The Nomination Is In: The Joe Hirsch Turf Classic

Joe Hirsch-Photo by Blood Horse

Welcome friends to the Turk and the Little Turk Blog.   Joe Hirsch, known as the Dean of American Turf Racing has been gone over over 9 years now, but with a Grade One race, The Turf Classic, names after him, he's far from forgotten.

Such a different era on so many different levels.  the County was different, horse racing was prominent, journalists were respected, integrity and ethics were everything.  It's amazing to me how as a society we have devolved the institutions of news reporting, in my humble opinion set in motion by a perfect storm of deregulation, the treating of news media as entertainment, the collapse of print and the rise of the internet, where any half-ass blogger or tweeter can say anything in a few pithy sentences and have it read more often, by more people, than any long form writer could hope for.

The American's of Joe Hirsch's heyday had to get the paper and read the words written about the greats of turf.  For me, it was waiting for Sports Illustrated and the writing of another great voice, Bill Nack, or listening to Jim McKay on ABC Sports on the weekend.  The Turk is none of those men.  I am neither a trained journalist or a professional writer.  What I do have in common with them is ethics and integrity.  I try to express my views and opinions on the sport of horse racing, and handicapping in particular, with honesty.  There is enough of fake news in our world, I try not to add to that blight. I'm not a tout, as four a four-letter word as there are to me.  I'm also neither part of the online horse racing intelligentsia that chimes in from some moral high ground tweeting disdain for anyone deemed not worthy.  If you are reading the Turk, and I know who you are,  all I can offer is my love of the horses above all else, my thirty years of reading past performances and analyzing the repeating patterns of them and my bet construction thoughts.  Know this:  I'm not trying to get rich betting the races.  I'm game is purely to carve out positive ROI over a long period of time and this platform of mine, now in it's tenth year, most likely isn't going to change much.  If that's cool with you, thanks and let's get after this race!


The weather is dry but the tracks are soaked.  This one however is on the turf which I'm handicapping as Soft/Yielding.  By the way, I've already handicapped The Vosburg, which is on the dirt, currently listed as Good but I have hopes it will be Fast later today.

Five of the eight entries here last raced in the 1 1/2 Mile Sword Dancer on Travers Day (missing: Robert Bruce, Carrick and Teodoro)


Sword Dancer G1:  1 1/2 Miles Firm Turf SAR



Four the entrants went in The Bowling Green on soft surface.

Bowling Green G2: 1 3/8 Miles Soft Turf SAR



Robert Bruce (Chi) looking pretty strong swinging wide and closing at the Arlington Million.  Below you'll see him run a subtle 6th place finish but close to the winner in a blanket at The Manhattan. 

Arlington Million G1 : 1 1/4 Mile Firm Turf AP

6 lengths back at the 1/8 pole.  Very strong showing indeed.












Here we have Carrick, a lightly raced 3 YO coming in from good turf at 1 1/4 Miles.  2 of 2 at Belmont, 4 of 4 in the money over turf.


The Secretariat G1:  1 1/4 Miles on Good Turf AP




The Manhattan G1:  1 1/4 Miles on Firm Turf BEL



I watched a bunch of video as well this morning on Twinspires TV of Teodoro (Ire).  Lasix for first time, drops 5 pounds, cuts back in distance.  Very inconsistent.  Isn't chalk overseas. I'm passing for now.


What do we do with this information?  I can't say I have a very strong opinion as The Turk fair line illustrates.




I'm thinking low risk exacta where I'm purely hunting for value.  I may just put Channel Maker on top with four or five of the field below him.  Something like 8 OVER 3-6-1-2-7 for $5.  Perhaps that's a bet that you hit only 20% of the time, maybe less, but the reward is worth the capital risk, and you must face it, capital risk is part of any game where you hand 20+% back to the house before you even start. 


Have fun with this friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Vosburgh G1 at Belmont

Imperial Hint- Photo Breeders' Cup website/Gulfstream Park

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog, which just days ago celebrated 10 years of handicapping and bet construction.  I'd like to thank the good people of The Thorofan and The Thorofan Handicappers Corner for allowing me the opportunity to share my thoughts  with their readers.

Today's effort is The Vosburgh, a 6f Grade 1 on the dirt at Belmont Park.

Pictured is Imperial Hint.  Readers of The Turk know I have a general disdain for morning lines and I usually avoid most racing news articles in advance of handicapping.  Why?  I find that sort of information can bias my thoughts and I try to avoid preconceived notions and confirmation bias.  I print my past performances without the Morning Lines, I build my Fair Line Odds and only then do I look at the Morning Lines.  I had a feeling when I looked at the past performances that Imperial Hint would be a big Morning Line, and 1-5 didn't really surprise me.  Not only is the 5 YO son of Imperialism a truly dominant sprinter, this field is pretty unspectacular.  the remaining six horses in this field, in their last two races each or over 12 races we have:

• 1 Graded Stake:  Mr Crow who also raced (4th - 8 1/4 back) in the Vanderbilt G1 with Imperial Hint.
• 4 Claiming Races $32-$50
• 3 Optional Claimers$35-$80K
• 1 $25K Allowance
• 3 $97 Stakes

Imperial Hint has $1.2 MM in career earnings and the rest of the field $1.4 MM.  

