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| On Leave: Photo by Christie DeBernardis |
I just love Kentucky Downs. I love the sort of horse it attracts too: hard knocking, veteran, geldings, fringe stakes runners, gutty and under performers alike. I could watch video on these races for prep all day, and what a better way for the Turk to unwind this Labor day weekend. I work hard, I travel constantly and quite frankly, I'm often tired and on the edge of mental exhaustion. What keeps me plugging along at a high level is taking time before bed and on the weekends to dedicate time to my passion of horse racing. You have to have an outlet. I tell my staff constantly, what we do is a marathon, not a sprint. It's mostly true, very often like any race, there are sprints within the marathon. The Turk was raised by Momma and Papa Turk to work hard, work the pants off of everyone and advance through your merits. I'm in the final furlongs of a career and its this horse racing blog that gives me my outlet and pleasure. I hope my crazy and wild readers enjoy it as well. It's now September 2018. I started doing this in September 2008. Time flies....
You'll find information here from what's available for the Equibase Kentucky Downs profile for Scratches/Changes etc. The weather? Looks drier than I expected. I'm waiting to see what the condition of the turf is but I can't imagine its worse than Good.
Let's go!
Ellis Park: 1 1/16 Miles: Last Race Effort on July 8th for Dubara (GB)/2, I Remember Mama/4 Youngest Daughter/5, Burma Road/6 and Also Eligible Red Dane (Ity)
Arlington Park Race 6: Modesty G3; 1 3/16th on Firm Turf on July 7th with Celestial Insight/1 (#4), Con Te Partiro/7 (#11) and Prado's Sweet Ride/9 (#8)
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| Finish G3 Modesty: Twin Spires TV |
I'm not sure what to takeaway from this: Prado's Sweet Ride at 11.9-1 has one big run, Con Te Partiro at 9.3-1 comes late but well beaten and Celestial Insight at 3.3-1 buckles when the pace quickened. One race back of this in the Grade 3 Mint Julep the 5 YO mare out of Scat Daddy (rest in peace) took the lead at the 1/16th pole only to lose by a neck, while the #8 horse in that race, Youngest Daughter cracks under pressure.
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| Mint Julep G3 1/16th to Go: Twin Spires TV |
Youngest Daughter with no excuses, last few running lines; "...faltered late, weakened, Bobbled Start, weakened, faltered, belated". That's not good. She was a vet scratch August 5th. Her adjusted 1/4 time in Thorograph race shape is third fastest at :24.92 but if she can't finish better it won't help. Celestrial Insight gets pilot Rocco back up and I think has a chance to finish top 4.
English Affair is intriguing to me. The 4 YO English Channel filly is 6 of 8 in the money on turf, with 6 Win-Place finishes in 9 starts. In the next video, the Kentucky Downs Ladies Turf Preview held at Ellis Park on August 5th breaking with odds of 8.3-1 she closed fast. Same for second race back with a running line of "gaining". Post 10 and an opening 1/4 from Thorograph race shape of :25.62 means she may get hung up wide into first turn.
On Leave, Conditioned by McGaughey with Geroux up for Stuart Janney (White/Cherry Belt/Cherry Sleeves) a 5 YO War Front Mare, has $918K in earnings in 18 starts with 7 wins. 4 of 5 in the money at the distance, 14 of 18 in the money over grass and a race third best adjusted quarter time of :24.97 that should allow him to move over out of the gate from post 11. Blinkers On.
Two back for On Leave is a game Distaff Mile on Kentucky Derby day at Churchill Downs. At 4.1-1 the mare lost in last few hops to the classy Proctor's Ledge.
Last Promise Kept breaks from post 12 and has little tactical speed but a big closing run with a late turn of foot Timeform late race pace fig of 103. This is two races back in June in Delaware an OC 25K N2x.
UPDATE 2:46 PM: Scratch 1 Celestial Insight and 7 Con Te Parito
Another very good betting race this weekend. I'll be assembling some sort of Exacta that will look something along these lines:
$1 exacta 11-1-9 OVER 11-1-9-4-7-12-10-8 for $21. I'll be watching the Will Pays prior to the start of this race to exclude anything that doesn't seem value driven,
Have fun!
Turk out
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