Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk blog. I'm not handicapping today, just relaxing. I put in my work this weekend and ultimately bet on only four races. As I said in just my last blog post, I'm a high volume handicapper and a low volume race track investor. I had some tough luck at Kentucky Downs this weekend, some good handicapping and some bad bet construction actually while at Saratoga I intentionally discounted Yoshida (Jpn) in the Woodward Stakes and have to live with that.
I told my readers the following, "...Handicappers just need to keep plugging away and not be emotional. Nothing I do today can make up for yesterday, today is about today, race 1 is about 1, race 2 is about race 2, etc. When you are a high volume handicapper/low volume bettor-investor as I am you have to demand a return that will cover these sort of misstep days. I'm a lifetime slightly positive ROI player, but its hard to make up the losses. It's hard to be "unemotional". It's taken a lot of mental training and focus to look back on the handicaps objectively, glean what I can from them and move on."
I mean every word of that. I'm nearly 52 years old. I've been handicapping since 1986 (32 years this past August) and I've been a horse racing fan since 1978 (40 years this past May). I'm in the prime of my life and I'm pretty good at picking horses and I just hope, like older handicappers did for me, I can impart some of those painful (read expensive) lessons onto my readers. I was rewarded with a Del Mar Derby win of $251.20 net making my weekend stat line as follows:
I told my readers the following, "...Handicappers just need to keep plugging away and not be emotional. Nothing I do today can make up for yesterday, today is about today, race 1 is about 1, race 2 is about race 2, etc. When you are a high volume handicapper/low volume bettor-investor as I am you have to demand a return that will cover these sort of misstep days. I'm a lifetime slightly positive ROI player, but its hard to make up the losses. It's hard to be "unemotional". It's taken a lot of mental training and focus to look back on the handicaps objectively, glean what I can from them and move on."
I mean every word of that. I'm nearly 52 years old. I've been handicapping since 1986 (32 years this past August) and I've been a horse racing fan since 1978 (40 years this past May). I'm in the prime of my life and I'm pretty good at picking horses and I just hope, like older handicappers did for me, I can impart some of those painful (read expensive) lessons onto my readers. I was rewarded with a Del Mar Derby win of $251.20 net making my weekend stat line as follows:
- $76 Wagered on Four Exactas
- $291.70 Returned
- $3.84 Returned for each $1 Wagered
G2 Del Mar Derby; 1 1/8 Miles on Firm Turf
Tourist Mile; 1 Mile on Firm Turf at Kentucky Downs
One Dreamer: 1 Mile 70 Yards on Firm Turf at Kentucky Downs
The Woodward Stakes G1; 1 1/8 Miles on Fast Dirt
I woke up on Sunday Morning a bit dejected. I felt like I handicapped very well over the past few days but I wasn't rewarded. It's easy to spout off about how you should conduct your business as a handicapper and its another completely to act professionally on your own advice, but I did it. I gave myself a few minutes to understand where I went wrong.
- In the Tourist Mile, I missed the #8 horse in the top spot. I had it wrote down properly in my book but in my hurry to place my bets before I had to go out (first mistake- I was betting about 2 hours before the race) I screwed up entering the bet. That screw-up cost my $55.10. Every time this happens I tell myself it will never happen again.
- In The One Dreamer, I overbet because of mistake #1: I wasn't home to watch the Will Pay's and my bet was too pricy, betting $28 to "win" $21.50. I was off to a great start this weekend! On Leave, who I didn't think was a slam dunk, was a pretty heavy chalk in hindsight.
- In the Woodward, rip up the tickets, I didn't do much right there. I did favor Leofric to have a big day and I gambled he'd be my "Kazan" in this race, the long odds filling the place spot in the Exacta. Centimeters away. Luck goes both ways.
I put yesterday behind me and I focused on the Del Mar card today with a primary target of the turf race Del Mar Derby.
- In the Del Mar Derby, it all came together, good handicapping and good luck: One more hop and River Boyne (Ire) catches Kazan (Ire) and the exacta is paying $20.
- Prerace I said some smart things:
- River Boyne (Ire) was tepid and hadn't had a signature moment yet.
- I liked the late closing speed of Kazan (Ire) for the exacta.
- I'd like Ride a Comet at worse than 4-1 and he went to post 5-1.
That's the line between positive ROI over time and being a losing horse player. It's a razor thin margin and the best way to stay positive is to keep working at your handicapping and your bet construction and cash management. Focus on what you are good at. For me, I've narrowed my focus to exactas. I left a Trifecta and Superfecta on the table ($1,600 how I would have bet them) but that's not my focus anymore. I've hit big takes in the past and its thrilling, but I'm just not interested in the roller coaster of emotions that comes with chasing the big strikes. I'm Ok with low risk/good reward.
I'm working on growing my blog and developing a few more social interactions through it. I had a small but tight group of handicapper friends I knew and sometimes collaborated with but they have moved on. Taking the long view serves me well in life and as a handicapper. Just keep plugging away is today's message. As long as you are a skilled handicapper, the betting will follow.
Happy Labor Day!I'm working on growing my blog and developing a few more social interactions through it. I had a small but tight group of handicapper friends I knew and sometimes collaborated with but they have moved on. Taking the long view serves me well in life and as a handicapper. Just keep plugging away is today's message. As long as you are a skilled handicapper, the betting will follow.
Turk Out!
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