While I have no preconceived notion of the handicap, I do have an early idea of my bet construction plan when I see this sort of pattern forming with a heavy chalk and an unheralded field.  I'm thinking low risk exactas with Imperial Hint on top and two or three of the longest prices entering the gate in Place for now more than $6 bucks or so OR 3 or 4 of the mid sized prices over Imperial Hint for no more that $8 bucks. 

Friday sees the end of a rainy week and most of Friday and Saturday looks dry.  Expect a fast track.  You'll find the link to NYRA/Belmont here for track condition, scratches and changes, etc. 

Let's get after this!

Let's start with the whale, Imperial Hint. 

Vanderbilt G1: 6f on good dirt.  A complete handride by Castellano.  Dominance.




The True North G2: 6 1/2 f on Fast Dirt.



Imperial Hint is training exceptionally well;  six straight bullet workouts with lots of company(19,10,26,18,61,43).  8 of last ten races 100+ Beyer.  7 Wins in 10 starts at the distance.  Only finish out of the money in 2018 was on the slop at Churchill Downs on Kentucky Derby Day.

 The Churchill Downs Grade 2: 7f on sealed slop.





Silver Ride has always been a bit of a tease but its hard to believe, the gelded son of Candy Ride (Arg) is 6 YO.  9 of 16 Lifetime in the money over fast dirt with 429 Tomlinson on Wet Dirt and 408 Tomlinson at the distance but only 1 win in 7 tries at 6f.  Adding 4 pounds from last effort, The Tale of the Cat $97K at Saratoga at 6f on fast dirt.



Paceless, 5 horse field that included Mr. Crow in his last off effort. Trainer Lynch is a 23% Grade Stakes winner and a 7% winner only at Belmont over current meet.  He is a 33% winner at Belmont coupled with J. Ortiz, up. Eh.

Still Krz comes in off a $32,000 claimer.  He's been claimed three times in past year.  6 YO gelding has 6 wins in 20 starts at the distance and 11 Win-Place efforts in 19 Fast Dirt Starts.  Ontario bred. Big Timeform early pace fig of 129.  Will/can he carry?

Mr. Crow finished 13 1/2 lengths up the track back of the winner in last years edition of this race.  Since that effort, he was claimed for $62K and has one win in last five efforts.  His running lines:  "...last away...weakened....bobbled...no match..."  Adds 4 pounds from Tale of the Cat.  Last two races J. Ortiz was up but he jumps to Silver Ride, and Saez, who's piloted Silver Ride's last two races is up on Mr. Crow for Conditioner Ben Colebrook.

Forge and Manical should be rolling early and I suspect Imperial Hint will set up off their flanks pressing their pace.  Forge is 0 of 3 starts at Belmont but 6 of 7 in the money at the distance and 7 of 11 in the money on fast dirt.  Manical goes for Wesley Ward with J. Velazquez up.  6 of 8 in the money in 2018 for a Kitten's Joy who has started 7 of 16 times on grass.

For my purposes, I'd tossing Sightforsoreeyes at my own peril.

So what to do with this?  My mind hasn't really changed.  This is the sort of race I'll be paying attention to the Will Pay ticker as the post parade nears the gate.  I'll be looking for the value bets with Imperial Hint in the Win spot as well as the Place Spot.  I'm not interested in investing $2 dollars to make $3.  I am willing to invest $10 for a chance to make $50.  Is he unbeatable?  No.

Have fun with it friends,  Turk Out!

Anatomy of a Bet: The $100,000 Laurel Turf Cup Exacta

Hello Don Julio: Photo Gulfstream Park Twitter Feed

Welcome friends to the Turk and the Little Turk Blog.

Simple.  I don't say that to boast, I say that to point out opportunities exist to make money in this game.  In this morning's blog post, I repeatedly stated that the $100,000 Laurel Park Turf Cup was a wide open race.  The morning line and presumptive post time chalk, Hello Don Julio looked vulnerable, but from whom?  An eleven horse field of vanilla.  For the first time perhaps ever in the long history of The Turk, I suggested an exacta bet with The Turk's top two favorites over the field.  For a $20 bet, it looked like the downside case was Hello Don Julio won and Final Copy at $3.70 odds, Renown at $5.20 or Vintage Matters at $7.20 Placed, returning me about the value of the bet.  The upside was if some of the longer prices came in Place, and $115 to $1 Cooptado (Arg) did just that returning the Turk $130 or $110 net.  Cooptado (Arg) on paper looked rough, the 8 YO hadn't hit the board in 5 races in 2018, and unraced since June.  Working at Laurel over the main track, Trainer Thomas Morley did a nice job putting him in a good spot.  His late Timeform Pace fig is 102 but that late turn of foot has not been evident in any of this year's races.

Why'd I pick the field to Place?  Again, it was wide open on paper.  My Turk Fair Line illustrates this.  Am I retiring on this win?  No, but again, The Turk says it all the time, I'm a low risk, medium reward handicapper/Investor and I just keep carving out this type of wins that are offset partially by the losses, but overall positive ROI.

Churning out a positive return on investment has become the game to me.

Have fun with whatever your game is.  Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The $100K Laurel Park Turf Cup

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk blog.

Wide Open!  That is what I would say to describe today's handicapping challenge, the $100,000 Laurel Park Turf Cup, which thanks to the track announcer, confirmed to me that the race is indeed on the turf today.  Twitter is a powerful tool for a handicapper who is trying to collect information.  I understand budgets are tight at the tracks, but a good social media poster who can respond to tweets is incredibly helpful.  Through 4 races while I write this the Turf is listed as good. 

Wide Open!  Let's get after it.





Renown (GB) enters off a show finish (Place through DQ) in the $100K John's Call Stakes at SAR in mid August.



Bottled up along the rail after breaking from 5 hole, Renown (GB) darted through a hole late showing as his  running line said "...good courage". 11 of 20 In the Money over grass with 8 wins, a 50% winner at this distance in 12 starts, distance (1/8 cut), class (same), and weight (-1) all pretty consistent with last time out for conditioner Elizabeth Voss who is 49% in the money and a 19% winner in 2018 over 37 starts in these conditions.

Hello Don Julio  enters off 1 3/8 $80K OC at SAR where he finished Place by a neck after leading most of the way.   9 of 16 in the money over grass, no wins in only one try at the distance for the 6 YO gelded son of Afleet Alex. Class, Distance and Weight (+2) all step ups.

Postulation is down over past two races but is going with Michael Matz today for first time (29% in 7 tries with first timers). Training sharply, the 6 Yo gelded son of Harlan's Holiday is going at same distance, with similar class and weight (+1), 8 Win-Places in 19 career starts. 

Tizzarunner has 2 wins in 3 Laurel Park starts and breaks from far outside post today.  Winless in 2018, class dropped from Grade 2 to 3 to $97K and now $100K stakes.  Last time out at Ellis Park  he finished well beaten in the Kentucky Downs Turf Cup Preview. 

Final Copy and Vintage Matters break 1 and 2 on the inside respectively.  Final Copy has no wins in 5 tries at the distance, drops in Class from Grade 2 Nijinsky at Woodbine at similar distance but picking up 3 pounds.  Over good turf he ran evenly throughout. Ontario bred Malibu Moon 4 YO trained by Roger Attfield. 

Vintage Matters hasn't won in 2 years and 2 months, only has 1 win in 11 turf tries and is 1 of 11 lifetime as well and is 6-1 Morning line incredibly.  Wide Open!

Not In Charge has nice late turn of foot and comes in with a 1 1/2 mile win overfirm turf on this course. Scuba , a 7 YO gelded son of Tapit, makes his 5th career turf start and is looking for win 2. 

I'm thinking that any of the field can PLACE but only a few logical winners, led by Renown and Hello Don Julio.  I'll be building exacta tickets after looking at the Will Pay's just before they head into the gate.

Have fun friends.

Turk Out!

Milestones: 650 Blog Posts and 10 Years of Blogging

Welcome friends to a special Turk and the Little Turk entry.  It's hard to believe, but 10 years of blogging is upon us and we reached that milestone at the same time as we've reached 650 Blog Posts.

Is this "must read" material?  Far from it, but it's done honestly and objectively.  I strive to offer my readers a politics free/religion free/ no BS view of each race that I feature, not to tell you who to bet but to hopefully to help you solidify your own opinions one way or the other and to see the races perhaps from another perspective.

I hate the term tout.  I am not a tout.  I am indifferent to what you do nor do I engage in telling people why they are wrong and I'm right.  Not my scene.  I love the sport, I'm good at making small incremental additions to my investment capital, and most importantly, I do this for the relaxation and enjoyment it brings me.

I'd be remiss to not credit my handicapping style to the writings of Brad Free and Tom Ainslie, with a few others mixed in as well.  My blogging was inspired by the blogs I found online.  Gene Kershner should be blamed thoroughly for providing early assistance and encouragement.  You can find his excellent work for The Buffalo News here. 

Raceday 360 has been a major source of my traffic for years now and The Thorofan's Handicappers Corner have been very supportive, even after some terrible picks I've made for them over the years. 

