Wednesday, April 8, 2009

Post Race Analysis for April 8, 2009: The Beaumont Grade II

KEE Race 8: The Beaumont Grade II; 7f and 184 feet on fake dirt for 3 YO Fillies.

You can be right and wrong all at the same time when you handicap. It was clear that Selva had the speed and I believed pre race that Selva would be in front at the top of the stretch and that Evita Argentina would have to take a good trip and be in position to take the lead in the last 1/8. Well, yes Selva was right there, but she was trading hop for hop with War Kill, while Evita Argentina just never seemed to fire.

My handicap lined up pretty much with how the betting public read the race. One overwhelming truth is that when a horse wins contrary to what the bettors think, the payout will be sweet. War Kill held off Selva and bettors cashed $35.40 win tickets and $106.60 exactas.

Pre Race I felt strongly that Evita Argentina and Selva would finish 1-2. Checking the tote board, I didn't see any strong reason to bet a combination that would have paid less then 8 bucks. I passed.

Watching the limited race video, I don't really get this race, and as a handicapper, I like to pretend that I'm an NFL cornerbnack that just got burned: I get up, scrap the grass off my helmet, and the next simple tackle I make I celebrate like it's 1999. The truth is I stew when a race doesn't unfold the way I 'cap it. Looking at the PPs, you'll never pick War Kill. The subtle hint is Leparoux is up. Shrewd cappers are fond of a trainer's second entry as the sleeper entry, and Trainer McPeek had Loveyou Everybody, who I liked better even though it was the first race back after a long layoff. You need lots of information to beat this game, and information collection is a full time job, unless you cheat and pay lots of money to have boat loads of information funnelled to you, but you still have to analyze it. War Kill looked like she won easily and the PP's don't support the effort. You have to get over it and get back to the next race. For me that will be handicapping tomorrow's Grade I, The Vinery Madison, 7 F for F&M 4 YO and up. Turk favorite Ventura is back. The picture above is my work area with all the tools of this 'ol fashioned handicapper; PP's, trip notes, clocker comments, laptop and bourbon with diet Coke and lime. Giddy up.

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