The Perryville, G3, about 7f, for 3 yo. and up.
There are two A type horses in the Turk’s bracket, and unfortunately I don’t disagree with the racing secretary. Horse #1, I’m So Lucky, is the ML favorite at 7-2. He raced to Show money in the G1 Kings Bishop in Saratoga on Travers Day. Since then he’s had three works at KEE since 12 September. His last three Beyer’s were 98, 99 and 97. He’s fresh and he has Robby Albarado up. I like his chances to win this race a lot, so as I’m typing I’m thinking of my strategy and hopefully when I’m done typing it will sound semi-coherent.
My other A group horse is Fidelio. This horse has kicked the class door open a bit, especially when compared to Ready’s Image, a solid B+ in this race, but with quite a resume. Fidelio has only one win on poly, when he broke his maiden at Woodbine. He’s got wildly erratic Beyer’s, with a 71, 92, 101 and a 55 in his last four. After that 55 in the G2 Amsterdam, he was freshened with six works at SAR, BEL and finally KEE. I think this horse is capable of bouncing back today to an upper 90 or even a 101 Beyer. His ML is 3-1, and if money chases some other horses, I like Fidelio a lot, especially >4-1.
Ready’s Image is entering his 7th graded stakes race. This is another horse shouting out to be freshened, after posting a 52 Beyer in his last race on July 6th at BEL. The racing line says one word “stopped”. Ouch! This horse seemed to hit his high water mark in Saratoga in 2007 and has been on a decline since. He started 2008 with a 94 Beyer in May and has done nothing since. Six straight 4f breezes that appear unspectacular bring him to today, where his name and his resume should be a magnet for the money. I’m hoping this is the case because while I’d like to see this horse do well, I’d be betting without any serious reason to believe that Ready’s ready to win again.
I think the 5, 10 and 11 horses could challenge. From the 5 post, is Eaton’sGift with Calvin Bo-Rail up. This is a G2 winner as well as a KEE poly track winner. He’s a ML 8-1 and I might try to get him into an exotic play, but I’m not sure he can win unless things break perfect.
The 10 horse is Hatta Fort (GB) who is a ML 8-1 as well. This Godolphin racerdid post a 99 Beyer on this very course in April, but ran a very inconsistent 2008. I think he’s more then capable of running a 92 Beyer today.
The 11 horse is Liberty Bull who is a ML 12-1. He won a 6f NX3 his last time out a PID but was smoked at the G2 Arkansas Derby the race before that. He has freshened with 4 works since 30 August and is looking for a bounce back to a 91 Beyer range.
My C Group I don’t think much of. Horse #2, Nickel Shooter is a ML 30-1. I have him rated better then that but no better then an 87 Beyer. West Express is the 7 horse. He’s won on this track, but I think he’s stepping up against too many good horses. I have him no better then an 88 Beyer. Same goes for the 8 horse, Meal Penalty except I don’t think he’ll run better then 85 Beyer. Ditto for the 9 horse, Wise Answer and the 12 horse, Amazing Results.
I have one train wreck D Class. Godolphin Gray is at the wrong track, running with the wrong horses and in the wrong class. No better then an 80 Beyer today.