You only get so many 10 year periods of time in your lifetime.  This blog has been my major work "destressing" outlet, and for that I am grateful.  Blogging took a real hit after Twitter arrived.  People don't write in the long form much when most people just want to know who you are picking.  I've never been a person who gave a hoot about the trends of our culture, and the meager traffic doesn't concern me either.  I know I have readers, I appreciate each one of them and that's all that matters.

Big Thanks to Mrs Turk who indulges this time suck as well as my sidekick, the not so little anymore, Little Turk. 

The Turk! 

The Nomination Is In: The Woodbine Mile G1

Woodbine Mile       Photo by: Woodbine Entertainment

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk.

Woodbine is a pretty short drive from the Turk's home, just up the QEW from where I live in Niagara Falls, NY.  This premier turf race, The Woodbine Mile, shifted off of dirt in 1997 to the Taylor Turf Course, a top shelf route of grass. Is it the premier September race on the stakes calendar? I think it is although Jockey Gold Cup Day may have more total meat on the bone, and Kentucky Downs Turf Cup has its own special attractions.

 I Was there and got to see one of my favorites, Rahy's Attorney win at a big price in 2008.  The average win bet has paid $9.87 over the past 15 editions.  I'm not sure if today isn't chalky, but there are some solid live and long candidates to choose from.  I think I'll be playing exactas unless at the end of typing this analysis up I determine that the win bet risk is more appropriate to my thinking.  Sometimes Win or Win-Place is the right answer if you can't assemble an exacta ticket that makes sense at the right investment level.  I've been guilty too many times of chasing exactas and overpaying where a simple win bet would have been a fine return.  If your a long term player  who thinks about  ROI over the course of a year or multi year, what does it matter who the return is made?  I use to think, especially when I wrote these blog posts, my readers needed to see something wiseguy-ish, a sexy and bold choice. I got over that quickly and got back to what I do well: Pick winners, eliminate pretenders and assemble tickets.  I'm about making more on the return than what the bet cost me to make (although I can still be a bit dumb sometimes if I get caught up in the moment).

Let's get after this!




King Edward Grade 2:  1 Mile Firm Turf  WO



It's hard to ignore the strong first 2018 performance of Delta Prince over this Woodbine turf in late June.  7 of 7 in the money over turf, 6 of 6 in the money at the distance and the Woodbine win in the 5 YO son of Street Cry out of Delta Princess. 9 starts lifetime, distance and class remain unchanged but he does pick up 5 pounds from his Grade 1 win in the Fourstardave at Saratoga in mid August.  Late speed but good early tactical speed as needed.

Divisidero was outkicked here after winning Arlington Handicap G3 in last time out.  4 Starts at 1 Mile: a Place and 2 Shows.  2 Wins in last 11.  Nice price to win but the stars would have to align.

Fourstardave Handicap Grade 1:  1 Mile good turf SAR




Lord Glitters (Fr), an absolutely stunning grey, has lasix for first time, drops 10 pounds from last effort, a Grade 1 win at York as the chalk.  Dropping is distance, comfortable on LH courses.


Skybet and Symphony Group Stakes $128K York (GB); 1 1/16 Miles LH Good Turf (Lord Glitters (Fr))



A bit about Lord Glitters here and the path the conditioner is taking her, a familiar path to fans of Mondialiste.

La Sardane (Fr), a filly, Vanish and Mr. Havercamp all went in the Play the King over a shorter race and yielding turf.  The filly didn't care for it but the boys ran well.

Play the King Grade 2: 7f on yielding Turf  WO



And here's Vanish winning the race 2 months back just before the Play The King effort, winning at $2.30-1 odds.


OC 40K (28 July 2018); 7f good Turf WO (Vanish)



Oscar Performance was pulled up after taking a bad step in the Arlington Million in mid August.  He checked out fine and has been training sharply over Saratoga's turf for trainer Brian Lynch.  7 Wins in 13 turf starts but never Placed and only one Show finish.  All or nothing? Here is the 4 YO Kitten's Joy winning his 2018 debut setting a course record at Belmont.

Poker G3; 1 Mile Fast Turf BEL (Corse Record 1' 31") with :22.79 final quarter. Oscar Performance



I don't have a good feel for what to do with far post Stormy Antarctic (GB).  Also on lasix first time, also shedding 10 pounds, a class jump (albeit not much) and distance unchanged.  10 of 14 in the money at the distance and 16 of 21 in the money over turf including 12 of 21 Win-Place finishes. 5 of 5 in the money in 2018.

