Saturday, October 4, 2008

October 4th, 2008: BEL Race 9

G1, The Champagne for 2yos. 1 Mile on Main track.

For all the horses, this is a new distance. Some strong Beyer's in this group as well, and 6 of the 10 horses have run and G2 or G1 level.

I have a contrarian position the chalk. I like the 7 horse Ventana, whose ML is 8-1. This Baffert horse won at 6f his last time out and since has had a string of consitant and solid works atBelmont. I'll be looking for real value here on a win bet.

The Morning Line set by the track was contrarian in its own right. Hello Broadway, a half brother of Nobiz Like Showbiz and trained by Barclay Tagg, has the 6th best Beyer in the race, but there is lots to like and little seperating the talent. Hello Braodway in the 4 post won at Saratoga on 30 August at 61/2f where he really dug his heels in and gutted out the victory. He's had a string of solid works at Belmont as well and will go well today. There should be value still for a chalk whose only at 3.5-1. If he's pressed down >4.5-1 I think you have to think hard on him.

The only G1 winner of this bunch is the 3 horse, Vineyard Haven, winner of the Hopeful at Saratoga on 1 September. The knock on this win was that Cribnote was distracted and Munnings stumbled out of the gate. It's empty talk with such a small sample size of races to compare these horses with. The Turk dropped a buck and a half at Equibase getting a race chart and all it really told me was the Hopeful was packed with some quality horses. I'm hoping that money chases this horse down from its ML of 8-1, allowing some opportunies to arise elsewhere. At a minimum, he creates bettor anxiety.

Cribnote follows up that G1 debacle with blinkers on today. He owns the second best Beyer in the race and fought hard on the stretch to finish second in the Hopeful. He's starts the day at 4-1.

Munnings goes from the 10 post and his ML is 6-1. His third place, 75 Beyer in the Hopeful came six weeks after he had a 90 Beyer as the chalk to break his maiden. The horse has had steady works since the Hopeful and will have a new jock today.

That's a much bigger A Group then I'd like. The B Group is narrow:

Breakwater Edison ran in the Hopeful as well, finishing 4th after fading in the last few hops to the wire. He has a new rider today and has worked steady at Belmont for at least two weeks. His best Beyer was 89 in a G2 the race before the Hopeful. His ML is a low 12-1 and he starts in post 1

Brave Victory is a horse that I could argue is the dark chalk. He owns the best Beyer of 93, and before that he had a 91 and a 75 since mid July. Nick Zito is having a tough Belmont meet at 8% wins after 13 races, and he saddles a new jock today as Prado is aboard Vineyard Haven for this trip. This is the horse's first taste of a graded stakes race. Brave Victory breaks from the 8 spot and his ML is 6-1. We'll be watching this for a reasonable value play on a win bet.

Gone Astry goes off from ML 8-1 from the 9 post. He ran a 90 Beyer in front of the Turk at Saratoga on Traver's day and followed it up with an 83 in the G2 Futurity that Charitable Man won. he had a 4f bullet, besting 60 other horses on 30 September. I'm wondering if a fast surface today doesn't propell him back into the 90's?

The line between C and D group is blurry and I'll lump them together. A.P. Cardinal has shown nothing to get me excited. He does have stedy consistant works and coming off his maiden breaking win at 6f with a beyer of 64 on a fast track at Monmouth in mid September. His ML is 20-1 and I agree.

Girolamo is ridden today by Alan Garcia (16%) for Kiran McLaughlin(14%). He finished fourth in a G2 race Charitable Man won on 13 September at Belmont. He's a 10-1 ML and has had a consistant string of mid 80 Beyer's. Not sure if he isn't just a consistant also ran.


I'm looking for $2 for Ventana to win if I get >7-1 (probable)
I'm looking for $2 for Cribnote to win if I get > 6-1 (possible, not likely)
I'm looking for $2 for Vineyard Haven if I get >6-1 (possible)

I'm looking for $2 for Gone Astry or Brave Victory only if both >10-1 (doubtful)

I will bet a 7-3 exacta (Ventana and Vineyard Haven) for $2

I'll keep it to six bucks and hope for the best.

No comments: