Sunday, March 29, 2009

The Nomination Is In: March 29, 2009 - The Sunland Derby

Hair of the dog my friends. You'd think I'd be horse raced out after the past few days, but the best remedy for the hangover is a small dose of what hung you over. No, I'm not talking about bourbon, but an interesting little dirt race worth more the Florida Derby, in a big league horse racing backwater(Pepper's Pride, my apologies), New Mexico. The race has attracted an interesting crop of lesser known 3YOs, and a few with graded stakes earnings that would make Dunkirk jealous.

Race 12 Sunland Park: The Sunland Derby 800K; 1 1/8 miles on Dirt for 3YOs.

I've been watching Kelly Leak for the past few weeks. Coming off a turf race, and before that a 6f sprint, the Grade II winner is versatile and should be fast enough. By no stretch a gimmie, as the second best colt in this race, Mayor Marv will most likely go to the lead, and it will be up to Kelly Leak to be in a position to take the race back in the last furlong.

Mine That Bird is 4 of 7 lifetime and has over $325,000 in earnings. The Grade III winner ran in the Breeder's Cup before shuffling trainers. Advice gets blinkers for the first time, something that Trainer Pletcher eeks wins out 26% of the time doing. Advice has regressed or not progressed after running with some really talented horses as a two year old. Valid Stripes owns the biggest BSF at 100 and 2 of the top three BSF in the race.

I think money will split even between Mayor Marv and Kelley's Leak. I most likely will tie both of them to some value in a trifecta or a series of straight trifectas.

Hair of the dog indeed.


Keith - TripleDeadHeat said...

I'll be cheering for the canadian connected Mine That Bird...not as solid as Square Eddie, but Canada is running out of options.


Amateurcapper said...

I'm watching the speed going synthetic/turf to dirt. SANTAMONICACANYON was a stubborn loser to KELLY LEAK on grass at a mile last out. Went :22 3/5 early yet was able to finish in :24 2/5. Horses that show faster than normal speed on synthetics or turf in the first three fractions tend to use that momentum to better advantage on dirt. I WANT REVENGE was one. WELL ARMED was emphatic proof yesterday.

Also heard on radio a handicapper picked ADVICE. You have selected KELLY LEAK. Keith is cheering on MINE THAT BIRD. Ryan at GRADED STAKES blog has MAYOR MARV, VALID STRIPES, and ADVICE mentioned in order.

Translation, this is a wide open race.

Good luck with your picks.

Jessica said...

Hope you cashed with Kelly Leak. Nice handicapping, Turk!

Amateurcapper said...

Great call on KELLY LEAK. Late money depressed his odds. Hope you had the exacta w/ 3rd choice.

BTW, thank MARV for dueling SANTAMONICACANYON into submission.