Prix Edmond Blanc G3: 1 Mile Heavy Turf LH St Cloud (Fr).   Stormy Antarctic (GB)





Ahh, Bill Mott, the ultimate trap trainer.  You have to go all the way back to 1997 when Mott had Chris Antly (rest in peace) up for a win with Geri.  I have not been a big fan of Good Samaritan and maybe its uncalled for. I love the late turn of foot, the 5 of 6 in the money over grass, the 2 of 2 in the money at the distance, the one win at Woodbine in only ship here.  What don't I like?  A lack of signature wins.  I'll draw a line through The Whitney, but The Met Mile?  Eh. Blinkers Off, Mott wins 33% of these while his Dirt to Turf is 13% in 97 tries.


The Whitney Grade 1: 1 1/8 Miles Sloppy and Sealed SAR





Here's Mr. Havencamp's sire winning the 2010 Woodbine Mile: Court Vision, still one of my best Breeders' Cup bets of all time (Little Turk that is).




I will absolutely have $2 Win Bets on Mr. Havencamp and Lord Glitters (Fr).  They are worth a gamble.

Delta Prince is the obvious choice  but this is gambling.  I'm not sure how I'll play yet but the investment will be small in this one for me and if forced to say:

Win $2                        5-6 =$4
Exacta $2                   3 OVER 9-7-8-6-5-1  =$12

Have Fun, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Belle Mahone $100K at Woodbine

Gamble's Ghost- Photo by Michael Burns

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk.  I woke up yesterday with a terrible headache, the sort of headache I get when a serious change in the weather is upon us.  The headache sapped me of my willingness to work my way through 28 pages of Past Performance for races 6-10 at Kentucky Downs.  I did enjoy the races and I'm disappointed I missed out on such a lovely day of opportunities at the betting window.  September to me, with the buzz of Saratoga and Del Mar behind us, is about some of my lesser played yet favorite tracks:  Kentucky Downs, Presque Isle Downs, Woodbine and PARX. There is a little biy of something interesting to be found in September at each of these tracks leading up to big weekends at Belmont and Santa Anita one month before Breeders' Cup Weekend.  The rhythm of the race calendar is alive in my mind and with the coming Fall comes these tracks, and today I'm playing Woodbine mostly to avoid the rain that will make a mess of many other places.

Today's featured race for blogging purposes is the $100,000 Belle Mahone Stakes, a 1 1/16 Mile fake dirt affair for Fillies and Mares 3 YO and up.

The Morning Line favorite is 7-5 Gamble's Ghost, pictured above.  in my Turk Fair Line, I think his odds are close to 1-1, a 50% chance of winning, a rare value for me to assign but it's hard to argue against last year's winner not repeating.  Let's get after it!




Gamble's Ghost is a beast: 9 wins in 13 Fake Dirt starts, 6 wins in 8 starts at this distance, 9 wins in 13 Woodbine starts, $720,000 in earnings .  Zero wins in six starts away from Woodbine and Zero Wins on Turf and Zero wins on Dirt.  This horse likes the fake dirt surface.  Here she is in the Grade 3 Ontario Matron.




I'm a gambler, and I see a 1-1 horse as having a 50% chance of losing as well as having a 50% chance of winning.  The ONLY reason for me to play this race is the off chance she gets beat.

If you are going to bet the heavy chalk loses, you better have someone who can win.  My choice is Superioritycomplex (Ire), The 4 YO Hard Spun Irish daughter out of Justlookdonttouch (Ire).  

Watch this very professional late turn of foot from her at Arlington over yielding turf in mid August.  She's the five horse  with dark blue silks, about 6 lengths back at top of stretch before drawing off.

  

My Arch Enemy, a 4 YO Arch for conditioner Mark Casse is early speed who should hold the rail most of the way.  6 Show finishes in 12 lifetime starts. 

Giada Vegas returns to action after a layoff since mid February.  Also conditioned by Mark Casse, he's 18% off +180 Day break.  3 of 3 at Woodbine and 3 of 3 at the Distance for the Scat Daddy 5 YO.

I'll be playing the exact and the 20 cent Super based on my bet selections listed above.

Have fun friends!  We'll be back mid week for the last two days of the Kentucky Downs Meet. 

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Old Friends $250K at Kentucky Downs

"....and they're off!"  Photo:  Thoroughbred Daily News

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk blog. We're back for the second of five days of this meet and the focus race is the $250,000 Old Friends, Race 9, for three year old's and up which have not won a sweepstakes in 2018.

You will find entries, scratches and changes and track condition here.  The weather looks like it may be a bit wet a few hours before post time before stopping.  I'm assuming firm turf for now.

Because this is the work week, and I'm a working class stiff, I won't be conducting the usual video and trip analysis here in the blog.  If you are new to The Turk, please check out my achieve, as I put alot of time and attention into trip handicapping and the results have been well worth it.

Let's get it on!




The Turk is a form handicapper who utilizes video analysis and analytics to form base handicaps which I use to primarily pick exacta bets.  In calendar year 2018 I return $1.65 for each $1 invested.  With older turf runners I believe in late turn of foot, tactical speed depending on track configuration, race distance and post position, class, and trip analysis over past several races.  These Kentucky Downs races are serious challenges and the conditions on this race, "...which have not won a sweepstakes in 2018..." opens up the field widely.

