Saturday, November 15, 2008

The Nominations Are In: November 15, 2008

The Turk is looking at two races today at two different tracks.

At Aqueduct, Race 8 is The Stuyvesant, 1 1/8 miles on dirt for 3 YO and Up.

The ML Chalk at 5-2 is Solar Flare (ARG), a Larry Jones trained Fox Hill Farms 4 YO. The horse didn't fare well up in class, but bounced back to win a n4x with a 98 Beyer 3 weeks ago. I'll be looking for >3-1 or I'll be thinking exotic with him in it.

At 6-1, I like Temporary Saint, breaking from the 7 spot. The horse has two low 100 Beyer's and an upper 90 Beyer since mid September. The 5 YO grey/roan won a G3 at this distance at Aqueduct with a 105 Beyer in April 2008.

At 12-1 is Helsinki, racing for the first time in 51 Weeks. The horse has six works at Belmont since early October and may be worth a flyer at these odds.

The ML Place Horse at 7-2 is Brilliant Son. The horse hasn't won in a year, has 3 wins in 14 starts lifetime and the works for this 5 YO McLaughlin trainee don't seem that impressive, except for possibly a lone 47 and 3/5 at 4f in early October. I hope money flows to him, but I won't be (aka The Turk Kiss of Death).

So....I think the ML has this one right. I like Solar Flare, but only a win bet if >3-1. Instead I'll look to couple Solar Flare in a Tri and I may take a flyer on one of the horses I like for odds >8-1.

Little Turk is pleased to look for value and has an eye on Dry Martini, especially if >8-1.

Race 8 at CD, The Cardinal Handicap, G3, 1 1/8 on the turf for F&M, 3YO and up.

At ML 4-1, I like Lady Digby. Lightly raced since the summer, but working consistently since early October. A 30% winner on Turf, I'm looking for a Beyer approaching 97 today.

The ML Chalk is is Callwood Dancer (IRE). A 36% winner on Turf and a Turf Beyer of 100, the 4 Yo was formidable in the G1 EP Taylor at WO in early October giving Folk Opera all she could handle. This horse will be in the money today, and I'm thinking the odds could fall slightly.

Meribel at 9-2 and Ciao at 6-1 will look to fill out the finishers.

I'm going to watch the tote board and the track bias as the day goes on, especially as the weather is turning quickly in NY, and we'll see.

Little Turk cares nothing for the tote board and looks for Leparoux to stay hot and picks 6-1 Long Approach.

Woodbine has 2 nice 2 YO races this weekend, the Glorious Song today at 7f for fillies and tomorrow's Coronation Futurity at 9f for Canadian Bred. I'll be paying my attention to WO all weekend and if i get time later, will share my thoughts on both of these races.

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