Saturday, October 4, 2008

October 4th 2008: BEL Race 8

Belmont Race 8: The Frizette, for 2yo Fillies, 1 mile on main track.

The Turk likes to crunch data, and two year old fillies racing in early October don't give you alot of PP data that easily digestible. You have to look at alot of angles and these races are time consuming for the studious Turk. The Little Turk will undoubtedly spend 20 seconds and pick a horse to show, but then again, he's my boy.

I see to pretty classy and consistant horses in this group. The Morning Line chalk is the 5 horse, Persistently. She's a closer riden by Alan Garcia for 3 races now, including a G2 place on 13 September against a really game Doremi...(great race call by the way). It's a new distance, but she has improving Beyer's including the races second best at 85 her last time out. She's aclimated to Belmont and I think the money will chase her down below 2-1.

The only A horse I see is in the 10 spot, Gemswick Park. She's aclimated to Belmont and owns the race's highest Beyer at 91 her last time out. She'll have a new jock I recok, it's a new distance, and its her first Graded Stakes event. She has early speed and will need it from her starting position. I'm looking for value better then here 3.5-1 Morning Line and will bet to win if >4-1.

the rest of the field did little to inspire me. I have two B horses. In the 3 spot is War Echo,owner of a lifetime best 70 Beyer after 2 races. She did run this course and distance to win her last time out. Asmussen owns a gaudy 50% win rate this meet. Would have like to have seen longer, harder drills since 10 September.

My other B is in the 2 post, Royal Ballade. She has a 65 Beyer in her only race and has never faced a Graded Stakes group. It's a new distance with a new jockey. Her ML is 6-1 and I'm guessing she'll go lower. She's worth a flyer at better then 8-1.

The C group includes the following in no particular order:

The 1 horse, Sky Diva. She's ran the distance but she has a lot to overcome
The 4 horse, Miss Ocean City. Very sharp work and she ran an 81 in July to break her maiden.
The 6 horse, Collegiate, ran a 91 in July to break her maiden at 5f but has regressed in longer races.
The 9 horse, Heavenly Vision, ran an 81 in August at 6f to break her maiden, but never challenged in the G2 Matron. A new jock for Bob Baffert's (36% win at meet) filly.

My D group includes the 8 horse, Coffee in Bed. She's got consistent mediocre Beyer's, but she did break her maiden at a mile and 70 yards last time out. I think she's in over her head.

And finally, the 7 horse, Winning Brew. She is intriguing. She puts blinkers on today. She had a strong work at 5f a few days ago. She ran a G1, the Spinaway, in August. Betting her would be a blind shot in the dark, but the price will be very big.

All that said and the Turk can't argue against the ML Chalk, Persistently. I'm going to bet a 5-10 exacta and/or a 5-10-3 trifecta.

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