None of these runners scream "chalk".  The morning line favorite is 4-1  Undrafted.  Wesley Ward's runners Undrafted and Master Merion are making their first starts since late June at Ascot.  Undrafted has $1.4 MM in career earnings with 12 Win-Places but is winless in 4 Kentucky Downs starts.

Instead of rambling like I normally do, I'm going to let the base handicap stand and I will post an update with my selections prior to the race.

UPDATE 11:12 ET 9/5

Undrafted/8 and Conquest Panthera/9, along with All Right/8 are early scratches.  Undrafted (20%) and Conquest Panthera (16.67%) represented 37% winning odds by the morning line.  This thing is wide open. 

I'll be back with my picks before post time.  

Have fun (mid week) with this one.

Turk Out!

Lessons of a 30+ Year Handicapper

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk blog.  I'm not handicapping today, just relaxing.  I put in my work this weekend and ultimately bet on only four races.  As I said in just my last blog post, I'm a high volume handicapper and a low volume race track investor.  I had some tough luck at Kentucky Downs this weekend, some good handicapping and some bad bet construction actually while at Saratoga I intentionally discounted Yoshida (Jpn) in the Woodward Stakes and have to live with that.

I told my readers the following, "...Handicappers just need to keep plugging away and not be emotional.  Nothing I do today can make up for yesterday, today is about today, race 1 is about 1,  race 2 is about race 2, etc.  When you are a high volume handicapper/low volume bettor-investor as I am you have to demand a return that will cover these sort of misstep days.  I'm a lifetime slightly positive ROI player, but its hard to make up the losses. It's hard to be "unemotional".  It's taken a lot of mental training and focus to look back on the handicaps objectively, glean what I can from them and move on."

I mean every word of that.  I'm nearly 52 years old. I've been handicapping since 1986 (32 years this past August) and I've been a horse racing fan since 1978 (40 years this past May).  I'm in the prime of my life and I'm pretty good at picking horses and I just hope, like older handicappers did for me, I can impart some of those painful (read expensive) lessons onto my readers.  I was rewarded with a Del Mar Derby win of $251.20 net making my weekend stat line as follows:

• $76 Wagered on Four Exactas
• $291.70 Returned
• $3.84 Returned for each $1 Wagered

G2 Del Mar Derby; 1 1/8 Miles on Firm Turf



Tourist Mile; 1 Mile on Firm Turf at Kentucky Downs



One Dreamer: 1 Mile 70 Yards on Firm Turf at Kentucky Downs



The Woodward Stakes G1; 1 1/8 Miles on Fast Dirt



I woke up on Sunday Morning a bit dejected.  I felt like I handicapped very well over the past few days but I wasn't rewarded.  It's easy to spout off about how you should conduct your business as a handicapper and its another completely to act professionally on your own advice, but I did it.  I gave myself a few minutes to understand where I went wrong.

• In the Tourist Mile, I missed the #8 horse in the top spot.  I had it wrote down properly in my book but in my hurry to place my bets before I had to go out (first mistake- I was betting about 2 hours before the race)  I screwed up entering the bet.  That screw-up cost my $55.10.  Every time this happens I tell myself it will never happen again.
• In The One Dreamer, I overbet because of mistake #1:  I wasn't home to watch the Will Pay's and my bet was too pricy, betting $28 to "win" $21.50.  I was off to a great start this weekend! On Leave, who I didn't think was a slam dunk, was a pretty heavy chalk in hindsight.  
• In the Woodward, rip up the tickets, I didn't do much right there.  I did favor Leofric to have a big day and I gambled he'd be my "Kazan" in this race, the long odds filling the place spot in the Exacta.  Centimeters away.  Luck goes both ways.  

I put yesterday behind me and I focused on the Del Mar card today with a primary target of the turf race Del Mar Derby.

• In the Del Mar Derby, it all came together, good handicapping and good luck:  One more hop and River Boyne (Ire) catches Kazan (Ire) and the exacta is paying $20.
• Prerace I said some smart things:
• River Boyne (Ire) was tepid and hadn't had a signature moment yet.
• I liked the late closing speed of Kazan (Ire) for the exacta.
• I'd like Ride a Comet at worse than 4-1 and he went to post 5-1.

That's the line between positive ROI over time and being a losing horse player.  It's a razor thin margin and the best way to stay positive is to keep working at your handicapping and your bet construction and cash management.  Focus on what you are good at.  For me, I've narrowed my focus to exactas.  I left a Trifecta and Superfecta on the table ($1,600 how I would have bet them) but that's not my focus anymore.  I've hit big takes in the past and its thrilling, but I'm just not interested in the roller coaster of emotions that comes with chasing the big strikes.  I'm Ok with low risk/good reward.

