Saturday, November 1, 2008

The Nominations Are In: November 1, 2008

The Turk is looking at 4 races at three different tracks today. Of course, until the end of the year, the Turk is all about the 2 YO's, next year's stars.

I've been quiet this week, just sucking up the analysis from last weekend's Breeder's Cup. I throughly enjoyed the Breeder's Cup, and I'm excited already thinking about the Euro invasion next year. I know as we enter 2009, I'll be paying attention to the Euro's much more closely. I thought I did a good job this year, but I would watch the races this year, and they were more like curiosities. I couldn't and still can't watch a European race and relate the the trip to what my mind is conditioned to. I'm getting better reading the Euro PP's, I've taken the time to learn the trainers, the tracks, the races. I think what happened last weekend was a good thing for the sport, although that appears to be a contrarian position. It's good to be the Turk: I neither take myself too seriously, nor should my opinion be treated as anything more then it is; One Turk crying out in the wilderness.....

I digress.

HOL Race 3: The Sharp Cat, 1 1/16 miles on Hollywood's version of faux dirt, for 2YO Fillies

A five horse field with 2 maidens. The top Beyer belongs to Ten Churros at 85, but that was back in June. Toro Bonito, one of two Baffert horses in the race, comes in with an 84 at 6f at SA.

I like Pamona Ball to win. She's won at this distance recently. I like Magic Roberta to Place. A maiden, she has drilled quickly regularly over the HOL surface, and completing the trifecta is Toro Bonito.

2 bucks on the straight Trifecta.

WO Race 6: The Princess Elizabeth, 1 1/16 miles over Woodbine's verison of faux dirt, for 2 YO Fillies foaled in Canada.

The chalk should be High Mist. The filly is 3-0 and has three very consistant Beyer's. She's trying a new distance, but all wins are over this surface.

I like the filly, Retractable, to upset High Mist. She has one win, consistant but lower Beyer's then High Mist, and is also familar with WO. I'll like Retractable to win if >4-1 (possible).

I also like the unraced Sanguine. On Lasik for the first time, seemingly being placed in a difficult first race. This might be the only bet I place based on the tote board, and I'll look for huge odds and a prayer.

CD Race 9: The Pocahontas, G3, 1 Mile on good ol' fashioned KY dirt, for 2YO Fillies.

I like Rachel Alexandra in this race, and she most likely will be the bettor's chalk as well. 4 races under her belt, and the owner of two 80 plus Beyer's. The horse has drilled bullets at CD and is coming off a solid N2L at CD. This is a pretty nice field and I'll watch the tote board for better then 4-1 (maybe, doubtful).

Sara Louise is intriguing to me. Nothing special on the PP, this girl won her last race at 7f and has had some good works.

Pretty Prolific has one win at 5f and a dud of a 1 mile effort her last race out. She's raced in a G2 and a G3 and has been drilling at CD since early September.

Dr. Zic comes in with one race, one win, a wire to wire at KEE

The last possible for me is Selective, last raced in early September, and working without much fanfare at CD since.

I'm going to bet 2 bucks to win on the horse with the best long odd's. I may take an exacta play as well.

CD Race 10: The Iroquois, G3, 1 mile on dirt for 2 YO .

The 2yo races give me a headache! So much promise, so little to analyze, so much to be confused by.

I like three horses in this race. The first is Brave Victory. Coming off a so so G1 effort, his previous two races at 7f were consistent efforts of about 90 Beyer's each. He worked twice at SAR and today has her 4th jock in five races for Nic Zito.

Monty's Best is coming off a 7f win at WO . No real good reasons.

Casey's on Call is 2 for 2 with two solid consistent Beyer's and some solid works.

Again, game time decision based on the tote board.

The Turk is starting a spreadsheet for kicks. Between now and the end of the Breeder's Cup 2009, I'm going to track all my expenses and winnings and I'm hoping to break even over the course of the year. It should be amusing to see how I delude myself. Before today's races I'm ($4.75), the cost of the PP's for today.

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