Sunday, April 19, 2009

Post Race Analysis for Race Day April 18, 2009: The Lexington Stakes Grade II

Everything I learned about betting I learned from The Gambler. OK, that may be a bit of a stretch, but he teaches us one important lesson " You gotta know when to hold them, know when to fold them, know when to walk away and know when to run". Races like yesterday's Lexington Stakes are races that my internal Gambler tell me to run away from. They also present one of my favorite betting angles: The race with one big name who will go off at depressed odds by the betting public but are very vulnerable to being beaten at a horse that will pay significant dollars to win. The big name was Square Eddie, and the Turk didn't think that Square Eddie would win, nor did he, so the first part of my betting angle was something I felt good about. I didn't think Square Eddie would finish out of the money, I just didn't think he would win. That creates another opportunity: Boxed Exacta's and Trifecta's with Square Eddie anchoring and filling in with the next several horses in my handicap. Doing all those things still won't help when a horses like Advice and Conservative are allowed to hit the top the stretch and have clear sailing at other horses that made their moves too soon. Bottom line, I listened to the Gambler somewhat and only lost a $6 on this race. Watch the video and you'll shake your head like I'm shaking mine. Let it go, that's why they race on dirt, or fake dirt and not on paper.

Even when you lose, it's important to review your handicaps and learn from them. I swung for the fences with Masala, but the horse was one length off the lead at the 3/4 call and just lacked a finishing response. The final 2 1/2 furlongs clipped along at 30.77 seconds which projects to 36.9 seconds for final 3 furlongs. When watching the video, it was impressive how many horses could have won this race if they hit the button and matched that pace. Give credit to Advice with Gomez up and Conservative with Desormeaux up.

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