I'm working on growing my blog and developing a few more social interactions through it.  I had a small but tight group of handicapper friends I knew and sometimes collaborated with but they have moved on.  Taking the long view serves me well in life and as a handicapper.  Just keep plugging away is today's message.  As long as you are a skilled handicapper, the betting will follow.

Happy Labor Day!

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Del Mar Derby G2

Hold all tickets?  Toss all tickets!

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk.  The Turk has never been much of a Del Mar player (Hollywood Park yes, Santa Anita yes, Del Mar not so much).  I was really turned off by the fake dirt track and how it played and I just stopped playing.  Lately, I haven't been playing because quite frankly I've liked the racing out East better.  I lived in San Diego, I do much business in San Diego, so this isn't a West Coast- East Coast thing, it's just a handicapping thing: I don't have time to dedicate to Del Mar.  All that said and I really wanted to play this closing weekend and quite frankly I'm glad I did because I see a lot of betting potential with the Grade 2 Del Mar Derby, a 1 1/8 Mile Turf race starting in the chute.  River Boyne (Ire) has had a terrific season so far but his chalk today is light and I'm on the hunt for a well paying exacta.  During the week I'll lick my chops from yesterday's handicapping.  I did some good things at Kentucky Downs, and I really felt like I had solid long prices handicapped well in the Woodward Stakes at Saratoga, but the results weren't there.  I excluded Yosida (Jpn) from my exacta, a decision I won't second guess and Leofric was centimeters away from Place as a morning line 20-1.  Handicappers just need to keep plugging away and not be emotional.  Nothing I do today can make up for yesterday, today is about today, race 1 is about 1 race 2 is about race 2, etc.  When you are a high volume handicapper/low volume bettor-investor as I am you have to demand a return that will cover these sort of misstep days.  Much of the time talk like that is bravado.  I'm a lifetime slightly positive ROI player, but its hard to make up the losses. It's hard to be "unemotional".  It's taken a lot of mental training and focus to look back on the handicaps objectively, glean what i can from them and move on. 

Let's get it on!




Starting with some video review:


Dmr   La Jolla G3; 1 1/16 Firm Turf 5 August 2018



Arawak has a 104 Late Pace Timeform pace fig and he shows it here.  I like that Bejarano is back up but I don't like he's picking up 4 pounds.  Hideous lifetime stats of 0 wins in 7 starts Turf, winless in two starts at DMR and 2 wins in 14 career starts.  Could he get Place?  Absolutely, but he needs the right trip, right pace, he needs a lot to happen. 

River Boyne (Ire) has done little wrong: 6 of 8 in the money over turf, 2 of 2 at this distance, same weight carry as last effort.  Nice consistent tactical speed which Prat, up, will unleash with 1/8 to go.  I don't like that he doesn't really have a signature win and today could be it, but I think he's a tepid chalk that could get caught if the pace is slow early and the faster one run horses take aim late. 


SA Eddie Logan $78K; 1 Mile Firm Turf  29 Dec 2017



I don't usually bother with older video but you have to go back in time to opening day at Santa Anita in very late December 2017 to see how talented Pubilius Syrus is.  Training very sharply between 3 and 6f for Conditioner Cerin who is 24% winner in 25 tries with a +180 day layoff.  Cerin also winless in 18 graded stakes over past year. Every dog has a day.


Dmr OC80K N1X; 1 1/8 Miles Firm Turf  Race 6 19 July 2018



Andesh (Ire) has little excuse here and should have done better.  Blinkers go on for D'Amato who is a 26% winner on 2nd off 45-180 layoff.  Majestic Eagle I'm discounting at my own peril.  Flat speed, I'm just expecting him to be gobbled up in the stretch.  I love his running lines: "...held...held...gamely...rallied...".  I like gutty for Place and Show often over talent. 

SAR Hall of Fame Stakes G2; 1 1/16 yielding turf



With Ride a Comet, Trainer Mark Casse ships West out of Saratoga.  4 of 4 in the money over turf with 3 wins, improving Beyers and late breaking.  I'd like him better at 4-1 or worse. 


Del Mar Oaks G1; 1 1/8 Miles Firm Turf



It's a very confident race Animosity is running against fillies before either a bad step or even a rail bump derailed her.  I bet this seemed like a good idea to Trainer Gallagher before drawing post 12.  I'm torn that he shouldn't have just scratched her and ran her in a better spot somewhere else.  I do respect her though and we can assume she'll hustle out and try to get a better tactical position. 

I like for Exacta purposes Kazan (Ire) with his late speed and possibly Desert Stone (Ire) but I'm not that high on the #2 horse.  He's jumping in class, in distance.  I did like his rally to finish fourth  last time out. 

So what to do with all this?

