The Nomination Is In: The Belle Mahone $100K at Woodbine

Gamble's Ghost- Photo by Michael Burns

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk.  I woke up yesterday with a terrible headache, the sort of headache I get when a serious change in the weather is upon us.  The headache sapped me of my willingness to work my way through 28 pages of Past Performance for races 6-10 at Kentucky Downs.  I did enjoy the races and I'm disappointed I missed out on such a lovely day of opportunities at the betting window.  September to me, with the buzz of Saratoga and Del Mar behind us, is about some of my lesser played yet favorite tracks:  Kentucky Downs, Presque Isle Downs, Woodbine and PARX. There is a little biy of something interesting to be found in September at each of these tracks leading up to big weekends at Belmont and Santa Anita one month before Breeders' Cup Weekend.  The rhythm of the race calendar is alive in my mind and with the coming Fall comes these tracks, and today I'm playing Woodbine mostly to avoid the rain that will make a mess of many other places.

Today's featured race for blogging purposes is the $100,000 Belle Mahone Stakes, a 1 1/16 Mile fake dirt affair for Fillies and Mares 3 YO and up.

The Morning Line favorite is 7-5 Gamble's Ghost, pictured above.  in my Turk Fair Line, I think his odds are close to 1-1, a 50% chance of winning, a rare value for me to assign but it's hard to argue against last year's winner not repeating.  Let's get after it!




Gamble's Ghost is a beast: 9 wins in 13 Fake Dirt starts, 6 wins in 8 starts at this distance, 9 wins in 13 Woodbine starts, $720,000 in earnings .  Zero wins in six starts away from Woodbine and Zero Wins on Turf and Zero wins on Dirt.  This horse likes the fake dirt surface.  Here she is in the Grade 3 Ontario Matron.




I'm a gambler, and I see a 1-1 horse as having a 50% chance of losing as well as having a 50% chance of winning.  The ONLY reason for me to play this race is the off chance she gets beat.

If you are going to bet the heavy chalk loses, you better have someone who can win.  My choice is Superioritycomplex (Ire), The 4 YO Hard Spun Irish daughter out of Justlookdonttouch (Ire).  

Watch this very professional late turn of foot from her at Arlington over yielding turf in mid August.  She's the five horse  with dark blue silks, about 6 lengths back at top of stretch before drawing off.

  

My Arch Enemy, a 4 YO Arch for conditioner Mark Casse is early speed who should hold the rail most of the way.  6 Show finishes in 12 lifetime starts. 

Giada Vegas returns to action after a layoff since mid February.  Also conditioned by Mark Casse, he's 18% off +180 Day break.  3 of 3 at Woodbine and 3 of 3 at the Distance for the Scat Daddy 5 YO.

I'll be playing the exact and the 20 cent Super based on my bet selections listed above.

Have fun friends!  We'll be back mid week for the last two days of the Kentucky Downs Meet. 

Turk Out!