The Nomination Is In: The Del Mar Derby G2

Hold all tickets?  Toss all tickets!

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk.  The Turk has never been much of a Del Mar player (Hollywood Park yes, Santa Anita yes, Del Mar not so much).  I was really turned off by the fake dirt track and how it played and I just stopped playing.  Lately, I haven't been playing because quite frankly I've liked the racing out East better.  I lived in San Diego, I do much business in San Diego, so this isn't a West Coast- East Coast thing, it's just a handicapping thing: I don't have time to dedicate to Del Mar.  All that said and I really wanted to play this closing weekend and quite frankly I'm glad I did because I see a lot of betting potential with the Grade 2 Del Mar Derby, a 1 1/8 Mile Turf race starting in the chute.  River Boyne (Ire) has had a terrific season so far but his chalk today is light and I'm on the hunt for a well paying exacta.  During the week I'll lick my chops from yesterday's handicapping.  I did some good things at Kentucky Downs, and I really felt like I had solid long prices handicapped well in the Woodward Stakes at Saratoga, but the results weren't there.  I excluded Yosida (Jpn) from my exacta, a decision I won't second guess and Leofric was centimeters away from Place as a morning line 20-1.  Handicappers just need to keep plugging away and not be emotional.  Nothing I do today can make up for yesterday, today is about today, race 1 is about 1 race 2 is about race 2, etc.  When you are a high volume handicapper/low volume bettor-investor as I am you have to demand a return that will cover these sort of misstep days.  Much of the time talk like that is bravado.  I'm a lifetime slightly positive ROI player, but its hard to make up the losses. It's hard to be "unemotional".  It's taken a lot of mental training and focus to look back on the handicaps objectively, glean what i can from them and move on. 

Let's get it on!




Starting with some video review:


Dmr   La Jolla G3; 1 1/16 Firm Turf 5 August 2018



Arawak has a 104 Late Pace Timeform pace fig and he shows it here.  I like that Bejarano is back up but I don't like he's picking up 4 pounds.  Hideous lifetime stats of 0 wins in 7 starts Turf, winless in two starts at DMR and 2 wins in 14 career starts.  Could he get Place?  Absolutely, but he needs the right trip, right pace, he needs a lot to happen. 

River Boyne (Ire) has done little wrong: 6 of 8 in the money over turf, 2 of 2 at this distance, same weight carry as last effort.  Nice consistent tactical speed which Prat, up, will unleash with 1/8 to go.  I don't like that he doesn't really have a signature win and today could be it, but I think he's a tepid chalk that could get caught if the pace is slow early and the faster one run horses take aim late. 


SA Eddie Logan $78K; 1 Mile Firm Turf  29 Dec 2017



I don't usually bother with older video but you have to go back in time to opening day at Santa Anita in very late December 2017 to see how talented Pubilius Syrus is.  Training very sharply between 3 and 6f for Conditioner Cerin who is 24% winner in 25 tries with a +180 day layoff.  Cerin also winless in 18 graded stakes over past year. Every dog has a day.


Dmr OC80K N1X; 1 1/8 Miles Firm Turf  Race 6 19 July 2018



Andesh (Ire) has little excuse here and should have done better.  Blinkers go on for D'Amato who is a 26% winner on 2nd off 45-180 layoff.  Majestic Eagle I'm discounting at my own peril.  Flat speed, I'm just expecting him to be gobbled up in the stretch.  I love his running lines: "...held...held...gamely...rallied...".  I like gutty for Place and Show often over talent. 

SAR Hall of Fame Stakes G2; 1 1/16 yielding turf



With Ride a Comet, Trainer Mark Casse ships West out of Saratoga.  4 of 4 in the money over turf with 3 wins, improving Beyers and late breaking.  I'd like him better at 4-1 or worse. 


Del Mar Oaks G1; 1 1/8 Miles Firm Turf



It's a very confident race Animosity is running against fillies before either a bad step or even a rail bump derailed her.  I bet this seemed like a good idea to Trainer Gallagher before drawing post 12.  I'm torn that he shouldn't have just scratched her and ran her in a better spot somewhere else.  I do respect her though and we can assume she'll hustle out and try to get a better tactical position. 

I like for Exacta purposes Kazan (Ire) with his late speed and possibly Desert Stone (Ire) but I'm not that high on the #2 horse.  He's jumping in class, in distance.  I did like his rally to finish fourth  last time out. 

So what to do with all this?

I'm going to construct an Exacta along these lines:

6-3-8

OVER

6-3-8-2-5-7-10-11-12

$1 bet=$24

And refine to something like:

6-8

OVER

6-8-3-5-7-10-11-12

$1=$14

Have fun friends!

Turk Out