I'm going to construct an Exacta along these lines:

6-3-8

OVER

6-3-8-2-5-7-10-11-12

$1 bet=$24

And refine to something like:

6-8

OVER

6-8-3-5-7-10-11-12

$1=$14

Have fun friends!

Turk Out

The Nomination Is In: Kentucky Downs Race 7: The One Dreamer $250K

On Leave:  Photo by Christie DeBernardis

Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk.  I'm back this weekend with another very good betting race, the $250,000 One Dreamer at Kentucky Downs.  I've already posted wide open G1 Woodward Stakes and the race after this, the Tourist Mile $750,000.  Light chalks in all with big fields and I'm on the hunt for big payout exactas in each.

I just love Kentucky Downs.  I love the sort of horse it attracts too: hard knocking, veteran, geldings, fringe stakes runners, gutty and under performers alike.  I could watch video on these races for prep all day, and what a better way for the Turk to unwind this Labor day weekend.  I work hard, I travel constantly and quite frankly, I'm often tired and on the edge of mental exhaustion.  What keeps me plugging along at a high level is taking time before bed and on the weekends to dedicate time to my passion of horse racing.  You have to have an outlet.  I tell my staff constantly, what we do is a marathon, not a sprint.  It's mostly true, very often like any race, there are sprints within the marathon.  The Turk was raised by Momma and Papa Turk to work hard, work the pants off of everyone and advance through your merits.  I'm in the final furlongs of a career and its this horse racing blog that gives me my outlet and pleasure.  I hope my crazy and wild readers enjoy it as well.  It's now September 2018.  I started doing this in September 2008.  Time flies....

You'll find information here from what's available for the Equibase Kentucky Downs profile for Scratches/Changes etc.  The weather?  Looks drier than I expected.  I'm waiting to see what the condition of the turf is but I can't imagine its worse than Good.

Let's go!

Ellis Park:  1 1/16 Miles:  Last Race Effort on July 8th for Dubara (GB)/2, I Remember Mama/4 Youngest Daughter/5,  Burma Road/6 and Also Eligible Red Dane (Ity)





Arlington Park Race 6: Modesty G3; 1 3/16th on Firm Turf on July 7th with Celestial Insight/1 (#4), Con Te Partiro/7 (#11) and Prado's Sweet Ride/9 (#8)

Finish G3 Modesty: Twin Spires TV

I'm not sure what to takeaway from this:  Prado's Sweet Ride at 11.9-1 has one big run, Con Te Partiro at 9.3-1 comes late but well beaten and Celestial Insight at 3.3-1 buckles when the pace quickened.  One race back of this in the Grade 3 Mint Julep the 5 YO mare out of Scat Daddy (rest in peace) took the lead at the 1/16th pole only to lose by a neck, while the #8 horse in that race, Youngest Daughter cracks under pressure.

Mint Julep G3 1/16th to Go: Twin Spires TV

Youngest Daughter with no excuses, last few running lines;  "...faltered late, weakened, Bobbled Start, weakened, faltered, belated".  That's not good.  She was a vet scratch August 5th.   Her adjusted 1/4 time in Thorograph race shape is third fastest at :24.92 but if she can't finish better it won't help.  Celestrial Insight gets pilot Rocco back up and I think has a chance to finish top 4.

English Affair is intriguing to me.  The 4 YO English Channel filly is 6 of 8 in the money on turf, with 6 Win-Place finishes in 9 starts.  In the next video, the Kentucky Downs Ladies Turf Preview held at Ellis Park on August 5th breaking with odds of 8.3-1 she closed fast.  Same for second race back with a running line of "gaining".  Post 10 and an opening 1/4 from Thorograph race shape of :25.62 means she may get hung up wide into first turn.



On Leave, Conditioned by McGaughey with Geroux up for Stuart Janney (White/Cherry Belt/Cherry Sleeves) a 5 YO War Front Mare, has $918K in earnings in 18 starts with 7 wins.  4 of 5 in the money at the distance, 14 of 18 in the money over grass and a race third best adjusted quarter time of :24.97 that should allow him to move over out of the gate from post 11.  Blinkers On.

Two back for On Leave is a game Distaff Mile on Kentucky Derby day at Churchill Downs.  At 4.1-1 the mare lost in last few hops to the classy Proctor's Ledge.



Last Promise Kept breaks from post 12 and has little tactical speed but a big closing run with a late turn of foot Timeform late race pace fig of 103.  This is two races back in June in Delaware an OC 25K N2x.



UPDATE 2:46 PM:  Scratch 1 Celestial Insight and 7 Con Te Parito




Another very good betting race this weekend.  I'll be assembling some sort of Exacta that will look something along these lines:

$1 exacta 11-1-9 OVER 11-1-9-4-7-12-10-8 for $21.  I'll be watching the Will Pays prior to the start of this race to exclude anything that doesn't seem value driven,

Have fun!

Turk out