Saturday, November 22, 2008

The Nomination Selections: November 22, 2008

The Turk has a massive non-horse work load today, so forgive my brevity. Forgive the fact I do anything to do besides following the horses too.

Woodbine Race 6: The Kennedy Road, G3. 6f run on WO version of faux dirt.

I see three strong possibilities to win this race: From the 6 spot is Legal Move. The 4 YO is right about Grade 3 quality, perhaps a bit less. 6F seems to be a comfortable distance to him and he's won 9 times out of 16 races at WO, and he's 7 for 10 from the distance with a 99 high Beyer. ML had him at 3.5-1 and while not the chalk, he's close and will attract money.

From the 8 spot is Storm Treasure, who is the ML chalk at 5-2. He's returning to work after finishing third in the Breeder's Cup Turf Sprint. I think money will flow heavy to him and I'm hoping the commotion of the trip from SA to CD and now the cold of Woodbine gets to him.

And in the 9 spot, Just Rushing. The horse is a ML 4-1, who has had a series of good works, mostly consistent Beyers and 8 wins at WO, including a 40% win rate and a 99 high Beyer on the fake dirt.

My close and maybe in the exotic pool is the 5 horse, The Great Caruso and the 4 horse, Hosta Rica.

I like Legal Move to win. I'm betting if >7-2. I plan on taking a $2 flyer on the 7 horse, Main Executive. At a ML 12-1, I'm looking for at least >9-1 at post time. The horse did some work from the gate and is adding blinkers for the first time. He's capable of a 98 Beyer on this course at this distance.

I'm sticking to $4 bucks on this race and I might string an exacta together at post time as well that includes Legal Move.

And Race 9 at Churchill Downs, The River City Handicap, G3. 1 1/8 miles run over Ol' Kentucky turf for 3 YO and up.

I have two strong contenders for this race. In the 5 spot is Karelian. My knock on him is this maybe a 1/16 to long, but we'll see. He's 2 for 2 on CD turf and he brings alot of class to this race. He's a ML 5-1.

From the 11 spot is Thorn Song who will enter as the heavy ML chalk at 6-5. Forgetting the Breeder's Cup and this horse has been nothing but three digit Beyer's since since June. He's 4 for 5 on CD turf but again the distance has been a stumbling block.

I really like the 9 horse, Canela, who is a ML 8-1. The horse is 4-4 on CD turf, 4 for 5 at the distance and has J. Leparoux and his gaudy 29% winning record at CD up.

While I don't see him winning, from the 1 post, Yate's Black Cat is a ML 5-1 and a very consistent mid 90's Beyer. This horse is Dale Roman's other entry along with Thorn Song, but I don't see him as a rabbit but more as a stretch run competitor.

It's a big field and I think money will flow to the two horses I think are favorites, but especially Thorn Song. I'm looking for Canela if at least >7-1 to win. I like Karelian if >5-1 and I think I'll bet no more then 6 bucks with the last two bucks on an exacta I throw together, most likely with Thorn Song and a longer odds challenger.

As always, watch the tote. Only the foolish bet early.

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