Saturday, November 21, 2009

Post Race Analysis for Race Day November 21, 2009: The Kennedy Road at Woodbine

Ahh, the lovely Dita joins me tonight to celebrate a fine handicap in today's Grade III Kennedy Road 6f sprint at Woodbine. Ms. Von Teese, a fine handicapper in her own right, understands as I, the difference between celebrating success that results from hard work and disciplined horseplaying and bragging. The Turk never brags, as he knows how humbling the horse game can be. I thank Mrs. Turk as always for her tolerance of these celebratory smokes, she's a damn fine woman in her own right. Alrighty, lets go!

After spending a few minutes contemplating The Discovery Handicap at Aqueduct, I just had a 1-800-Hammer feeling about betting on a race I thought Gone Astray couldn't possibly lose. The disciplined bettor in me said no and I entered the Kennedy Road with extra money in my weekend betting budget. What to do with it, hmmmm?

As I said pre-race, I was going to bet a series of Exacta Bets with Smokey Fire on top and then a few straight superfectas. As I checked the tote board minutes before post I salivated as I saw Smokey Fire about where I thought he would be but Field Commission only the 4th favorite with bettors.

Putting Smokey Fire ontop of my pre race handicap I thought was a real gamble (funny, we are gambling after all). My base handicap is my "reordering" of the Morning Line. It is not, as it is often mistakenly thought of, as my betting strategy. It is my morning line and it often lines up, especially the top and bottom picks, with the track handicappers official morning line. This handicap wasn't even close yet it seemed so obvious to me that Trainer Attard was slipping Smokey Fire into a slot he thought he could do well. The Turk talks about consistency and discipline quite a bit. I talk about it because I believe in it, I believe that if you build a base handicap, believe in the base handicap, and then work that handicap with bets that make sense from a risk/reward perspective, over the long haul you will do well. When my handicap doesn't line up with the track handicap I trust in my handicap, as hard as that can be.

All that said, I was truly shocked that Field Commission wasn't higher with the bettors and I thought both El Brujo and Jungle Wave and Bouge Chitto were all good choices but no where near as good as Field Commission, and in my opinion, not currently in the form of Smokey Fire.

I placed $10 on my base handicap exacta of Smokey Fire and Field Commission, straight up. I also had $2 win on Smokey Fire and I bet five $2 Triactors with Smokey Fire and Field Commission on top, straight up, on all of them and then five of the field filling in the Show place. I mentioned Signature Red in my pre race cap as well, but his inclusion was a hunch.

Race 8 Woodbine: The Kennedy Road Grade III; 6 Furlongs on Poly for 3 YOs and UP.

That's alot of money to win with a risk of $22 dollars. The game we play is cruel and sometimes ironic. You build a base handicap and sometimes your A+ horse finishes dead last. As a hero of mine said, shake the dirt off your sandals when you have a bad handicap and just keep going.

Have Fun, Turk Out!


dana said...

Well played, sir!

The Turk said...

Thank you Dana. I think I can finally afford the new snuggie I've had my eye on!

dana said...

I take the whole Turk clan is getting new snuggies with that pay day... and right in time for the holidays!