Well, sometimes you are right, and sometimes you are wrong, and sometimes the results are a murky grey of right and wrong.
In the Coronation Futurity today at WO, the Turk thought the chalk was beatable and predicted a nice win payout and exacta payout, even with just a six horse field.
Pre-race I discounted the eventual winner Active Duty ($25 dollar win bet), as well as the horse (Gallant- finished fourth) that set the pace most of the way.
The two horses I keyed on, Cool Diablo (someone wake him up) and Khabibulin (who found a great turn of foot on the stretch and just needs a better start) didn't show the speed I expected, and the very heavy chalk, El Brujo, broke well, stalked but couldn't finish in front.
I'm disappointed as I smelled upset and big pay-out, but honestly, didn't see Active Duty winning this race, even in hindsight.
The only upside is the Turk flapped his blogging gums too long and too close to the start of the race and when I arrived back at Twin Spires I didn't allow enough time to place the bet. No money lost.