casey's on Call is 2 for 2 with two solid consistent Beyer's and some solid works.
Again, game time decision based on the tote board.
The Turk is starting a spreadsheet for kicks. Between now and the end of the Breeder's Cup 2009, I'm going to track all my expenses and winnings and I'm hoping to break even over the course of the year. It should be amusing to see how I delude myself. Before today's races I'm ($4.75), the cost of the PP's for today.
I've been quiet this week, just sucking up the analysis from last weekend's Breeder's Cup. I throughly enjoyed the Breeder's Cup, and I'm excited already thinking about the Euro invasion next year. I know as we enter 2009, I'll be paying attention to the Euro's much more closely. I thought I did a good job this year, but I would watch the races this year, and they were more like curiosities. I couldn't and still can't watch a European race and relate the the trip to what my mind is conditioned to. I'm getting better reading the Euro PP's, I've taken the time to learn the trainers, the tracks, the races. I think what happened last weekend was a good thing for the sport, although that appears to be a contrarian position. It's good to be the Turk: I neither take myself too seriously, nor should my opinion be treated as anything more then it is; One Turk crying out in the wilderness.....
I digress.
HOL Race 3: The Sharp Cat, 1 1/16 miles on Hollywood's version of faux dirt, for 2YO Fillies
A five horse field with 2 maidens. The top Beyer belongs to Ten Churros at 85, but that was back in June. Toro Bonito, one of two Baffert horses in the race, comes in with an 84 at 6f at SA.
I like Pamona Ball to win. She's won at this distance recently. I like Magic Roberta to Place. A maiden, she has drilled quickly regularly over the HOL surface, and completing the trifecta is Toro Bonito.
2 bucks on the straight Trifecta.
WO Race 6: The Princess Elizabeth, 1 1/16 miles over Woodbine's verison of faux dirt, for 2 YO Fillies foaled in Canada.
The chalk should be High Mist. The filly is 3-0 and has three very consistant Beyer's. She's trying a new distance, but all wins are over this surface.
I like the filly, Retractable, to upset High Mist. She has one win, consistant but lower Beyer's then High Mist, and is also familar with WO. I'll like Retractable to win if >4-1 (possible).
I also like the unraced Sanguine. On Lasik for the first time, seemingly being placed in a difficult first race. This might be the only bet I place based on the tote board, and I'll look for huge odds and a prayer.
CD Race 9: The Pocahontas, G3, 1 Mile on good ol' fashioned KY dirt, for 2YO Fillies.
I like Rachel Alexandra in this race, and she most likely will be the bettor's chalk as well. 4 races under her belt, and the owner of two 80 plus Beyer's. The horse has drilled bullets at CD and is coming off a solid N2L at CD. This is a pretty nice field and I'll watch the tote board for better then 4-1 (maybe, doubtful).
Sara Louise is intriguing to me. Nothing special on the PP, this girl won her last race at 7f and has had some good works.
Pretty Prolific has one win at 5f and a dud of a 1 mile effort her last race out. She's raced in a G2 and a G3 and has been drilling at CD since early September.
Dr. Zic comes in with one race, one win, a wire to wire at KEE
The last possible for me is Selective, last raced in early September, and working without much fanfare at CD since.
I'm going to bet 2 bucks to win on the horse with the best long odd's. I may take an exacta play as well.
CD Race 10: The Iroquois, G3, 1 mile on dirt for 2 YO .
The 2yo races give me a headache! So much promise, so little to analyze, so much to be confused by.
I like three horses in this race. The first is Brave Victory. Coming off a so so G1 effort, his previous two races at 7f were consistent efforts of about 90 Beyer's each. He worked twice at SAR and today has her 4th jock in five races for Nic Zito.
Monty's Best is coming off a 7f win at WO . No real good reasons.
Casey's on Call is 2 for 2 with two solid consistent Beyer's and some solid works.
Again, game time decision based on the tote board.
The Turk is starting a spreadsheet for kicks. Between now and the end of the Breeder's Cup 2009, I'm going to track all my expenses and winnings and I'm hoping to break even over the course of the year. It should be amusing to see how I delude myself. Before today's races I'm ($4.75), the cost of the PP's for today.
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