Sunday, March 8, 2009

Post Race Analysis for Race Day March 7, 2009: The Gotham

This is an exciting time of the year for me, and this year's prep races continue to amaze me. I'm a horse racing fan. I want to be amazed. I guess I'm slightly stunned at how no one horse in the 3 YO division has clearly separated himself from the others, perhaps with the exception of Old Fashioned, but even that is premature. I would love nothing more then to be sitting here in early May with 4-5 horses I could make a strong argument to win the Derby for. One more set of big prep races for these horses to go through, The Florida Derby, The Santa Anita Derby, The Wood Memorial, et al and then pencils down. To me, this has been a very exciting early season.

Yesterday's Gotham was another example of the topsy turvey nature of trying to clearly identify the best of the 401 Triple Crown Nominees. I Want Revenge is a fine horse, and him leaving the synthetics, shipping all the way to New York, and putting in a dominant 8 1/2 lengths victory should make everyone take notice.

There was much to like about I Want Revenge. He's lost to horses that were better then this field. He's faced G1 and G2 fields. He's consistently working at 5F in mid :59's. He's worked a 7f in 1:23 3/5ths and a 6f in 1:10 4/5ths. Those are good numbers. What I didn't like was he was 1 win in 6 tries and he had never raced on dirt. Throw that out the window!

Imperial Council answered the distance question yesterday as well, closing out the final 1/8 in good fashion.

Aqueduct Race 9, The Gotham Grade III: 1 1/16 on the inner dirt for 3 YOs.





The Turk spent an afternoon at Buffalo General Hospital, amused at the contradictory information that has been given to my father in the span of two days: Going home,not going home; Heart fibrillation/No fibrillation: prognosis/different prognosis. I have an awful lot of respect for the medical community, but I can't say the group that's punching the clock while working around Papa Turk has inspired much confidence. I placed no bets on the Gotham, and studying it today, I don't think I would have cashed any tickets with my conservative style. I needed Haynesfield to be in the top four.

On an unrelated note, I am so excited about Einstein. His Big Cap win really cements his place in the older division and the consistency to his efforts would have in a past era made him an American hero, albeit a Brazilian born one. 10 wins now in 24 starts for the 7 year old and over 2.6 million in earnings.

2 comments:

Amateurcapper said...

Turk,

How's pops feeling? Sometimes w/ cardiac issues, the diagnosis will only come clear with more tests. Perhaps they're not willing to subject him to them if he's still recovering. I'll say a prayer for his speedy recovery.

As for why no horse has separated themselves from the field, many still have at least one more prep. There's also too many ways to get to the Derby. Back in the day, it was common sense that decided whether there were horses good enough to run in the Derby. Now it's earnings, and owners/trainers will get them wherever they can. There are many options. Does anyone remember who won the G.3 Delta Jackpot? If so, is he a legit Derby contender?

I WANT REVENGE stepped up and won like he should have to be a legit Derby contender. He did what he was supposed to, considering the class edge you stated. In one fell swoop, he also raised eyebrows about the Derby chances of other Cali 3y.o.'s.

IMPERIAL COUNCIL is developing too late and trying to make the Derby will only diminish his potential later this year and into his 4y.o. season. I think the Belmont S. is a more realistic goal, then the Jim Dandy and Travers at Saratoga.

HAYNESFIELD was exposed, as was MR. FANTASY. At least the latter ran to the stretch before tiring, suggesting he could have bounced a little off that big sheets figure edge he held.

EINSTEIN is a horse for all courses. Won the G.2 Clark on dirt (also 2-for-3 on wet tracks), multiple G.1's on turf, and now the G.1 Big 'Cap on synthetic. How valuable will he be as a stallion??? Earned over $2.2 million, by a Derby winner, and has the looks of an Adonis of equines!!!

EquiSpace said...

Turk,

Sorry to hear your father is back at BGH...here's to a speedy recovery...